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Power Rankings: AT&T Byron Nelson
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May 10, 2021
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM
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Jon Rahm is one to watch at the AT&T Byron Nelson. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
TPC Craig Ranch makes its debut in the big leagues this week.
The newest host of the AT&T Byron Nelson located 25 miles due north of downtown Dallas is in it first of a five-year agreement with the PGA TOUR, but it’s not new to TOUR-sanctioned competition. It was the site of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in 2008 and 2012.
A field of 156 is assembled this week. For a breakdown of what it will attempt to tackle, how the course comps to familiar nearby tracks and more, scroll past the ranking of projected contenders.
RELATED: The First Look | How the field qualified
POWER RANKINGS: AT&T BYRON NELSON
RANK PLAYER COMMENT 15 
Hideki Matsuyama Took the last month to celebrate his Masters breakthrough. As Japan’s first male to win a major, he received the Prime Minister’s Award. He could be rusty as his feet return to earth.Took the last month to celebrate his Masters breakthrough. As Japan’s first male to win a major, he received the Prime Minister’s Award. He could be rusty as his feet return to earth.14 
Matt Kuchar Back in action following a three-week respite. Prior to it, sparked four straight starts with a third-place showing at the Match Play. Added a T12 at TPC San Antonio and a T18 at Harbour Town.Back in action following a three-week respite. Prior to it, sparked four straight starts with a third-place showing at the Match Play. Added a T12 at TPC San Antonio and a T18 at Harbour Town.13 
Charl Schwartzel Playoff loss (with Louis Oosthuizen) at TPC Louisiana ignited a surge. Schwartzel has added a T21 at Copperhead and a T14 at Quail Hollow while ranking a respective T12 and T7 in GIR.Playoff loss (with Louis Oosthuizen) at TPC Louisiana ignited a surge. Schwartzel has added a T21 at Copperhead and a T14 at Quail Hollow while ranking a respective T12 and T7 in GIR.12 
Aaron Wise He loves himself the zoysia fairways and proved it with victory at Trinity Forest in 2018. Also cemented his spot in the PGA Championship with a T9 at Quail Hollow. Ranks seventh in greens hit.He loves himself the zoysia fairways and proved it with victory at Trinity Forest in 2018. Also cemented his spot in the PGA Championship with a T9 at Quail Hollow. Ranks seventh in greens hit.11 
Sergio Garcia He’s 0-for-2 since the Masters. The last time he connected missed cuts, he won the Sanderson Farms Championship in October. Remains among the elite tee to green. Also third in par-5 scoring.He’s 0-for-2 since the Masters. The last time he connected missed cuts, he won the Sanderson Farms Championship in October. Remains among the elite tee to green. Also third in par-5 scoring.10 
Will Zalatoris The Plano, Texas, resident has among the shortest commutes of the locals, and the timing to be home couldn’t be better after the uncharacteristic performance at Quail Hollow.The Plano, Texas, resident has among the shortest commutes of the locals, and the timing to be home couldn’t be better after the uncharacteristic performance at Quail Hollow.9 
Sam Burns Showcased all of his skills en route to his breakthrough victory at Copperhead two weeks ago. It included a comfort level as a front-runner. Profiles for a continuation of form instead of a letdown.Showcased all of his skills en route to his breakthrough victory at Copperhead two weeks ago. It included a comfort level as a front-runner. Profiles for a continuation of form instead of a letdown.8 
Matt Fitzpatrick Despite its vulnerability, TPC Craig Ranch is unfamiliar and we’re exposed to his best in direct correlation to the challenge. Off since a T4 at Harbour Town where he was T3 in the all-around.Despite its vulnerability, TPC Craig Ranch is unfamiliar and we’re exposed to his best in direct correlation to the challenge. Off since a T4 at Harbour Town where he was T3 in the all-around.7 
Ryan Palmer During his current streak of 14 consecutive cuts made, which is tied for second-longest on TOUR, the Texan has recorded a T2, a solo fourth, a T4 and a solo seventh among eight top 20s.During his current streak of 14 consecutive cuts made, which is tied for second-longest on TOUR, the Texan has recorded a T2, a solo fourth, a T4 and a solo seventh among eight top 20s.6 
Scottie Scheffler The average putter has been teasing and this is a golden opportunity to break into the winner’s column. Leads TOUR in total driving and ranks 33rd in GIR and 21st in putting: birdies-or-better.The average putter has been teasing and this is a golden opportunity to break into the winner’s column. Leads TOUR in total driving and ranks 33rd in GIR and 21st in putting: birdies-or-better.5 
Daniel Berger Rested since a T13 at the RBC Heritage, his sixth top 20 of 2021. Inside the top 20 on TOUR in total driving, GIR, Strokes Gained: Putting, adjusted scoring, par-3 scoring and par-4 scoring.Rested since a T13 at the RBC Heritage, his sixth top 20 of 2021. Inside the top 20 on TOUR in total driving, GIR, Strokes Gained: Putting, adjusted scoring, par-3 scoring and par-4 scoring.4 
Bryson DeChambeau Tops on TOUR in numerous categories and he led the field at Quail Hollow in Strokes Gained: Lesson Learned (unofficially). After an unnecessary trip home, scored 68-68 to finish T9.Tops on TOUR in numerous categories and he led the field at Quail Hollow in Strokes Gained: Lesson Learned (unofficially). After an unnecessary trip home, scored 68-68 to finish T9.3 
Marc Leishman The Aussie has a terrific history in Texas in part because of the wind, and he arrives with comparable form. Followed a T5 at the Masters with a victory (with Cameron Smith) in New Orleans.The Aussie has a terrific history in Texas in part because of the wind, and he arrives with comparable form. Followed a T5 at the Masters with a victory (with Cameron Smith) in New Orleans.2 
Jordan Spieth The Dallas native has been among the hottest anywhere in the last three months. A long-awaited win at TPC San Antonio headlines five top-four finishes. Off since a T3 at the Masters.The Dallas native has been among the hottest anywhere in the last three months. A long-awaited win at TPC San Antonio headlines five top-four finishes. Off since a T3 at the Masters.1 
Jon Rahm Upended at Quail Hollow where his consecutive cuts-made streak (with ridiculous form) ended at 22. Inside top 10 on TOUR in total driving, GIR, adjusted scoring, par-3 scoring and par-5 scoring.Upended at Quail Hollow where his consecutive cuts-made streak (with ridiculous form) ended at 22. Inside top 10 on TOUR in total driving, GIR, adjusted scoring, par-3 scoring and par-5 scoring.
Brooks Koepka, Lee Westwood, Rickie Fowler, Thomas Pieters and defending champion Sung Kang will be among the notables reviewed in Tuesday’s Fantasy Insider.
For both editions of the KFT Championship, TPC Craig Ranch played to a par of 71 with three par 5s. For the AT&T Byron Nelson, it’s been stretched by 30 yards and will play as a stock par 72.
The par-5 12th tips at 547 yards. Previously, it was a 493-yard par 4 and played as the toughest hole on the course in both KFT Championships. The only other change in length occurred at the par-3 17th. Now 147 yards, it’s down 24 yards.
TPC Craig Ranch features bermudagrass rough and bentgrass greens. That matches the combination of grasses at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, site of the Charles Schwab Challenge in two weeks. However, while the fairways at Colonial also are bermuda, the target off the tee at TPC Craig Ranch are zoysiagrass. That matches the same at Trinity Forest (which has bermuda greens), host of the last two editions of the AT&T Byron Nelson.
While it’s making its PGA TOUR debut, TPC Craig Ranch isn’t new to PGA TOUR membership. For one, AT&T Byron Nelson defending champion Sung Kang practices here. For another, 12 of the participants of the more recent KFT Championship are in this week’s field (as of Monday). They are led by James Hahn, who was the runner-up in 2012.
Typically, because of the learning curve required for the putting surfaces, largely unfamiliar tracks reward ball-strikers. The primary rough will be allowed to grow north of two inches, but because scoring should be low, the combination of greens in regulation and converting those chances into par breakers likely will define the majority of the final leaderboard. Consider that Justin Bolli posted 16-under 268 en route to victory at the 2012 KFT Championship and Matt Bettencourt hung up 17-under 267 in 2008. Now that the 72-hole par is 288, 20-under very much is in play this week.
Greens average almost 6,800 square feet and they are prepped to run upwards of only 11-and-a-half feet on the Stimpmeter. They’re governed in part so that Texas winds don’t take control of the wheel.
It’ll be relatively calm early in the tournament before breezes will intensify with encroaching inclement weather on Sunday. Otherwise, comfortable springtime conditions are forecast with daytime highs in the 70s and an 80 or two on the weekend.
ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE
PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled.
MONDAY: Power Rankings
TUESDAY*: Sleepers; Fantasy Insider
SUNDAY: Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Rookie Watch
* - Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.
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