Draws and Fades: Patrick Cantlay a safe bet to climb weekend leaderboard at FedEx St. Jude Championship

Friday at the FedEx St. Jude Championship was defined by reassurance. The best player in the world reassured us that he is that guy, with his dominance on full display en route to a sizzling 9-under par 61 that was good enough to tie the course record at TPC Southwind.

Just 24 hours ago, five players walked away with a share of the lead, but the world No. 1 brought his A-game to Memphis for round two and politely removed them all from the conversation.

Friday was one of the best days of Scheffler’s career. I’m not exaggerating. He beat the field's second-round average by 8.5 shots, his best mark for an individual round in the last two years! After an incredible 11 birdies today, he's three shots clear of Sungjae Im and Viktor Hovland headed into the weekend.

Im, who needs a big week at the FedEx St. Jude to advance to the BMW Championship, posted his second consecutive 66 (-4) and looks as steady as ever with his iron play. Hovland is right there as well with the second-best round of the day, and Jordan Spieth was able to catch fire late in his round to maintain a position in the top five.

Odds have been updated and have obviously shifted dramatically as Scheffler has gobbled up a grand share of the win equity.

With 36 holes left to play and a course in TPC Southwind that is susceptible to birdie runs, this weekend could bring volatility in the secondary markets. The oxygen has not been completely sucked out of the Memphis air, although some in attendance may beg to differ, as we look ahead to our draws and fades.

Updated odds to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship (DraftKings)

• -205: Scottie Scheffler
• +960: Viktor Hovland
• +1375: Ludvig Aberg
• +1700: Sungjae Im
• +2000: Tommy Fleetwood

Draws: Patrick Cantlay Top 5 (+380)

With the best player in the world now in the driver's seat, I don’t find it wise to continue to chase the outright-to-win market. It feels considerably more reasonable when looking at Patrick Cantlay, whose ball-striking numbers were excellent Friday, to climb a few spots into the top five across the weekend rather than somehow chase down Scheffler.

Cantlay has been known to be reliable around this property, finishing runner-up in 2023, and has posted consecutive top 15s in the last two editions. Now, he sits at 5-under and six strokes back and we just need the iron play to remain steady as we saw on Friday, and I expect him to continue to climb the leaderboard over the weekend.

Cantlay could use a big week, and the FedExCup points that come along with it (he entered the tournament No. 42), but he’ll remain methodical in the final two rounds and work his way into the mix. It’s going to be a grind in Memphis, especially if Scheffler runs away with it, and Cantlay is built for the task. The +380 is awfully appealing.

Fade: Kurt Kitayama

Kurt Kitayama was one of five co-leaders after Thursday’s round, but I believe Friday’s struggles should serve as a major warning sign for his weekend prospects. A 3-over 73 moved him down the leaderboard into a share of 27th place, and the pressure that TPC Southwind puts him under routinely makes him a target to fade in matchups moving forward.

Kitayama is getting decimated on the greens, exposing a general liability in his game. Through two rounds, he ranks 52nd in putting, 53rd around the greens and 41st off the tee. Those kinds of numbers put your approach play under extreme scrutiny, which can wear on a player who has already ejected from the lead, and the stats indicate he should be in a worse place than 27th.

He came into this week with notable struggles over the years at TPC Southwind, with mostly forgettable results. I expect the weekend will repeat this pattern.

His ball-striking in general is legitimately good, but if the driver is not cooperating and he can only hit half of the fairways, I can see him easily moving in the wrong direction. I feel much more comfortable betting against him than predicting a bounce back.