Pick 'Em Preview: BMW Championship

So much for a favorite paying short odds at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The first-place entry was on champion Will Zalatoris at +20000! Hey, it pays to monitor the boards in real time and lock in your selection. At that point, patience and the willpower not to act are your footholds of leverage.

Of course, Willy Z’s breakthrough title chased Tom Kim’s own coronation at the Wyndham Championship, and at +12500 no less. Remember, Kim opened his week with a snowman before running away to win by five.

When Pick ‘Em Live launched at The Genesis Invitational, we thought that experiences like these would be uncommon, but this is golf. There is no such thing. It all plays. If you ever needed a swing thought or a caddie in your ear, it’s to continue to exploit the possibilities.

As the fields shrink in the FedExCup Playoffs, it should be more challenging to hit on longer odds, but we’re going to find out if it even matters. Keep swinging your swing!

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TOURNAMENT

TO WIN

Rob … Collin Morikawa (+2000)

Since I’m unsure how much attention I’m going to be able to give this game during the tournament, I’m opening with the No. 1 in my Power Rankings.

This is pretty simple. He’s coming off a very strong performance in Memphis (T5), he’s still in pursuit of his first win of the season (and first in the FedExCup Playoffs) and he devours long, unfamiliar courses.

Glass … Sungjae Im (+2500)

The timer on the oven went off two weeks ago and whatever is left is burning inside.

T2 in the Twin Cities was followed by T2 at Wyndham and he added T12 last week. Making nothing, he painted fairways (T6) and GIR (T8), so all I need is a putter adjustment on a course where nobody has any prior knowledge!

TOP 10

Glass … Lucas Herbert (+1100)

The formula is simple for the long shots this week. Find the deepest bomber who makes the most putts. Every season there is a player or two who sneaks his way into the top 10, and this course and that skill set makes sense to me. On Saturday, if necessary, shift accordingly is you can get up that early!

Rob … Max Homa (+420)

While we don’t have to sweat a cut this week, it was a bit frustrating not visiting an open window on the weekend last week, so I swallowed Russell Henley’s MC. I scored decently overall, so it probably cost me a top-100 finish. And I didn’t think that I was gambling!

Homa is in my Power Rankings, but he’s never recorded a top 35 in the Playoffs. No doubt that’s a 0-fer that won’t last forever, so because his fit for Wilmington CC is fantastic, I’ll grab the longer odds while they’re available. I also don’t plan on worrying about the bet unlocking. Win-win; well, win-Top 10!

TOP 20

Glass … Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+410)

The cut-making machine is fantastic on the greens, so the bigger the greens, the better! Not much value in this category with the reduced field this week, so I'll take a shot on one of the best putters on TOUR.

Rob … J.T. Poston (+220)

Like a three-point shooter who can’t miss on the hardwood, he’s been unconscious in recent weeks. Omitting the surprise start at The Open, he’s gone T2-Win-T11-T21-T20. And there were foreshocks of a T3 (Harbour Town) and T9 (TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm).

Whenever I happen to catch an open window on the weekends with this bet, I tend to shop in the vicinity of this kickback but given the construct of the tournament and its smaller field, this should be of stronger value, so the plan is to set and forget.

ROUND 1

LEADER

Glass … Adam Scott (+4500)

For the third event in a row, the Aussie has gotten off to a start in the 60s, including 66 last week. We all know he's making the Presidents Cup regardless, but chasing a carrot to improve on last week’s T5 is the interesting angle.

Hit the top 10 last week with two doubles but neither round ended up over par, so something is brewing here. He's in the sixth of the 34 twosomes on Thursday – everyone goes off No. 1 – so I can adjust throughout the afternoon as long as the window is open, but only – and say it with me now – if necessary!

Rob … Corey Conners (+4500)

The Canuck goes out four pairings after Glass’ dart, so we’ll have ourselves a real-time race; well, at least HE hopes so!

My influence for the FRL always begins with the fact that I’m three hours behind on the clock for TOUR stops on the East Coast. So, the by time I’m coherent on Thursday, Conners should be nearing the turn. That gives me the proper moment to review things and pivot. IF NECESSARY!

NOTE: While Glass and Rob typically stick with their selections as detailed in Pick ‘Em Preview, they are allowed the right to make changes at any time.