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Power Rankings: Sony Open in Hawaii
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January 11, 2021
By Rob Bolton , PGATOUR.COM
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On the Range
Sungjae Im's pre-round warm-up routine
You couldn’t envision the first full-field PGA TOUR event of a calendar year to be contested anywhere but Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. Why would you? From the sun to the sand to the surf to the swaying palms, watching the action on a high-definition screen is a kind of therapy for those in the northern climes on the mainland in mid-January.
No doubt all of the 144 who commit to the Sony Open in Hawaii would agree. Waialae presents the kind of welcome back preferred after an extended break from action. It’s a fair and consistent test on which a golfer can find his game.
So, settle in for the nightcap of the Aloha Swing. If you close your eyes and take a deep breath, you just might convince yourself that you’re smelling the sea breeze as you hear the waves crash. More on the course and historical trends beneath the ranking of projected contenders.
RELATED: The First Look | Inside the Field
POWER RANKINGS: SONY OPEN IN HAWAII
RANK PLAYER COMMENT 15 
Takumi Kanaya Since turning pro in October, the 22-year-old won the Dunlop Phoenix in his native Japan and finished fifth thrice to place third in earnings. Also led the JGTO in putting. Second Sony start.Since turning pro in October, the 22-year-old won the Dunlop Phoenix in his native Japan and finished fifth thrice to place third in earnings. Also led the JGTO in putting. Second Sony start.
14 
Abraham Ancer Chasing first top 25 in his fourth appearance. It’s not indicative of his evolution into a top-20 machine, but now he arrives warm. Third in Strokes Gained: Putting in his debut at Kapalua (T17).
Chasing first top 25 in his fourth appearance. It’s not indicative of his evolution into a top-20 machine, but now he arrives warm. Third in Strokes Gained: Putting in his debut at Kapalua (T17).
13 
Lanto Griffin After a solo 13th in his Kapalua debut a year ago, he placed T7 in his second start at Waialae with a field-low-tying 64 in the finale. Now he’s fresh off a T13 in his second trip to Kapalua. Trendy.
After a solo 13th in his Kapalua debut a year ago, he placed T7 in his second start at Waialae with a field-low-tying 64 in the finale. Now he’s fresh off a T13 in his second trip to Kapalua. Trendy.
12 
Russell Henley He was in the zone when he broke through as a debutant here in 2013. He’s added a pair of top 20s since, but he’s been more impressive in the last 11 months with six top 10s.
He was in the zone when he broke through as a debutant here in 2013. He’s added a pair of top 20s since, but he’s been more impressive in the last 11 months with six top 10s.
11 
Matt Kuchar Using his win at the QBE Shootout as the angle, he’ll win the Sony because partner, Harris English, took the Aloha Swing opener. Kuchar already has won here (2019). It’s one of six top 15s since 2011.
Using his win at the QBE Shootout as the angle, he’ll win the Sony because partner, Harris English, took the Aloha Swing opener. Kuchar already has won here (2019). It’s one of six top 15s since 2011.
10 
Charles Howell III Twice a groomsman but never the groom. Since debuting at Waialae with a T4 in 2002, he’s gone 19-for-19 with two T2s, two T3s and a pair of fourths among 13 top 15s. T12 last year.
Twice a groomsman but never the groom. Since debuting at Waialae with a T4 in 2002, he’s gone 19-for-19 with two T2s, two T3s and a pair of fourths among 13 top 15s. T12 last year.
9 
Cameron Smith Defending first individual title. Overall, he’s 5-for-5 at Waialae with another two top 25s. Settled for a T24 at Kapalua but ended the fall with an upward trend peaking with a T2 at the Masters.
Defending first individual title. Overall, he’s 5-for-5 at Waialae with another two top 25s. Settled for a T24 at Kapalua but ended the fall with an upward trend peaking with a T2 at the Masters.
8 
Kevin Kisner Finally got over the hump in his fifth trip in 2016 to finish T5. He’s tossed on a pair of T4s since, including in last year’s challenging wind in which he led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Finally got over the hump in his fifth trip in 2016 to finish T5. He’s tossed on a pair of T4s since, including in last year’s challenging wind in which he led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
7 
Daniel Berger Terrific ball-striking at Kapalua, but he didn’t get hot with the putter (as the course demands to make noise) and still finished 10th (of 42). Perfect in five trips to Waialae with a pair of top 15s.
Terrific ball-striking at Kapalua, but he didn’t get hot with the putter (as the course demands to make noise) and still finished 10th (of 42). Perfect in five trips to Waialae with a pair of top 15s.
6 
Ryan Palmer Second in the all-around at Kapalua and delivered a solo fourth to follow a T4 at Sherwood in his last official start. Since winning at Waialae in 2010, he’s added four top 20s here; T4 last year.
Second in the all-around at Kapalua and delivered a solo fourth to follow a T4 at Sherwood in his last official start. Since winning at Waialae in 2010, he’s added four top 20s here; T4 last year.
5 
Harris English Now that he’s scaled to the summit, he might as well stay there and join Ernie Els (2003) and Justin Thomas (2017) to sweep the Aloha Swing. English is 7-for-8 at Waialae with three top 10s.
Now that he’s scaled to the summit, he might as well stay there and join Ernie Els (2003) and Justin Thomas (2017) to sweep the Aloha Swing. English is 7-for-8 at Waialae with three top 10s.
4 
Joaquin Niemann Defeated in a playoff at Kapalua but he got there with a field-low 64 and led the event in par breakers (31 birdies). Dialed in everywhere dating back to a T3 at Olympia Fields in August.
Defeated in a playoff at Kapalua but he got there with a field-low 64 and led the event in par breakers (31 birdies). Dialed in everywhere dating back to a T3 at Olympia Fields in August.
3 
Webb Simpson On a similar trajectory as Charles Howell III at Waialae with a 10-for-10 record that includes a third (2020) and a T4 (2019) among seven top 20s. Tuned up with a T17 at Kapalua last week.
On a similar trajectory as Charles Howell III at Waialae with a 10-for-10 record that includes a third (2020) and a T4 (2019) among seven top 20s. Tuned up with a T17 at Kapalua last week.
2 
Collin Morikawa After a wild year during which he won twice, including his first major, he opened 2021 with a T7 at Kapalua despite a closing 73. T21 in debut here last year after leading with a first-round 65.
After a wild year during which he won twice, including his first major, he opened 2021 with a T7 at Kapalua despite a closing 73. T21 in debut here last year after leading with a first-round 65.
1 
Sungjae Im Paced seven first-timers at Kapalua with a T5. Led field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and ranked T3 in proximity. Top 25s in first two trips at Waialae, but hasn’t put four rounds together. Yet.
Paced seven first-timers at Kapalua with a T5. Led field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and ranked T3 in proximity. Top 25s in first two trips at Waialae, but hasn’t put four rounds together. Yet.
Sergio Garcia, Marc Leishman, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott and 2020 playoff victim Brendan Steele will be among the notables reviewed in Tuesday’s Fantasy Insider.
Sooner or later – usually later – the trade winds win. This was the case at Waialae last year. With a field scoring 70.513 on it in 2020, the stock par 70 averaged over par for the first time since a six-year run north of 70 ended in 2010. Gusts touched 40 mph during the first two rounds last year before abating a bit on the weekend. The scoring in the third and fourth rounds beat par. The finale checked in lower at 68.77.
This week’s weather forecast is more favorable, so the field scoring average will dip below par again. A slight chance of a passing shower or two can’t be ruled out during the first three rounds, but the only day wind is expected to flap the trousers is on Thursday, and it is not expected to be gusty. Low scores will be posted especially in the last three rounds. The greatest threat for rain enters the picture on Sunday.
Kapalua’s Plantation Course, the host of last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions, has been stingy in playing the role of icebreaker. After its inaugural edition in 1999, only two winners were tournament debutants. Unimpressed, and in response to that, the host of the Sony Open in Hawaii says, “Hold my Mai Tai.”
Since Bob Goalby prevailed in Waialae’s debut in 1965, Russell Henley (in 2013) is the only other first-time participant to win on the course.
This year’s defending champion, Cameron Smith, captured victory in his fifth appearance, but he ended a modest streak of six consecutive winners who competed the previous week on Maui. However, it would take some time to neutralize the impact of launching into a year at Kapalua because 15 of the 22 champions of the Sony had pegged it at Kapalua the previous week. Of last week’s 42-man field and as of midday Monday, 30 have made the short trip west to Waialae.
Waialae’s TifDwarf bermuda greens are governed to run 11 feet on the Stimpmeter. The primary rough is allowed to reach to two-and-a-quarter inches, but while accuracy off the tee has defined winners over time, it’s not a prerequisite for success. And at just 7,044 yards, neither is distance. Waialae favors course management. It’s why an understanding of the walk has mattered.
Averaging 12.75 greens in regulation per round (to rank T20), which was 1.14 more than the field average, Smith capitalized by co-leading the field in converting those chances into par breakers on the average of five (per 12.75) per round. He also finished T13 in par-5 scoring on holes 9 and 18. Both of which are the most scorable holes on the course no matter the conditions, so they must be exploited.
ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE
PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled.
MONDAY: Power Rankings
TUESDAY*: Sleepers, Fantasy Insider
SUNDAY: Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Medical Extensions, Rookie Watch
* - Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.
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