Pick 'Em Preview: FedEx St. Jude Championship

The 2022 FedExCup Playoffs open with the last tournament of the season with a cut, so it could transpire as the last truly volatile experience. With all golfers promised 72 holes and with fields shrinking in the last two weeks, those will require a higher likelihood of correct guesses and at the most optimal of times. For now, it’s standard operating procedure at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

As the fellas below emphasize, the expectation is that opening short odds will win. If they’re right, riding your horse from the first tee to the finish line has merit.

It also means that the five who cash likely will have connected with the R1 leader, Top 10, Top 20 and/or ties in 2-balls, which should be offered with cooperating weather. The wildcards, as we’ve witnessed at times, is whether Low6 posts bets for R2 and/or R3 leaders. Unlike catching Tom Kim at +12500 to win the Wyndham Championship, this week’s approach very much is about teamwork.

So, if you never have stuck with your outright for an extended period of time, let him play at TPC Southwind, at least as long as he’s eligible.

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TOURNAMENT

TO WIN

Glass … Scottie Scheffler (+1500)

The premise of this game suggests taking a long shot and adjust accordingly as the event rolls on. Scheffler didn't mess around last year as he sat 13-under through 54 holes and was lurking for the final round.

Right, the final round counts as well, but I'm not leaning on an outsider this week as big names (and big favorites) have won this event recently. Angles on bermuda, tough courses and big events are all covered this week.

Rob … Patrick Cantlay (+1600)

Yeah, I’m with Glass, but I already was going to size up a stud for this tournament, so maybe I should’ve said that Glass has the right idea! Indeed, the FedExCup Playoffs have a way of bringing out the best in the best.

If Cantlay wins, it’d give him three consecutive victories in the Playoffs, albeit with the disclaimer that he wasn’t low aggregate in the TOUR Championship last year. (Speaking of which, factoring in Starting Strokes in this space in two weeks will be a hoot!) A win at TPC Southwind also would give him his first individual title since he captured the FedExCup, but he’s been close multiple times recently. The brilliance of his form has been as consistent as anyone’s; he’s just short on a break.

By the way, don’t expect a first-time winner. It’s happened only once in the Playoffs, and it was way back in 2008 when Camilo Villegas broke through at the BMW Championship.

TOP 10

Glass … Emiliano Grillo (+1000)

The "outsiders" to crack the top 10 here recently have been first-timers Sam Burns (P2, 2021), Will Zalatoris (T8, 2021) and Chez Reavie (T6, 2020). The angle this week is finding someone who is hot and can handle a field of this depth.

The Argentine rolls in with a T2 in two of his last three starts and will take his first crack at TPC Southwind like Burns and Zalatoris. Just hit all the fairways and greens!

Rob … Russell Henley (+460)

Another close call at Sedgefield validated his comfort and form overall, so it’s just a matter of getting a fair price.

I targeted the vicinity of his kickback because it’s right around where I consider pivoting after R1 and R2 most weeks, at least when I cop the open window. His fantastic tee-to-green game alone oughta retain his position in this prop, but small greens allow average-to-bad putters a puncher’s chance.

TOP 20

Rob … Taylor Pendrith (+270)

Since these are free coins, I’ll take ‘em.

OK, so they’re not free, but the rookie is performing like it’s a promotion to play. I get that the depth of this field is greater than each of his last four starts, but he rallied for top 15s in all, so, he has momentum. And if you need evidence of his class against the best, cue up the T16 at Torrey Pines and the T13 at TPC Sawgrass earlier this year.

Perhaps best of all, he’s healthy, and because he took the four-month sabbatical to recover from the fractured rib, he’s still arguably fresher than everyone else right now.

Glass … Max McGreevy (+2000)

From the frying pan and into the fire after his T5 last week at Wyndham. I like a flier when boiling-hot.

The boom or bust here is worth a watch because sometimes the brain frees up and all hell breaks loose. Knowing that the top 70 in the FedExCup is the next angle, he'll need better than a top 20. Go for it, dude!

Disclaimer: If it doesn't, time to set the alarm for the window bright and early Saturday morning! Use the rules to your advantage, folks!

ROUND 1

LEADER

Glass … Matthew NeSmith (+11000)

History tells us that the last three FRLs here in a limited OWGR field have posted 62 – Jon Rahm (2019), Brooks Koepka (2020) and Harris English (2021). That sample size suggests quality this week. It’s also worth pointing out that they posted such quaint totals in fields of only 78 players or less.

With DOUBLE the field we have DOUBLE the chances, right? I'll let the math folks figure that out, but I'm leaning on a bermuda, ball-striking longshot early to nip ahead. NeSmith opened with 65 on small greens at TPC River Highlands and got off to a hot start with 66 last week. The best part is that he's goes off first Thursday morning and I have PLENTY of room to navigate throughout the day.

Rob … Kurt Kitayama (+11000)

Welp, I called it in last week’s Pick ‘Em Preview. I focused only on the early starters going off No. 1 at Sedgefield, but I didn’t go early enough. My pick, Mark Hubbard, went out in the ninth threesome and shot 70, while the coins for R1 Leader already were reserved for investors of John Huh in the opening threesome. So, yeah, I want a prop for merely having the correct half of the correct half of the draw.

While I hold my breath for that, the par 35s at TPC Southwind are basically equal in their challenge, but Nos. 1-3 offer a springboard for everyone who can hit the ground running. We’re going to see a few birdie-birdie-birdie openers on the front, so that half of the draw again is my target range.

I’ve been waiting for an opportunity to jump on Kitayama in R1. He connected as the FRL at The Honda Classic and the Mexico Open at Vidanta, both with 64s. In his last three starts, he’s opened with 66, 68 and 67, respectively, so he hasn’t relented on his pattern of flooring with the light turns green.

NOTE: While Glass and Rob typically stick with their selections as detailed in Pick ‘Em Preview, they are allowed the right to make changes at any time.