Draws and Fades: 3M Open

We have arrived at the midpoint of Segment 4 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. In a sense, and at least if you’ve played your cards right, the heavy lifting is over. You’ve positioned your charges for the FedExCup Playoffs for which bonus points are quadrupled.

RELATED: Horses for Courses, Sleeper picks

This week’s 3M Open, next week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic and the Wyndham Championship that follows will yield low scores, which, of course, translate into beefier fantasy scoring. As a result, missing cuts in any of these three could sting more than most. However, you’re unlikely to be cornered into trading a zero for a valuable start in the Playoffs. The constructs of the fields should benefit us. (This phenomenon also reinforces why playing fantasy golf is the best experience to remain engaged no matter the week, but you can stop me when you get tired of that old chestnut.)

So, remove the shackles of usual restraint from your concerns over starts. At the same time, just like the golfers themselves targeting opening position in the Playoffs, remain fluid on the weekly when building lineups.

The halfway house of Segment 4 also presents as the perfect time to take stock of how you’re going to set up for the TOUR Championship (which will score like the other two Playoffs events despite the actual staggered scoring; that note can be found in Rules.

Although the game allows you to save future starts, I prefer a more hands-on approach. I make physical notes and sketch out lineups for all three tournaments in the series. Seeing all of it visually in one place simplifies the objective.

No matter your approach, remember to put an emphasis on starts at the finale for which only 30 qualify. Also remember that because fantasy bonus points are determined by tournament finish, they will be influenced by opening position at East Lake via Starting Strokes.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Hideki Matsuyama (-145 for a Top 20) … Of course he’s among the favorites to prevail because the house never loses, but he hasn’t exhibited any consistency to warrant confidence in the Power Rankings, and I’m barely limping into endorsing this finish as it is. The proper play would be to spread the units around to apply new emotional connections to others arriving in better form and with sharper angles.

DRAWS

Nick Hardy (+160 for a Top 20) … Love this prop. Taking the week of the Barbasol Championship off was a head-scratcher, but he hadn’t rested in five weeks. The rookie then delivered a T13 at Old Greenwood and now sits 133rd in the FedExCup.

Martin Laird (+160 for a Top 20) … Whether it’s the scoring system at the Barracuda Championship, the altitude, something else or a combination of any number of factors, that tournament has been an automatic opportunity for the Scot to succeed. Even in his debut at Old Greenwood last week, he placed third. It piggybacks a T13 at the Travelers and a T30 at the Deere, so he’s on a mild heater. It also silences critics who expected him to make the trip to compete in the Genesis Scottish Open. There’s always next year for that.

Wyndham Clark (+225 for a Top 20) … Cruising to his fourth FedExCup Playoffs in as many tries, but he’s still not contending as often as the talent projects. He’s 28 and approaching his prime, so the clock is starting to tick. Yet, he’s still young enough not to elicit genuine feels of plateauing. At the same time, he’s better fit for long-term formats because of the inconsistency. So, although I’ve dropped him in Draws because of the upside in DFS, the conservative in me would abstain. His 1-for-3 slate with a T5 in 2019 is a microcosm of the caution.

Patton Kizzire
Matthew NeSmith
C.T. Pan

Odds sourced on Tuesday, July 19th at 6 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm

FADES

Cameron Champ … This shouldn’t surprise anyone, but it doesn’t mean we have to like it. The defending champ has missed five consecutive cuts and he’s broken par just once in his last 10 rounds. He prevailed here last year not long after nursing a sore left wrist that again thwarted consistently strong play later in the year and early in 2022. He’s way too good to be knocked akilter this often without either ongoing discomfort or what now may the added challenge of undoing bad habits created while playing through pain.

Tom Hoge … This will be an unpopular sentiment, but this virtual home game for the 33-year-old North Dakotan arrives amid an 0-for-6 spell. He’s 2-for-3 with a T23 in 2019 at TPC Twin Cities, and the regional vibe will be uplifting, but it’s asking a lot for him to reverse form overnight. Although many of his recent starts have occurred on tough tracks, the usually reliable scorer has 10 consecutive rounds over par.

Rickie Fowler … The proper place for him in betting circles is a Make/Miss-the-Cut prop. It’s also an opportunity to use your gut. The analytics that project success at TPC Twin Cities favor others, but he’s 5-for-6 with a pair of top 25s since the Wells Fargo Championship. He’s also fully exempt through next season, so the “only” immediate pressure is to qualify for the Playoffs. At 129th in the FedExCup, he’s within striking distance, but his full-season-owners can’t wait to get off and let someone else draft him in 2022-23. Of course, then it just might be a contract season when he’s a bargain.

Lucas Glover
Matt Wallace
Danny Willett

RETURNING TO COMPETITION - THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP

Jason Day … The 34-year-old Aussie has just one top 30 on his own ball in over five months. Like most, he’s struggled in putting four rounds together, but there hasn’t been enough of the firepower for which he was known for years to spark our confidence.

Adam Schenk … He sat out the last two weeks since withdrawing after an opening 77 at the JDC. An explanation wasn’t released. Currently 88th in the FedExCup, his gritty game plays up on harder tracks, so it’s not terribly surprising that he’s still without a top 40 at TPC Twin Cities where he cashed in the last two editions. Presents best for DFSers.

Andrew Landry … Impingements triggering pain in both shoulders sidelined him for three months before he returned with a missed cut at the Travelers. Then, after opening the Deere with 79, he walked off TPC Deere Run, citing the same injury. Unfortunately, until he proves that his shoulders will cooperate, he presents best as the guy against whom to bet in matchups. He’s 162nd in the FedExCup but fully exempt through 2022-23.

Danny Lee … This is his first start since an injured hip knocked him out of his first round at the Travelers. He’s cashed in only five of 17 starts in 2022, but he’s 83rd in the FedExCup thanks to the T2-T7 fortnight in the fall.

Jeff Overton … Boom, baby, he’s back. This is his first sanctioned competition since February of 2017. He then had surgery for a herniated disc, and then a spinal infection set him back for a considerable amount of time. Only recently has he decided to dust off the rust with an attempt at open qualifying (John Deere), but he was given one of the last two sponsor exemptions for the 3M Open. The 39-year-old is 194-for-293 with four runner-up finishes on the PGA TOUR, so he’s eligible for Veteran Membership should he continue to pursue chasing the little white ball. In his heyday, he possessed one of the most balanced skill sets out there. It contributed to his achievement of being a member of the Ryder Cup team in 2010.

NOTABLE WDs

Mark Hubbard … Given that he went T13-3rd-4th in the last three weeks, he may have topped my Power Rankings, but even then, asking for him to sustain that kind of blistering form for yet another week is selfish and unfair. So, a week off is a fair compromise. Next time he appears, we’ll have more confidence for an extension of form with rest contributing.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout … Like many, he’s taking his first week off of the last five, but owners in every format can’t complain. He’s fulfilled even stringent expectations as a first-time PGA TOUR member with worldly success. Currently 54th in the FedExCup with eight top 20s and poised to go two deep into his first Playoffs.

Erik van Rooyen … It’s a bummer that he can’t give it a go in the backyard of his collegiate stomping grounds at the University of Minnesota, but he’s dealing with an injured neck. It’s why he was a late scratch at The Open Championship last week. In fact, he’s withdrawn early from five commitments since the Wells Fargo Championship in early May. He’s traded those weeks off with as many missed cuts and sits 138th in the FedExCup. The good news is that he’s fully exempt through 2022-23, so there’s no pressure or urgency to return sooner than later, at least in the context of his health.

Aaron Rai … The last man in the field at St. Andrews (when EVR withdrew) missed the cut. The Englishman competed in the last three events in the U.K. and hadn’t rested for a month overall. At 84th in the FedExCup, the rookie now can rest and recharge for his Playoffs debut.

Brandon Wu … When he traveled to the Genesis Scottish Open, he wasn’t yet exempt into The Open Championship, but a T6 at The Renaissance Club yielded the appearance in the major. Had it not, the likelihood of him pegging it at TPC Twin Cities was greater, but now he’ll get his first week off in a month. The rookie is 85th in the FedExCup.

Lanto Griffin … Sitting out for a third straight week and after an 0-for-3 skid. Still 64th in the FedExCup and making the most of his opportunities, but the last few months have presented more challenge than charm.

Charles Howell III … He’s withdrawn early from consecutive tournaments but he can afford to. He’s 104th in the FedExCup and headed back to the Playoffs, thus ending his “drought” without qualifying for any at one.

Chad Ramey … Since withdrawing after one round at Memorial in early June due to an injured back, he’s gone 1-for-3 with a T60 at Barracuda. His win at Corales accounts for 52.8 percent of his FedExCup total and he’s 71st in points.

Brandt Snedeker … Third consecutive early withdrawal. He’s also slipped to 176th in the FedExCup. As I’ve noted recently, he’s in position to burn a top-25 career earnings exemption for 2022-23, if necessary.

Michael Kim … Teased us with a solo seventh at the Barbasol Championship, but the Korn Ferry Tour was dark that week. He returned to that circuit and placed third in Illinois on Sunday. Now he’s sticking with the commitment to the Price Cutter Charity Championship presented by Dr. Pepper because he’s 33rd in KFT points and only 82 points (and change) from cracking the top 25.

RECAP – THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Rory McIlroy 3rd
2 Jon Rahm T34
3 Matt Fitzpatrick T21
4 Scottie Scheffler T21
5 Xander Schauffele T15
6 Jordan Spieth T8
7 Tommy Fleetwood T4
8 Collin Morikawa MC
9 Shane Lowry T21
10 Will Zalatoris T28
11 Cameron Smith Win
12 Patrick Cantlay T8
13 Louis Oosthuizen MC
14 Tyrrell Hatton T11
15 Max Homa MC
16 Justin Thomas T53
17 Adam Scott T15
18 Seamus Power MC
19 Joaquin Niemann T53
20 Joohyung Kim T47
Wild Card Viktor Hovland T4

SLEEPERS

Golfer (Bet) Result
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+300 for a Top 20) and (+450 for Top South African) T68 (fifth among South Africans)
Chris Kirk (+550 for a Top 20) T42
Haotong Li (+400 for a Top 20) MC
Sebastián Muñoz (+450 for a Top 20) T62
Keita Nakajima (+1400 for a Top 20) MC

RECAP – BARRACUDA CHAMPIONSHIP

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Maverick McNealy T9
2 Rasmus Højgaard T48
3 Mark Hubbard 4th
4 Cam Davis 6th
5 Alex Noren 2nd
6 Matti Schmid 38th
7 Brandon Hagy MC
8 Martin Laird 3rd
9 Taylor Pendrith T11
10 Andrew Putnam MC

OTHERS TO CONSIDER

Golfer Result
Michael Gligic T31
Joe Highsmith MC
Taylor Moore T65
Chris Naegel MC

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

July 19 … none
July 20 … Dylan Wu (26)
July 21 … Paul Casey (45)
July 22 … Brendon Todd (37); David Lingmerth (35)
July 23 … Boo Weekley (49); Kevin Tway (34); Kiradech Aphibarnrat (33); Harris English (33); Sam Burns (26)
July 24 … Danny Lee (32)
July 25 … Bo Hoag (34)