Pool party: Numbers you need to know about WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

When the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play announced a format change for the 2015 edition at TPC Harding Park, some golf fans were skeptical of the impact it would have on the excitement of the competition.

For years, the single-elimination, 64-player format provided a thrilling prospect on the opening Wednesday: top players in the world could find themselves on a flight back home that evening. Just ask Tiger Woods, who in 2002 dropped his opening match to unheralded Aussie Peter O’Malley, 2&1.

The pool play format guaranteed everyone in the field would play for at least three days, with the top performers from each group advancing to the Round of 16. While every match still has value, a pool play loss wasn’t a week-ender: 27.5% of players to advance out of pool play since 2015 have lost one match. While some long-time fans of the event may still long for the madness of that win-or-go-home Wednesday, the early returns on pool play actually say the new format have made the results more democratic, seed-wise.

The average seed of a player to advance to the Round of 16 is almost identical under the new format. From 2010-2014, that number was 28.6. Since the beginning of pool play, that number is 28.9.

L

OW SEEDS ADVANCING

In each of the four years this tournament has been held at Austin Country Club, at least one player seeded 50th or lower has made it to the quarterfinals. In 2019, two players did it – Lucas Bjerregaard (50th) and Kevin Na (57th).

Four players in the pool play era (since 2015) have been seeded 60th or lower and made the Round of 16. Charles Howell III has made the Round of 16 twice since 2017 when seeded 59th or worse entering the week.

When filling out your bracket, consider this: 17% of the players to move on from pool play at Austin Country Club have come from the “D” group – or the players seeded 49 through 64. In 2019, three players seeded outside the top-40 made it to the quarterfinals, while just one of the top-10 seeds – Tiger Woods – joined them there.

Each of the last two winners here – Bubba Watson in 2018 and Kevin Kisner in 2019 – beat at least 5 players seeded higher than they were on their way to victory.

SITUATIONAL STATS

A hot start is paramount in match play. And while colloquially, ‘momentum’ is a word fans will frequently hear this week, the numbers bear out that getting a lead is a big advantage at Austin Country Club.

Over the last two years, more than 73% of players who held the lead at the turn went on to win their match. More than 80% of those players would either win or earn a halve.

In that span, there have been 52 instances where a player was 3-down or more through 9 holes. Not a single player came back to win in those situations.

Trailing 1- or 2-down is a bit less dire, but still not a place to be: players 1-down at the turn went on to win 22.4% of the time in 2018 and 2019 at this event. Players 2-down went on to win 19.1% of the time.

A lead after 13 holes is even more significant. Over the last 2 years, only 7.5% of players who trailed after 13 have come back to win their match. In 2019, no player came back from more than 1 down through 13 holes to win the entire week.

ONE AND NOT DONE

Since pool play began in 2015, more than one-quarter of players to move on out of pool play dropped a match (27.5%). Seven times since 2016, a player has lost his opening match of the week and still moved on to the Round of 16 – including Kevin Kisner, the tournament winner two years ago.

So while it’s possible to move on with a dropped match, the price is still enormous. Of the 80 players to advance beyond pool play since 2015, 63 won their first match of the week (78.8%). 70 of those 80 players either won or halved their opening match.

While Fridays under the new format have received a bit of a bad reputation because several players are already mathematically eliminated by that point, consider this: only five players have lost their third match of the week and moved on to the Round of 16 – or less than 7%. In 2019, 44 of the 64 players in the field still mathematically had a chance to move on entering the final day of pool play.