Draws and Fades: The Open Championship

Just like last week opener in Scotland, the roster deadline for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf will fall in the late-night hours in the United States, so don’t lay your head on the pillow before you lay out your lineup tonight.

RELATED: Horses for Courses, Sleeper picks

The Open Championship is scheduled to begin at 6:35 a.m. local time at St. Andrews. It’s five hours ahead of Eastern Time in the U.S., so that’s a 1:35 a.m. deadline. For those of us on the West Coast, the deadline is 10:35 p.m. PT on Wednesday. Adjust to wherever you are.

Unlike last week opener, all 156 golfers in the field will be going off the first hole. With more than 17 hours of daylight, it’s doable. The last of the 52 threesomes is scheduled to begin at 4:16 p.m. local time.

Because the wind is forecast to be light, relatively speaking, scoring should reflect it. However, all gamers must respect the fact that this is The Open.

In simple terms, links golf tests differently, and not all touring professionals adapt quickly no matter the practice. In broad terms, it’s right up there with THE PLAYERS Championship as a premier stroke-play event for which you should consider holstering the chalk. Of course, with the conclusion of the season on the horizon, your unique situation will dictate your strategy, but household names are upended in this tournament just as often as they are at TPC Sawgrass.

Remember, it’s not about how we think anyone will perform, it’s how we respond to the greater likelihood that they will not.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Viktor Hovland (-125 for a Top 40) … Note that I’ve retreated from a Top 20 to a Top 40 here. I’m willing to let last week slide given that he opened without his gamers, but he hasn’t finished inside a top 20 since a T9 at THE PLAYERS Championship, and that was reflective of months of phenomenal form. To reiterate the theme in this space, the cadence of the events in the spring has its own learning curve and rhythm, and he hasn’t performed poorly enough to warrant a Fade, AND you’re not going to get any value on the boards because of his appeal, so the sneaky play it to stash him on you Bench in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf and tell your opponents that you told them so on Sunday.

DRAWS

Hideki Matsuyama (+180 for a Top 20) … For all of the reasons why he makes sense on a course on which his tee-to-green game should thrive, he makes just as much sense for almost as many reasons why you can understand why he could struggle. Simply put, his game is accentuated on long, difficult parkland tracks, so it’s been a bonus when he’s connected for three top 20s at The Open, including a T18 at St. Andrews in 2015. He’s played very well of late, so there’s no worries about form (despite the unfair sample size of last week’s MC), but his angle is steeper than others who, literally, have a lower ball flight more conducive for optimizing the ground game that St. Andrews supports.

Dustin Johnson (+130 for a Top 20) … The negative reaction to his omission from my Power Rankings for the U.S. Open was fair – he landed in Fades that week – but he split the difference with a T24. It was a reversal of form going back two months prior at the Masters, so it was equal parts surprising and expected, depending on your perspective. This week, he should have a field day with St. Andrews, so this bet is encouraged even though he wasn’t in the Power Rankings again. He’s always been a threat in the wind and his record in this tournament is strong.

Tiger Woods (+100 for a Top 40) … We all can agree that no one can focus better on any one shot than the three-time Open champion. Given the physical challenge that injuries to his right leg have added, it will require that second-to-none conviction to his process to avoid as many of the 112 bunkers as he can. This isn’t to say that we ever should doubt him, but he’s still on the early mend, and those bunkers do not care how he’s feeling. The walk itself also will present a level of difficulty, but quality ball-striking would mitigate it over the course of four rounds. Getting the equivalent of your investment for this kickback is fair but reaching for a Top 20 at +275 has merit.

Tony Finau
Robert MacIntyre
Thomas Pieters
Justin Rose
Webb Simpson

Odds sourced on Tuesday, July 13th at 5 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm

FADES

Sam Burns … From my consistently conservative investment standpoint, this is relative. He opened strong last week (67) but finished T66. OK, fine. He plays to the extremes, anyway, but that’s also the problem. As I stated at the top, be careful with the chalk, but with him, there’s an additional layer of concern until he generates a positive result on this kind of test. So, in the context of experience, or lack thereof, you don’t need to go this deep.

Marc Leishman … No doubt he wants to avenge losing in a playoff here in 2015, but the 38-year-old Aussie has been slipping. A T14 at the U.S. Open must be respected as an anomaly, he hasn’t been the presence in the wind of late and he missed the cut in the last two Opens.

Brooks Koepka … His last three official starts have occurred in majors, and he went MC-T55-55th. That’s not what we expect from the recently married 32-year-old on these stages.

Bryson DeChambeau … He’s 2-for-4 and without a top 30 in The Open. It’s a tournament that requires more art than science, so no matter how much I’ve supported that he’s half and half, it hasn’t played out that way on this kind of test. In that context, it’s a lot like the greens at Augusta National. It’s going to take more time. Worse, though, is that he hasn’t recorded a noisy finish anywhere in 10 months due to injury and uncharacteristic inconsistency.

Abraham Ancer
Russell Henley
Billy Horschel
Si Woo Kim
Jason Kokrak
Phil Mickelson
Keith Mitchell
Francesco Molinari

RETURNING TO COMPETITION - THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP

Paul Casey … Since withdrawing during the Match Play in late March, he’s pulled out early of four commitments or tournaments for which he’s automatically qualified due to ongoing discomfort triggered by back spasms. The weather and the walk will cooperate with the Brit, who will turn 45 on July 21, and his record in The Open is splendid – he often was on the short list to burn in this tournament due to his consistency and how the courses wrecked better-laid fantasy planning – but he’s given us no confidence after this extended layoff.

RETURNING TO COMPETITION – BARRACUDA CHAMPIONSHIP

Richy Werenski … The timing of this tournament is exactly what the doctor ordered. He’s failed to cash in eight straight starts, the last of which due to a second-round withdrawal last week at Keene Trace due to an illness. He’s 197th in the FedExCup but fully exempt through next season by virtue of his victory at Old Greenwood in 2020.

Curtis Thompson … The rookie withdrew before his second round of the Barbasol. An explanation wasn’t released, but he has battled a back with enough discomfort to knock him out the Wells Fargo during its first round two months ago. Currently 176th in the FedExCup and with only one payday in his last seven tries.

Grayson Murray … Walked off Keene Trace with a sore lower back in his opening round last week. He’s 206th in the FedExCup with only one top 60 among three paydays in eight starts. So, he’s within striking distance of qualifying for the Korn Ferry Tour Finals as the worst-case scenario to regain his full card on the PGA TOUR. This will be his debut at the Barracuda.

Matt Every … An injured back knocked him out of the second round of the Barbasol. So, he’s now 1-for-6 with a pair of mid-tournament WDs this season. Also 0-for-2 at Old Greenwood.

NOTABLE WDs – THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP

Daniel Berger … This is the fourth planned start from which he’s withdrawn early due to his ailing back. At 69th in the FedExCup, he’s set for the Playoffs, but the week-to-week waiting game hasn’t ceased.

Jimmy Walker … The 150th Open is the last major for which he’s automatically eligible via his victory at the 2016 PGA Championship, but he also sat out the 2022 PGA Championship in May. He hasn’t played since the home game at TPC San Antonio in the first weekend of April, hasn’t made a cut since THE PLAYERS in mid-March, and has just one top-30 finish on the season (T24, Shriners). He’s also deleted his Twitter in favor of other social media. His fully exempt status will expire at the conclusion of next month’s Wyndham Championship unless he climbs into the top 125 of the FedExCup, but of course, he has to return to competition first. Currently 59th on the all-time money list, the 43-year-old would not be eligible for a career earnings exemption next season, if necessary.

NOTABLE WDs – BARRACUDA CHAMPIONSHIP

Matthew NeSmith … Flew to Scotland last week only to miss his first cut in three months. He’s 70th in the FedExCup.

Charles Howell III … With a pair of top 20s sandwiching a T35 at the Travelers in his last three starts, he’s locked up a spot in the Playoffs. Currently 100th in points.

Brandt Snedeker … Second consecutive early WD. At 175th in the FedExCup, he may need a buzzer-beater at Sedgefield to qualify for the Playoffs.

Satoshi Kodaira … Just 7-for-14 on the season with two top 25s. He’s 161st in the FedExCup via conditional status. Harnesses firepower often enough to keep it interesting for the deepest full-season leagues, but he’s relegated to spot-starting as an inexpensive piece in DFS.

RECAP – GENESIS SCOTTISH OPEN

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Jon Rahm T55
2 Justin Thomas MC
3 Scottie Scheffler MC
4 Matt Fitzpatrick T6
5 Xander Schauffele Win
6 Will Zalatoris MC
7 Collin Morikawa MC
8 Tommy Fleetwood T4
9 Sam Burns T66
10 Jordan Spieth T10
11 Patrick Cantlay T4
12 Adrian Meronk MC
13 Cameron Smith T10
14 Ryan Fox T47
15 Victor Perez MC
Wild Card Viktor Hovland MC

SLEEPERS

Golfer (Bet) Result
Alexander Björk (+600 for a Top 20) T42
Mackenzie Hughes (+400 for a Top 20) MC
Robert MacIntyre (+250 for a Top 20) MC
Kalle Samooja (+900 for a Top 20) MC
Brandon Stone (+800 for a Top 20) MC

RECAP – BARBASOL CHAMPIONSHIP

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Chesson Hadley T68
2 Chris Gotterup MC
3 Adam Svensson 6th
4 Kelly Kraft MC
5 Mark Hubbard 3rd
6 Josh Teater T63
7 Jim Herman T78
8 Kevin Streelman 2nd
9 Ryan Moore T54
10 Sam Ryder MC

OTHERS TO CONSIDER

Golfer Result
Michael Kim 7th
Yannik Paul 20th
Marcel Schneider MC
Justin Walters T63

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

July 12 … Derek Lamely (42); Alex Noren (40)
July 13 … Tyler Duncan (33)
July 14 … David Lipsky (34); Michael Kim (29)
July 15 … none
July 16 … Adam Scott (42)
July 17 … none
July 18 … Brendon de Jonge (42)