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Stats Report
  • The Takeaway

    Cut prediction: Charles Schwab Challenge

  • The Takeaway

    Spieth is back, Finau leads & the Texas winds

2019 Charles Schwab Challenge, End of Round 1.

Course scoring averages:

Overall: +1.18 strokes per round
Morning wave: +0.47
Afternoon wave: +1.90

Current cutline:

82 players at +2 or better (T66th position)

Top 3 most likely projected cutlines:

  1. 3 over par: 27.3%
  2. 4 over par: 22.6%
  3. 2 over par: 20.8%

Top 10 win probabilities:

  1. Tony Finau (1, -6, 25.8%)
  2. Jordan Spieth (T2, -5, 10.1%)
  3. Paul Casey (T21, -1, 4%)
  4. Abraham Ancer (T13, -2, 2.6%)
  5. Rory Sabbatini (T13, -2, 2.6%)
  6. Roger Sloan (T2, -5, 2.5%)
  7. Matthew Fitzpatrick (T21, -1, 2.3%)
  8. Jimmy Walker (T4, -3, 2.3%)
  9. Byeong Hun An (T21, -1, 2.1%)
  10. Trey Mullinax (T4, -3, 2%)

NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Charles Schwab Challenge, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.