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Stats Report
  • STAT BROTHERS

    Cut prediction: Masters Tournament

  • Hideki Matsuyama played the Par 5s at 4 under to lead him to a 69 on Thursday. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)Hideki Matsuyama played the Par 5s at 4 under to lead him to a 69 on Thursday. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

2021 Masters Tournament, Round 1

Scoring Conditions:

Overall: +2.5 strokes per round
Morning wave: +1.98
Afternoon wave: +3.02

Current cutline (top 50 and ties):

52 players at +2 or better (T31)

Top 3 projected cutline probabilities:

1. 4 over par: 39.5%
2. 5 over par: 24.7%
3. 3 over par: 24.2%

Top 10 win probabilities:

1. Justin Rose (1, -7, 25.0%)
2. Jon Rahm (T13, E, 7.4%)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (T2, -3, 7.1%)
4. Webb Simpson (T4, -2, 6.0%)
5. Patrick Reed (T4, -2, 5.4%)
6. Jordan Spieth (T8, -1, 4.2%)
7. Justin Thomas (T20, +1, 3.9%)
8. Will Zalatoris (T4, -2, 3.8%)
9. Brian Harman (T2, -3, 3.8%)
10. Tyrrell Hatton (T8, -1, 3.7%)

NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Masters Tournament, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.