Draws and Fades: Masters Tournament

As if your senses already weren’t tingling for the Masters, we moved two pieces around.

RELATED: Pick 'Em Live preview| Horses for Courses| Sleeper picks

Pick ‘Em Preview pubbed early on Tuesday and not long before PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live turned over for the first major of the year. (If you’ve had trouble getting the interface on your mobile device to update for the Masters, a solution that’s seemed to work has been to log out of the game, power cycle the device, and then log back in.)

Now, here we are with Draws and Fades on Wednesday. If you were caught off-guard, please remember that my writing schedule is parked at the bottom of the Power Rankings every week.

On Wednesday morning, I was part of a four-headed Twitter Spaces at GolfBet with Ben Everill, Jason Sobel and Darren Rovell. I think I learned as much about betting, and betting on Tiger Woods specifically, because of the data that Rovell shared. It runs 50 minutes but consider giving it a listen here.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD
Kevin Kisner (+300 for a Top 20) … This year’s case study in current form v. course history. Something will give, and it’s usually not course history. T8 at Kapalua, T3 at Waialae, fourth at TPC Sawgrass and the runner-up at the Match Play – that’s the good. No better than a T21 in 2019 in six tries at Augusta National – that’s the other. It’s why you’ll find him as long as he is in the outright column. His place is in DFS, or not at all.

DRAWS
Adam Scott (+170 for a Top 20) … He’s been a Wild Card twice recently, and he deserves it again as an extension of the Power Rankings proper, but this slot works just the same. The 2013 champ hasn’t missed a cut at the Masters since 2009 and he’s remained as reliable pretty much everywhere recently as we’ve always known him to be. He works in every fantasy and gaming situation.

Daniel Berger (+110 for a Top 20) … The birthday boy on Thursday (see Birthdays below) easily could’ve been the Wild Card and, like Scott, an extension of the PR proper, so confidence is high. Berger’s form has been electric. The only reason he didn’t crack the PR is because his only top 25 at the Masters in four appearances was a T10 way back in his debut in 2016. The wrist injury prevented him from qualifying in 2019, and you’ll remember that he was among those who’d have qualified traditionally in 2020, but the criteria for that November Masters didn’t include the most recent performances post-shutdown.

Louis Oosthuizen (+130 for a Top 20) … Essentially immediately behind Scott in the same lane. The South African is reliable every week and he’s cashed in eight straight appearances. Oh, and he’ll be fine in the madness surrounding his grouping with Tiger Woods.

Webb Simpson (+600 for a Top 10) … As I suggested in the Pick ‘Em Preview (for the same finish), this is first-guessing his next impact. Stay ahead of the curve because it’s going to take off again. He’s made three starts since returning from time away due to a herniated disc in his neck. If he was going to sit out any of those stops, it’d have been the Match Play due to its potential grind. (He didn’t escape the Group Stage.)

Sam Burns (+125 for a Top 20) … Any other week – well, most others – and he’d have been in the Power Rankings. Of course, this is the Masters where experience plays and he’s a first-timer. Although he recently successfully defended his title at Copperhead, it wasn’t until after last year’s Masters (and later-scheduled Valspar Championship due to the pandemic) that he began winning on the PGA TOUR; thrice to be exact. Despite the absence of competitive action at Augusta National, he’s proved that it hasn’t mattered more often than most, so it’s really just another golf course, or at least he’s been able to convey that this has been his mindset. At +350, BetMGM slots him as the favorite among the 20 debutants. I dig it.

Stewart Cink (+500 for a Top 20) … This is my exact play in PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live. I stated my case in Pick ‘Em Preview on Tuesday. Unfortunately, you can’t get him at +850 anymore, but the argument is the same. Love him in DFS, too.

Abraham Ancer
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Tommy Fleetwood
Brian Harman
Billy Horschel
Si Woo Kim
Francesco Molinari
Justin Rose
Bubba Watson

Odds sourced on Wednesday, April 6 at 5 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm.

FADES
Bryson DeChambeau … If there’s anywhere where he can be long and wayward off the tee and still have a chance to contend, it’s Augusta National. However, given that he’s admitted that he’s only “80 percent” and still coming out of a tough stretch, it’s fair to judge that he’s returning too soon. So, expectations are very low.

Patrick Reed … Yes, Augusta National’s magnetic attraction to generate a positive result in the face of poor form is real, but it’d be nice to have a glimpse of something stronger than a pair of T26s upon arrival for the 2018 champ. His approach game remains untrustworthy.

Sergio Garcia … His form over time has been solid, but he’s 0-for-3 at the Masters since breaking through here in 2017. That almost doesn’t make sense given how well of a fit he is, not to mention experience dating back to 1999. Reserve for aggressive DFS considerations.

Joaquin Niemann … This is one of those weeks when it makes sense to sit on Draws and Fades until now. Too often, tee times aren’t published until after I file. In a vacuum, a top 30 is fair, but given that he’s grouped with Tiger Woods, no bueno. It’s been a long time since this dynamic has surfaced. The Chilean just won The Genesis Invitational that Woods hosts, so the spot in the threesome (with Louis Oosthuizen) makes sense, but he’s just 23. Not now.

Gary Woodland … Trap. Gang, look at the course history. It’s relevant this week. In nine appearances, he’s cashed only four times and only twice in his last six, neither time for a top 30.

Mackenzie Hughes … Not yet. If this was another November Masters, and he’d have qualified, he very well could’ve been a Sleeper or stronger because of his consistently strong form at the time. However, since this season has resumed, he’s just 2-for-6 in stroke-play competition. He played well at the Match Play (2-1-0) but he’s still deciphering the puzzle that is Augusta National.

Cameron Champ
Tony Finau
Lucas Glover
Max Homa
Jason Kokrak
Luke List
Thomas Pieters
Charl Schwartzel
Danny Willett
Matthew Wolff

RETURNING TO COMPETITION
Hideki Matsuyama … Forget about our considerations, you have to feel for the guy. He’s been beset by neck and back soreness for a few weeks, just in time to defend his first title in a major and the only in history by a male golfer from Japan. Meanwhile, the conservative gamer in me can’t endorse him until he’s put together a couple of solid performances.

Tiger Woods … Although this is his first official competition since the car crash over 13 months ago, it’s worth the positive reminder that he played in plain sight at the PNC Championship in December. No, it was far from a competitive gear, but it’s something, and that’s not nothing. The fun play this week is a Make the Cut prop. As my cohort, Glass, laid out in Pick ‘Em Preview, the five-time Masters champion – Tiger, not Glass (yet) – laid out the natural angle that Woods will not peg it this week unless he truly thinks he can win. I agree with 99 percent of that. I’m reserving a sliver of respect for Woods’ self-awareness of his impact on the sport and in this tournament. And I’m assigning a fraction of the sliver for his ego and how badly he wants to feel the game again. All that said, I’d be investing my units in Woods missing the cut. The combination of what we know about the extent of damage to his leg and the walk ahead this week is too much.

Paul Casey (+175 for a Top 20) … Back spasms ended his Match Play early, but that was two weeks ago. Oddly enough, there’s security in knowing that he’s experienced the same thing multiple times throughout his career. So, even though he’s 44, he’s in terrific shape and understands the nuance and has the confidence in this kind of recovery. Just like with Simpson in Draws, striking with Casey right now is timely.

NOTABLES WDs
Phil Mickelson … The three-time Masters champion remains out indefinitely.

Harris English … Remains on the mend from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right hip on Feb. 14. The advice remains the same that you read in this space for the week of THE PLAYERS. Now 219th in the FedExCup, he has no incentive to even think about returning sooner than later.

RECAP – VALERO TEXAS OPEN
POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Rory McIlroy MC
2 Corey Conners T35
3 Jordan Spieth T35
4 Chris Kirk T35
5 Adam Hadwin T4
6 Kevin Streelman T18
7 Maverick McNealy T35
8 Charley Hoffman MC
9 Gary Woodland T8
10 Abraham Ancer DNP
11 Robert MacIntyre T35
12 Matthew NeSmith MC
13 Ryan Palmer T48
14 Anirban Lahiri T13
15 Rasmus Højgaard T18
Wild Card Matt Kuchar T2

SLEEPERS
Golfer (Bet) Result
Aaron Baddeley (+1200 for a Top 20) T18
Branden Grace (+400 for a Top 20) MC
Patton Kizzire (+240 for a Top 20) MC
Russell Knox (+225 for a Top 20) T61
Greyson Sigg (+450 for a Top 20) T41

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR
April 5 … Henrik Stenson (46); Brendan Steele (39); Ryan Brehm (36)
April 6 … none
April 7 … Robert Streb (35); Joseph Bramlett (34); Jared Wolfe (34); Daniel Berger (29)
April 8 … none
April 9 … none
April 10 … none
April 11 … none