2022 The American Express, Round 1

Scoring conditions by course:

Nicklaus Tournament: -2.44 strokes per round
Stadium Course: -0.73
La Quinta: -2.87

Current cutline (top 65 and ties)

72 players at -3 or better (T52)

Top 3 projected cutline probabilities:

1. 8 under par: 24.7%
2. 7 under par: 23.2%
3. 9 under par: 18.0%

Top 10 win probabilities:

1. Patrick Cantlay (T1, -10, 35.2%)
2. Jon Rahm (T13, -6, 12.1%)
3. Kyounghoon Lee (T3, -8, 5.8%)
4. Seamus Power (T5, -7, 4.7%)
5. Lee Hodges (T1, -10, 3.5%)
6. Joseph Bramlett (T5, -7, 3.1%)
7. Cameron Young (T3, -8, 2.2%)
8. Taylor Moore (T13, -6, 1.7%)
9. Tom Hoge (T5, -7, 1.7%)
10. Danny Lee (T5, -7, 1.6%)

NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of THE NORTHERN TRUST, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.