A week after playing amidst significant elevation changes at Kapalua, the PGA TOUR shifts this week to the flatter, oceanside views of Waialae Country Club.

The change in topography is just one of the many stark differences between the two layouts. Greens are, on average, about 700 square feet smaller at Waialae than at the Plantation Course. The course is more than 550 yards shorter on the scorecard, with the par dropped from 73 to 70. What player skill sets find the most value invariably change, too: last week, Jon Rahm became the ninth consecutive winner of the Sentry Tournament of Champions to rank in the top ten that week in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. Only three of the last seven champs at Waialae have held that distinction.

Short Course Kings

Since the beginning of the 2017-18 season, 32.3 percent of courses played on TOUR have been under 7,100 yards on the scorecard. Among them is Waialae, the host of this week’s Sony Open in Hawaii. Since 2017-18, there are nearly 300 players with 20 or more PGA TOUR rounds on those setups. Six players in this week’s field that rank in the top-20 in scoring average on said courses in that span: Webb Simpson (2nd), Hideki Matsuyama (3rd), Keegan Bradley (13th), Harris English (14th), Brendon Todd (15th) and Matt Kuchar (20th).

Those aren’t the only interesting names and figures to surface from that analysis. Brian Harman has 28 rounds of 66 or better on courses under 7,100 yards in that span, most of any player. On courses under 7,100 yards, Patton Kizzire (4.53 per round) averages nearly as many birdies or better in that stretch as Tony Finau (4.54). Stewart Cink ranked 91st on TOUR last season in birdie average – but on short courses the last six seasons, he’s 13th in birdies or better per round, two spots behind Xander Schauffele. Since 2020, Harris English is ranked fifth on TOUR in scoring average on courses under 7,100 yards – a touch behind this week’s defending champion, Hideki Matsuyama.

Another intriguing player – Corey Conners – is ranked eighth in scoring on shorter layouts in that same stretch. Conners has done a bulk of his damage at this very event: over the last forty years, the Canadian has the second-best career scoring average (67.06) among players with at least a dozen rounds played at Waialae Country Club. There’s something about the greens at this venue that bring out the best in Conners. In his career, he’s averaged 0.88 Strokes Gained: Putting per round at this event – a stark contrast from a player who has never ranked inside the top 100 in that stat over the course of a full season.

Significance of Putting at Waialae

With longer players’ power advantages lessened, the significance of elite performance on the greens weighs heavier in determining winners at Waialae than the average PGA TOUR event. Since 2010, winners of the Sony Open in Hawaii have gained 48.6 percent of their strokes against the field via putting. That is the highest such percentage of any regularly played, one-course tournament on the PGA TOUR during that span. For context, the TOUR average share of Strokes Gained: Putting by tournament winners in that span is just 32.5 percent.

Seven of the last eight winners at Waialae ranked in the top five that week in Strokes Gained: Putting. Only four of those players ranked in the top five for the tournament in Strokes Gained: Approach. Meanwhile, the average driving distance ranking for tournament winners in that span is outside the top 20. These trends extend beyond just the players who wind up winning, too: over the last ten years, players to finish in the top 10 at Waialae gained 39% of their strokes against the field putting, by far the highest share among the four primary disciplines.

Brendan Steele leads all players in the last five years at Waialae in Strokes Gained: Putting per round (+1.22). It’s no coincidence he’s tied for sixth in scoring average during that span (67.0), with top-five finishes in both 2020 (2nd) and 2021 (T-4).

Making the trip from Kapalua to Honolulu

With the steep qualifications to get into last week’s event, it’s easy to understand the correlation between playing well at the Sony Open and having teed it up the previous week at Maui. Eight of the last nine players to win the Sony Open in Hawaii competed the previous week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Of the 51 players to consecutively tee it up in both events the last two years, 42 – a whopping 82.4 percent – went on to make the cut. Those players averaged 0.92 Strokes Gained: Total per round for the week at Waialae, posting a scoring average south of 67.

Again, the sheer strength of the field at the Sentry Tournament of Champions – an event whose very name largely indicates the stout field that week – is needed context for this statistic. But consider this: the last two years, players who came from Maui to Honolulu the following week have a scoring average 1.4 strokes better per round than their counterparts making their first PGA TOUR start of the calendar year.