The Five: Can Rory McIlroy start strong, other pressing questions at Masters

It is said that whatever you think about last before going to bed is what you will dream about. It's why Xander Schauffele thinks about a Masters green jacket.

“As many dreams … as I can have wearing a green jacket or someone putting it on me on the 18th green, that's what I try and envision,” Schauffele said Monday.

Schauffele has come close. He finished runner-up to Tiger Woods in 2019, but Schauffele is still chasing that dream. It’s a universal feeling among those on the grounds at Augusta National. If you’re a professional golfer, you’ve most likely dreamed of a putt to win the Masters or contemplated what you’d put on your Champions Dinner menu. Schauffele is still waiting for a chance to play Augusta National with his dad, Stefan. Schauffele could likely make it happen, but his dad won’t allow it. Not yet.

“He told me a long time ago, ‘I'm only going to play when you're a member,’” Schauffele said.

Someone will realize those dreams this week. Schauffele is one of the favorites coming off a strong start to his season, highlighted by his T2 at THE PLAYERS Championship. But he isn’t one of our biggest storylines. That’s what The Five is dedicated to this week. As players refine their preparation before Thursday’s opening round, let’s take stock of what’s to come. The Five examines the must-follow storylines that set the stage for the year's first major championship.

1. Tiger Woods: Focus on the cut, not contention

When Tiger Woods tees it up on Thursday at the Masters, it will be just his third competitive round of 2024. If he finishes the round, it will be just his second completed round in an official PGA TOUR event since last year’s Masters.

It’s inarguable to say Woods can find magic at Augusta National. It’s also inarguable that Woods lacks the one thing he’s preached as necessary for much of his career: competitive reps. His only start of 2024 came at The Genesis Invitational in February, and he withdrew during his second round with flu-like symptoms.

So what will win out: experience or rust?

That sets up an exciting push-and-pull with history as its backdrop. Woods has made 23 consecutive cuts at the Masters, tied with Gary Player and Fred Couples for the longest streak in tournament history. He can take that record for himself this year.

“I think it's consistency, it's longevity and it's an understanding of how to play this golf course,” Woods said. “... And it means a lot.”

If there’s a place Woods can piece it together, it’s Augusta National. But to expect Woods to contend is difficult, particularly when some of the sport's other top stars are in top form. Woods’ fight to make the cut will still be plenty intriguing and realistic. Holding the consecutive cuts record at Augusta would be fitting for the man who owns the longest consecutive cuts made record on the PGA TOUR.

And if he happens to turn back the clock through two rounds and push toward contention, even better.

2. Is Scheffler’s putting fixed?

The saga that never ends. Scottie Scheffler enters the Masters as the heavy favorite to claim his second green jacket in three years. He put together a dominant month of March, winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and THE PLAYERS Championship. It looked like he had solved the putting woes that had plagued him from truly dominating the PGA TOUR over the last 24 months.

Then he pulled a 6-footer on the 72nd hole of the Texas Children’s Houston Open to miss a playoff and the possibility of his third consecutive win. Was it a simple misread? Or is it a sign that Scheffler still has some work to shore up the putter in the biggest moments? Remember, Scheffler famously four-putted on the final hole of the 2022 Masters, and the glassy greens of Augusta are no place to lose confidence in your flatstick.

It seems reductive to say the putting is the only thing that matters for Scheffler at Augusta, but he’s shown it to be true. His superb ball-striking has traveled to every event for the past two years. Whether Scheffler wins or loses falls solely on the one variable can’t seem to control: putting.

3. Approach play, fast start key to Rory McIlroy’s chances

Rory McIlroy’s quest for a Masters title is often considered a “matter of when.” Given his talent, stature and course fit, a green jacket is assumed to be inevitable. Yet the more years McIlroy leaves empty-handed, the more the pressure ramps up and the definitive proclamations begin to crack.

This Masters will be McIlroy’s 10th attempt at completing the career Grand Slam. This year also marks 10 years since his last major victory. McIlroy revealed it feels like he’s trying to win his first again. So as close as he’s come to achieving Masters glory, he’s in some ways no closer to it than when he made his debut at Augusta National in 2009.

But for all the consternation McIlroy has faced about his Masters shortcomings, it could all change in four days. To do it, McIlroy will need to improve his approach play, which has been his Achilles’ heel at Augusta National and for most of this season.

There were signs of life at last week’s Valero Texas Open. He finished third in Strokes Gained: Approach and notched his first top-10 on the PGA TOUR this season. That came a week after he sought advice from legendary swing coach Butch Harmon.

But it’s hard to say if that will continue this week. McIlroy has come to the Masters playing amazing and then missed the cut. He has nearly won the Masters after missing the cut the week prior.

The key will be his start. Over the last 10 years, McIlroy’s scoring average in the first and second rounds is 72.3. His weekend scoring average is 69.4, nearly three shots better.

Then there’s this stat: 36 of the last 37 Masters champions have been in the top 10 through two rounds, according to Justin Ray of Twenty First Group.

McIlroy starting slow is not an option. If McIlroy is finally going to get the monkey off his back, there will be signs. It starts with improved approach play and a fast start.

4. Best first-timers class since …

Every crop of Masters first-timers features a few studs. Last year showcased Tom Kim and Sahith Theegala alongside amateurs Sam Bennett and Gordon Sargent. The prior year included Sam Burns and Min Woo Lee.

I’d challenge someone to come up with a better first-timers class than this year’s, though. Among the players making their debut at the Masters are reigning U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark, Ludvig Åberg and Nicolai Højgaard – two European Ryder Cuppers – and two PGA TOUR winners under age 23 in Nick Dunlap and Akshay Bhatia.

The headliners are Clark and Åberg, who enter the week at Nos. 4 and 9 in the world, respectively. Clark, the rare major champion who has not yet played Augusta, might have three wins this season if not for Scottie Scheffler. He finished runner-up to Scheffler in back-to-back weeks at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and THE PLAYERS Championship. He won the rain-shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He’s shown himself to be a big-game hunter and is arguably the second-best player in the world right now behind Scheffler. How he tackles Augusta National as a first-timer will be fascinating.

The context of Åberg’s debut might be even crazier. The 24-year-old played in a Ryder Cup, won PGA TOUR and DP World Tour events and cracked the top 10 in the world before playing a major championship. The Masters is not only his tournament debut but his major championship debut. His game is a fit at any course, Augusta National included, but this is a new stage for the Swede – who has handled everything else in his path.

Other first-timers include reigning PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year Eric Cole, current-season winners Jake Knapp, Matthieu Pavon, Austin Eckroat and Stephan Jaeger and world No. 1 amateur Christo Lamprecht.

They will all be chasing rarified air. Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 was the last Masters rookie to win the green jacket. If there was going to be a year to do it, it might be someone from this class of first-timers.

5. How will the weather affect the course?

One of the marvels of golf architecture, Augusta National has not had the opportunity to flex its full strength on the field in recent years as rainy conditions have softened what can be a firm and fiery test.

Given early feedback from the ground, that could change this year. Reports indicate the course is as firm and fast as it has been in several years.

“I mean, I was hitting 5-irons that were coming into par 5s that were bouncing, tomahawking over the green, and I was like, ‘This is pretty cool.’ It's been a while,” Schauffele said Monday.

Whether it stays that way will be the question. Current forecasts estimate more than an inch of rain could fall on Thursday, though any precipitation seems largely isolated to just Thursday. With windy and dry conditions expected to come through the Augusta area following the rain, the hope for a firm and fiery test over the weekend is still a strong possibility.

What the weather will do remains to be seen, but players have their preferences on how they would like it to play.

“If the course is playing hard and fast, it's more difficult. Winning score is usually … higher,” 2021 Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama said. “When it's wet, I mean, it can go to 20-under. I like both, but if it goes to 20-under, my chances … get slimmer. So, I would like a tougher setup where it plays drier, fast and hard.”

Added reigning Open Championship winner Brian Harman: “I prefer it to be hot and windy. I feel like that gives me the best opportunity. When it's cold and wet, that's kind of a tough row to hoe for me.”