Why Paul Casey is a perfect fit at the Valspar Championship

Winning once on the PGA TOUR? That’s hard enough.

Winning three times is even more difficult, let alone three in a row at the same event.

That’s why the ‘three-peat’ is an exceedingly rare occurrence on the PGA TOUR. Yet Paul Casey has the potential to win his third consecutive Valspar Championship this week, having taken home the title in both 2018 and 2019 (the tournament was canceled last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic).

Over the last 40 years, there have only been eight instances of a player winning a tournament three or more times in a row. Tiger Woods did it six times. The other two occurrences in the last four decades were Stuart Appleby at the Sentry Tournament of Champions (2004-06) and Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic (2009-11). Not only would Casey be the first player since Stricker a decade ago to ‘three-peat’ in any single event, but he would also be the first European player to do it in the PGA TOUR’s modern era.

So what makes Casey a perfect fit for Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course? 15th Club examined a thorough combination of course traits and player strengths that help make this the quintessential layout for the affable Englishman.

Copperhead Characteristics

The Copperhead annually provides one of the more difficult approach-play tests on the PGA TOUR. In 2019, the field hit the green in regulation just 54.1% of the time – the lowest percentage of any course on TOUR all season. For context, the PGA TOUR average across all courses that season was 66.0%.

Not only does this lead to more inherent value in precision approach play, it all but assures that players will face more scrambling opportunities than normal during the Valspar Championship. Since 2010, winners at this event have had an average of 23.4 scrambling attempts for the week – a significant uptick from the PGA TOUR average during that same span, of 18.8. The average ranking in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green for Valspar Championship winners since 2010 is 15.5. Compare that to the PGA TOUR average for winners since 2010: nearly 10 spots lower, at 24.2.

Meanwhile, performance off the tee is far less significant at the Copperhead Course than most weeks. Since 2010, the average field rank in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee at the Valspar Championship is a rather pedestrian 31.1. The TOUR average for winners the last decade-plus is 18.7. While Casey is anything but short, this does lessen the advantage that the big hitters have. Longer players are far less likely to be able to take advantage of driving distance at this layout.

Precision Approach

Casey has ranked inside the top 15 of Strokes Gained: Approach for seven consecutive seasons, tied with Hideki Matsuyama for the longest active run on TOUR. Casey is in good position to extend his streak, as well, ranking 14th in that stat this year. His approach play is easily the strongest facet of his world-class skillset: in every season since 2014, he has gained the highest percentage of his strokes against the field with his approaches.

The range from which players face approach shots at Copperhead is particularly telling, too. At the 2019 Valspar Championship, players faced more approach shots from 200-225 yards away (872 of them for the week) than approach shots from 125-150 yards out (755). The field routinely faces an inordinate number of approach shots from more than 200 yards away – the Copperhead Course has had an average ranking, by season, of 6.0 in number of approaches from that distance among PGA TOUR venues since 2010.

This plays directly into Casey’s strengths. This season, he’s the PGA TOUR leader in average proximity to the hole on approach shots outside 200 yards (41’10”, more than 12’ better than the TOUR average). He also led the TOUR in that statistic in the 2018 season, when he won his first Valspar title. In 2017, when Casey took home the Strokes Gained: Approach title for the season, he ranked third on TOUR in average proximity from 175-200 yards away.

Touch Around the Green

While Casey does not necessarily have an elite short game, his play around the greens has improved significantly in recent seasons. In 2014 and 2015, Casey ranked outside the top-100 on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. In the ’14-15 season, Casey bottomed out at 150th on TOUR in scrambling percentage.

Since then, his numbers around the greens have improved significantly. In 2017, 2018 and 2019, Casey gained strokes around the greens each season. He climbed into the top-10 in scrambling percentage in 2017, and currently ranks third on TOUR this season in scrambling from the rough.

He shined particularly brightly in his back-to-back Valspar wins with his short game, ranking in the top-10 both years in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. In his 2018 victory, he got up-and-down 23 of 28 times, the third-best percentage in the field for the week.

Casey’s combination of approach proficiency and improved touch make him a perfect match for this week.