August 24, 2018
By Matthew & Will Courchene, PGATOUR.COM
Brooks Koepka’s 23-foot eagle putt at THE NORTHERN TRUST
After two rounds of play at THE NORTHERN TRUST, Brooks Koepka and Jamie Lovemark are tied for the lead at 10 under par. Here are the top-10 win probabilities according to our predictive model:
Koepka is the favourite with a 22 percent chance to win. He is closely followed by world number one Dustin Johnson, who the model estimates has a 19 percent win probability. Given Koepka’s recent dominance, it may come as somewhat of a surprise he is only given a 3 percentage point edge over Johnson. The reason for this is that while Koepka has had several outstanding performances this season, he has also been relatively inconsistent compared to Johnson. As a result, our model currently estimates Johnson to be 0.8 strokes per round better than Koepka.
Only the top 100 players in the FedExCup standings will advance to the next round of the Playoffs. As it stands, there are 24 players whose fate have yet to be decided; here are each of their probabilities of advancing to next week’s Dell Technologies Championship:
Sean O’Hair began the week ranked 121st on the FedExCup points list, but after two solid rounds he sits at 7 under par and is projected to move up 53 spots and inside the top 100 cutoff. O’Hair will need to maintain his form over the weekend, as we are still only giving him about a 50 percent chance of advancing.
NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of THE NORTHERN TRUST, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.