Hot start bodes well for Charles Howell III in FedExCup

Charles Howell III is headed to the TOUR Championship … provided that the historical trend of recent FedExCup Playoffs holds in the revamped schedule for the 2018-19 PGA TOUR season.

Thanks to his win Sunday at The RSM Classic, Howell moved to the top of the FedExCup standings after the completion of the fall portion of the wraparound schedule. The previous five players who have finished the fall atop the standings each eventually advanced to the 30-man Playoffs finale at East Lake in their given season.

That’s the good news for Howell. The bad news is that none of those five won the FedExCup. Jimmy Walker, the fall points leader in the 2013-14 season, had the best overall finish at seventh in points. Last year’s fall leader, Patton Kizzire, just squeezed into East Lake and finished 30th.

This season’s FedExCup Playoffs offers an unknown factor than previous seasons, since the Playoffs have been reduced from four to three tournaments. But if Howell can maintain his position inside the top 30 after the second event, the BMW Championship, he will advance to the TOUR Championship for the first time since 2011.

PREVIOUS FALL POINTS LEADERS

ON THE FLIP SIDE

None of the last five FedExCup champions earned less than 34 points in the fall events (Jordan Spieth in 2015). In fact, the other four champions earned at least 100 points in the fall; last season’s champ, Justin Rose, finished the fall a year ago with 550 points.

That historical trend is bad news for notables such as Dustin Johnson (who currently has 28 points), Rory McIlroy (six points) and Jordan Spieth (six points).

PLENTY OF POINT-GATHERERS

A total of 215 players earned at least one point this fall – that’s the most in the six seasons of the wraparound schedule. Getting at least one point in the fall gives a player better than a 50-50 chance of making the Playoffs. In the previous five seasons, a total of 1,023 players earned points in the fall – and nearly 57 percent of those players went on to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs

Taking it one more step, more than 12 percent of those players made it to the TOUR Championship.

But here’s the most telling statistic that emphasizes the importance of the fall – just 21 of a possible 150 players earned a spot in the TOUR Championship after failing to play or earn at least a single point in the fall. Tiger Woods did that last season … and he’ll hope to do it again this season.

WHO IS THE FALL KING?

In the five years of the wraparound schedule, no player has earned more FedExCup points than Justin Thomas – not surprising since three of his nine career wins have come in the fall (CIMB Classic in 2015 and 2016; CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES in 2017).

Ryan Moore, Russell Knox and Charles Howell III are the next three players on that list.

Thomas has made 18 fall starts in the history of the wraparound schedule to accumulate his 2,087 points. That’s an average of 115.9 points per start – good, but not the best.

No player has been more efficient in the fall than current FedExCup champ Justin Rose. He has made five starts in the wraparound schedule since the 2013-14 season and has averaged 195 points per start. Dustin Johnson (five starts) is next at 185.6, followed by Patrick Cantlay (six starts, 164.3 average), then Thomas. Reigning PGA TOUR Player of the Year Brooks Koepka is fifth on the list (12 starts, 109.2 average).