DraftKings preview: TOUR Championship

This week’s TOUR Championship will be its first under the new Starting Strokes format. Each of the 30 players in the field at East Lake have been assigned a score based on their position in the FedExCup standings after last week’s BMW Championship. Justin Thomas, No. 1 in points, starts at 10 under, No. 2 Brooks Koepka starts at 8 under, and so on through the last five players in the field, who start Thursday’s first round at even par.

Since the field is starting at different strokes to begin the week, the DraftKings pricing and scoring has been tweaked for this event. As it pertains to scoring, players will be given finishing points immediately to start the tournament. So, Thomas will start the week with 30 fantasy points before he even hits a shot. He does NOT get credit for 10 birdies, however, just the finishing points, which has been baked into his price. Thomas is the most expensive player in the DraftKings pricing at an inflated $15,500. Now, he will start the TOUR Championship with the 30 DK points, but he still would need to win in order to maintain those points.

Since the top four players have more than 75% of the total win equity for the event, feel free to experiment with different lineup strategies this week. This is the first time a DraftKings contest has been structured in this way, so everyone is at an even playing field as it pertains to game theory.

East Lake is a Donald Ross design, like Detroit Golf Club and Sedgefield from earlier this year. The players will encounter 74 bunkers and six water hazards in Atlanta, with the most difficult holes being the lengthy par 4s measuring more than 450 yards. The four most difficult from a year ago all fell in that range. Over the past 36 rounds, per www.fantasynational.com, Dustin Johnson and Adam Scott have been the best players on holes of that length.

Players hit the fairway on approximately 61% of their drives on the average TOUR course; that number is only 54% at East Lake. GIR Rate and Scrambling percentages are almost exactly TOUR average. With the most influential stats in comparison to the top-five finishers over the past six years being Strokes Gained: Approach and Par 5s Gained.

Best values at TOUR Championship

Justin Thomas, $15,500

There’s a critical decision all DraftKings players must make this week: All-in or full-out fade on Justin Thomas. His $15,500 DraftKings price accounts for 31% of your overall salary cap, leaving you few options to construct your teams in a unique fashion. However, it’s likely (not a lock) you’re going to need the winner on your roster to compete for the top prizes this week, and spotting the hottest ball-striker on the planet a two-stroke advantage over the next closest competitor might be too much to overcome -- especially considering JT has never finished worse than T7 at this event in three starts at East Lake.

Rory McIlroy, $10,600

The 2016 winner at East Lake, Rory might be best suited to track down JT. Yes, he’ll begin the week five strokes behind, but it will take only one of those patterned nuclear rounds to close that gap. With two top-two finishes in his past four starts at East Lake, it’s clear Rory’s a fan of the layout, and the switch back to Bermuda greens might be an equalizer. Over the past two years, McIlroy is gaining just under a stroke per event on Bermuda, while losing on all other surfaces. If he can stabilize his irons, continue mashing it off the tee and get some putting luck, he’s the best equipped to make a run at the giant payday.

Sungjae Im, $5,900

The only rookie to make it all the way to the final leg of the playoffs, the Korean enters with quality form after a solid weekend at the BMW Championship. Im has gained on approaches in nine of his past 11 rounds, and from the key approach range of 175-200 yards, he’s been in the positives in proximity gained in 10 of his past 12 rounds. Plus, he consistently scores well against the field on par 5s despite a hindrance due to lack of distance, and he plays long par 3s better than the field average.

Read more daily fantasy analysis from Pat Mayo and others on the DraftKings Playbook.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ThePME) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.