FedExCup Insider: Koepka, Rose facing historic hurdle
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PORTRUSH, NORTHERN IRELAND - JULY 20: Brooks Koepka of the United States (centre) and Justin Rose of England (R) shake hands on the 18th green during the third round of the 148th Open Championship held on the Dunluce Links at Royal Portrush Golf Club on July 20, 2019 in Portrush, United Kingdom. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Written by Mike McAllister
To make the FedExCup Playoffs this season, Brooks Koepka and Justin Rose will have to do something no veteran PGA TOUR member in the last decade has ever achieved in the final 10 weeks of the regular season.
Koepka, the two-time PGA TOUR Player of the Year, and Rose, the 2018 FedExCup champ, each sit outside the top 200 in FedExCup points. The standings, of course, have not changed in the last three months after the season was suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
With this season resuming this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, there will be 10 weeks (11 tournaments) left before the FedExCup Playoffs. Since 2009 when the last significant change was made to the FedExCup points structure, no established player outside the top 200 with 10 weeks left has ever made the Playoffs.
Koepka, who led the regular season standings entering last season’s Playoffs, currently is 213th in points, having made just five starts this season after battling back from injury. Rose is 205th, also with just five starts – including three missed cuts in his four starts in the 2020 calendar year.
To no one’s surprise, the uber-confident Koepka is not particularly worried about having to make up so much ground in a limited span.
“If I do what I'm supposed to do, I'll be just fine,” he said Wednesday. “I didn't do what I was supposed to do in the first five events. It is what it is; I can't change it. It's in the past. But you never know.
“I mean, you can rattle off 10 wins, and I think that's kind of irrelevant.”
Actually, one win would do the trick, but you get his point.
Since 2009, the biggest move by a veteran from outside the top 125 to make the FedExCup Playoffs happened in 2016. Jim Furyk, sidelined for several months due to a left wrist injury, was 199th in points with 10 weeks left. But he tied for second in his next start at the U.S. Open at Oakmont, and then finished the regular season with a flourish with top-10s in his last two starts to seal his spot in the Playoffs, entering the first post-season event that year ranked 94th.
Of course, as we saw about this time last year, players can come from nowhere to make the Playoffs down the stretch.
Collin Morikawa and Matthew Wolff were just turning pro after stellar collegiate careers. Morikawa soon produced two top-5 finishes before winning the Barracuda Championship. Wolff – just six weeks after winning the NCAA individual title at Oklahoma State – won the 3M Open. The wins gave each full membership privileges and allowed them to qualify for the Playoffs. Morikawa entered 49th; Wolff entered 70th.
While 200 and above has been the no-go zone for veterans, just even being outside the top 125 with 10 weeks left in the season is a big challenge to overcome.
Since 2009, there have been 1,312 players ranked outside the top 125 with 10 weeks left. Just 109 of those worked their way into the top 125 to make the Playoffs – a conversion rate of 8.3%.
Most of the successful ones, of course, moved in the back end of the standings. Just getting inside the top 125 and making the Playoffs is one thing but moving up as much as possible certainly is the more advantageous goal.
Two years ago, Francesco Molinari was 129th in points with 10 weeks left. Then he won the Quicken Loans National, followed by the Open Championship, and by the time the Playoffs started, he was eighth in points. No surprise that he claimed one of the 30 spots for the TOUR Championship.
Molinari’s move up 121 spots is not the biggest leap in the final 10 weeks. The biggest move was made by Billy Hurley III in 2016. He went from 194th to 69th thanks mostly to his Quicken Loans win that year. Overall, nine players since 2009 have moved up 100 or more spots in those final 10 weeks.
While the three-month suspension reduced the number of starts Koepka and Rose could’ve used to make up ground, it also lowered the projected number of points needed to make the Playoffs.
Based on currently projections, it will take anywhere from 279 to 297 points to earn a Playoff spot. Rose currently has 36 points and would need a minimum of 243 points to have a shot. Koepka has 21 points and would need a minimum of 258 points.
A solo second or a couple of top-4 finishes should do the trick for either one.
Let’s face it – despite the statistical history, it will be more shocking of either former world No. 1 didn’t qualify for the Playoffs. Don’t be surprised if they seal their spots this week; after all, Rose won at Colonial two years ago, while Koepka was solo second.
Oh, and if you’re looking ahead … Koepka will be the defending champ in two of the last 10 events, at the World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and the PGA Championship, where he’s the two-time reigning champ. Those tournaments will be played on consecutive weeks in the adjusted TOUR schedule.
Who knows, perhaps Koepka might be in the middle of rattling off 10 wins.




