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Stats Report
  • The Takeaway

    Cut prediction: Waste Management Phoenix Open

  • The Takeaway

    JT & Rickie share lead and house, HVIII's exciting lead-tying 16th

2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open, End of Round 1:

Overall scoring average: -0.61 strokes per round

Morning wave: -0.67

Afternoon wave: -0.56

Current cutline: 70 players at -1 or better (T56th position)

Top 3 most likely projected cutlines:

1 under par: 28.8%

2 under par: 22.8%

Even par: 22.1%

Notable players below the cutline:

  1. Tony Finau (+1, 63.3% Made Cut probability)

  2. Billy Horschel (E, 64.8%)

  3. Zach Johnson (E, 61.6%)

Top 5 win probabilities:

  1. Justin Thomas (T1, -7, 20.6%)

  2. Rickie Fowler (T1, -7, 15.5%)

  3. Jon Rahm (T11, -4, 7.3%)

  4. Xander Schauffele (T11, -4, 4.9%)

  5. Harold Varner III (T1, -7, 4.7%)

NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Waste Management Phoenix Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.