Horses for Courses: Expect international shootout at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

May begins with an ol’ fashion wild west shootout with THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson in the Dallas suburb of McKinney, Texas.

Since 1968, Byron Nelson has been synonymous with this event held in the Dallas area. After recent stops at TPC Four Seasons and Trinity Forest, TPC Craig Ranch took over hosting duties starting with the 2021 tournament.

Opened in 2004, the Tom Weiskopf design, like most things in Texas, is bigger than most tracks. Playing to 7,414 yards, the par-71 layout, changed from par-72 for the 2023 edition, provides plenty of room to work the golf ball with and against the wind that blows in this part of the world.

With all that room, the best players in the world have little trouble scoring on this layout. K.H. Lee (+5000) won the first two editions at TPC Craig Ranch and set the tournament scoring record each time. Posting 25-under and winning by three, the Korean picked up his first victory on the PGA TOUR in the 2021 edition. Successfully defending his title in 2022, he went one shot better, 26-under. Squaring only six bogeys against 53 birdies and two eagles, he finally ran out of gas in 2023. Signing for four more rounds of 70 or better and running his total to 12 straight, his 11-under-par total of 273 was good for a tie for 50th. Yep, 11-under-par did NOT finish in the top 50 last year! Go lower!

Strokes Gained: Approach the Green

Players listed are in the field this week; 2024 season stats.

When the wind blows – and it will blow – the players who can control the golf ball will have the advantage this week. The Bentgrass green complexes are almost 6,800 square feet, on average, and provide massive targets that most will hit repeatedly. Flighting wedges and holding shots into the proper quadrants will provide more realistic scoring chances than having approach putts from outside 40 feet.

Jason Day (+2000), the third choice at BetMGM Sportsbook, posted four rounds in the 60s last year to take home his second trophy in a Byron Nelson event. Winning for the first time on TOUR at TPC Four Seasons in 2011 at 22, the 35-year-old opened with 64 and closed with 62 last year to win on 23-under, the highest winning total from the three editions. With the average winning score registering at 24-under and the highest total to make the cut at 4-under, scores in the 70s this week will likely ensure an early checkout. The Australian posted 70-69 here in 2021, 5-under-par, and went home early. In the 2022 edition, he posted three rounds in the 60s, but a 73 in Round 3 knocked him to 13-under and T53. Yep, 13-under did NOT crack the top 50.

Rounds in the 60s

Dallas native Jordan Spieth (+1600), the betting favorite this week, will look to build on his two excellent performances at TPC Craig Ranch. Appearing in the inaugural edition in 2021, the former Texas Longhorn shared the first-round lead on 63 but posted rounds of 70 and 71 to finish T9. Playing in the final group the following year, his final round 67 could not catch Lee to force a playoff. Posting 43-under in two visits, he has circled 48 birdies and four eagles.

Putting: Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage

Bentgrass greens, the first time in use this season on TOUR outside Augusta National, will only run at 11.5 feet on the Stimpmeter (wind), a perfect speed for holing putts. Paying off the approaches for birdies or saving pars and not losing ground is important in keeping up in a shootout. Over three events at TPC Craig Ranch, the cut has been 4-under or BETTER, and single digits under par after 72 holes did not register a spot inside the TOP 60. The 2022 event produced the most birdies and eagles on TOUR.

Si Woo Kim (+1800) trails Spieth as second choice at the top of the BetMGM odds board. Trying to emulate his countryman’s effort of coming from behind to win the 2022 edition, Kim’s final round 63 last year could not match Day’s 62. Making his fourth appearance in Dallas, the four-time winner on TOUR has never posted a round above par in 10 chances.

Oddsmaker’s extras

Seamus Power (+5000): Making his fourth consecutive start, the Irishman will look to add to his success outside Dallas. Cashing T19 or better on all three visits, he’s the only player in that exclusive club. Posting 70 once in 12 rounds, the other 11 loops were all in the 60s.

Daniel Berger (+10000): The only other player in the field with a podium result, T3 in 2021, the Florida man returns to an event where he’s produced T23 or better in three visits on three different tracks. Playing his way back into form, Dallas has always provided a spark. Posting 64 in 2021 is his best of four rounds in the 60s.

Joseph Bramlett (+10000): Opening with 64 in 2021, the Stanford man began a streak of 12 straight rounds of 70 or better. Posting 48-under par over three visits, he returned to the top 20 (T19) last season after four more rounds in the 60s.

Ryan Palmer (+12500): The Colleyville, Texas, resident joins Spieth and K.H. Lee as the only players to have multiple top-10 paydays in the first three events. After blowing a tire in 2021 with a final round 75, the Colonial Country Club member returned in 2022 to share the 36-hole lead before cashing T5. The 2023 edition saw him improve as he shared the 54-hole lead before a final round 68 caused him to slip to T8. Highlighted by 62 in 2022, 10 of 12 career rounds are 70 or better.

C.T. Pan (+10000): Making his debut for the 2023 edition, he posted four rounds in the 60s, including a career-best 62 on Sunday to secure solo fourth.

Zecheng “Marty” Dou (+25000): Entered this week as sponsor’s exemption, the Dallas resident opened with 63 and posted 64 in Round 3 to share the 54-hole lead last year. Finishing with 67, he dropped to T5, his best payday on TOUR. Everybody needs a long shot!

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