FedExCup top-50 bubble drama takes center stage in Memphis

MEMPHIS, Tenn. – As Keith Mitchell rolled up his powder blue pant legs and waded carefully into the lake that guards the left side of the 18th hole at TPC Southwind, he knew exactly where he stood.

Mitchell started the FedEx St. Jude Championship at No. 49 in the season-long points race, but with one hole to go, there was work to do. He had struggled for much of the final round and was projected to drop to No. 51 in points, needing a birdie to keep his chances of advancing to the BMW Championship alive.

“I really had no idea where I stood until walking off 17 green,” Mitchell said. “If I’m way in, I can just lay up out to the right and make five and be good, but I knew I was one back.”

Mitchell’s tee shot drifted left, with the ball coming to rest on a grassy bank that required him to take a baseball swing for his final approach while standing in shin-deep water. It’s a shot he may have played differently during any other round this year, but with his season hanging in the balance, he took an aggressive swipe.

He made clean contact, but the ball bounced left again at the green and into the water. It led to a closing bogey and effectively ended Mitchell’s season just short of the all-important top-50 cutoff.

Mitchell had not made the BMW Championship since 2022, and he knows all too well the importance of earning guaranteed spots in all of the Signature Events. This year his play earned him starts in four of the eight Signature Events, but for others he stalled out as first alternate or just outside of the field cutoff.

A chance to earn some schedule stability went for naught on Sunday in Memphis, where Mitchell ultimately finished No. 51 in the standings.

“It’s tough because this year I was like, one foot in, one foot out all year, in the majors, in the Signature Events. I didn’t have a schedule,” Mitchell said. “If you’re in (the Signature Events) at the start of the season, it’s a different life, literally, as a PGA TOUR player. It felt like that out there today.”

Amid various bubble projections and scenarios, Mitchell was the only player bumped out of those that began the week inside the top 50. Sungjae Im, who moved from No. 53 to No. 40 after a T5 finish behind Scottie Scheffler, is the only player to crash the party next week at Bellerive Country Club.

But ample drama played out near the cutoff among those who were clinging to spots by thin margins. Two years ago Maverick McNealy left TPC Southwind projected at No. 50, only to see players finishing behind him bump him to the wrong side of the bubble. This time around, after starting the week at No. 50, he shot a final-round 69 to finish T19 and move up to No. 49, securing his spot in the Signature Events for the second straight year.

McNealy had his logistical options covered for either scenario, but he was all too happy to cancel his flight home to Las Vegas and instead have his brother and caddie, Scout, extend a car rental for their trek to Bellerive.

“Much happier trip not going to the airport and just driving a car up the river (to St. Louis),” McNealy said. “I think the top-50 number is probably the most important number on the PGA TOUR right now. … With all the challenges on the golf course this year, really proud of being able to grind out top 50.”

The 50th and final spot went to a player who admitted he thought he had “no chance” after three rounds in Memphis. Matt McCarty started the week at No. 48 but was near the bottom of the 54-hole standings. Projected at No. 52 to begin the day, he carded a 1-over 71 that left him tied for 63rd in a 68-man field. McCarty finished his round before the leaders teed off and faced a less than 50% chance of advancing, per Data Golf, when he signed his scorecard and faced an agonizing wait to learn his fate.

“Yesterday I booked a flight. I’m going back to Chicago, and if I end up having to drive down to St. Louis on Monday, I’ll be happy,” McCarty said. “I’m going to hop on a plane and not look at my phone for a while. I think it’s better than kind of looking at it a lot.”

When McCarty touched down in the Windy City, he likely saw that things had bounced his way. Players ahead of him like Brian Harman and Jordan Spieth faded in the final round, and McCarty ultimately finished seven FedExCup points ahead of Mitchell for the all-important 50th spot.

Beginning the week at No. 54, Spieth admitted that it was a “tall task” for him to advance. He estimated a top-10 finish was required, and he had a chance with an opening-round 65 that gave him a share of the lead.

But a final-round 70 – replete with plenty of Spieth-like moments like a tee shot that stopped near a walking bridge on the par-3 11th and a wayward tee shot on No. 18 that bounded into the trees – left him in a tie for 19th this week and 52nd in the points race.

Spieth earned starts in the first two Signature Events this year via the Aon Next 10, and he’ll be in good shape for a similar path heading into next year. While the rest of his 2027 schedule won’t be as firm as he would prefer, he took an optimistic view after wrapping the Playoffs with his 10th top 25 of the year – none of which landed him inside the top 10.

“It’s funny, I just feel like I’m kind of getting back to playing really good golf, like it’s close to kicking off, and I’m not going to play a tournament for a long time,” Spieth said. “This will be the last time I finish like this for a while. I’m very, very confident in what’s coming. I just ran out of steam and maybe made a couple bad decisions over about a six-week stretch on what I was working on, and I just didn’t quite have enough time to make up for it.”

Spieth left TPC Southwind with his wife, Annie, by his side. For him and Mitchell, the postseason pursuit is over and a bounty of starts in Signature Events remains just out of reach. For McNealy, McCarty and 48 others, the destination now shifts north to St. Louis – and the prospects for further success in 2027 just got a lot brighter.

“You want to play against the best players in the world. Those are the guys you grew up watching on TV. You want to play at the highest level, and that’s what these Signature Events are,” McNealy said. “It’s something that basically 50 guys get to do is know where they’re playing, starting January 1. That just makes your life so much better and so much more predictable.”