Bettors beware. Of the 19 players within five shots of the lead at The American Express, 14 of them have yet to play the toughest course in the rotation and as such could be "false" leaders as we head to the weekend in the Coachella Valley.

For the second straight day, the Pete Dye Stadium Course played as the hardest of the three venues with the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club much easier. As such, the players yet to tackle the Stadium Course have naturally poked their way to the pointy end of the leaderboard.

The Stadium Course averaged 71.806 on Friday, better than the 72.230 on Thursday, but still well behind La Quinta’s 68.680 (up from 68.286) and Nicklaus Tournament was even more prolific at 67.616, down from Thursday's 68.154.

Charley Hoffman, a winner 18 years ago in the event, and Rico Hoey both shot 9-under 63s on the Nicklaus Tournament Course to move to 16-under and into a share of the lead. Justin Lower (-15, T3), Jason Day (-14, T6) and J.J. Spaun (-14, T6) are on the same rotation of courses.

But it is Mark Hubbard and Sepp Straka, who put up great 8-under 64s on the Stadium Course to move to 15-under and T3 who perhaps are the best poised after 36 holes. And the oddsmakers agree.

Straka is the new favorite at +330 – a nod to the fact he’s won a shootout before at the John Deere Classic. He also is yet to post a bogey. Hubbard is +450 chasing his first win with just one bogey over two rounds.

Last week’s winner Nick Taylor sits in a tie for eighth having yet to play the easiest Nicklaus Tournament Course. He’s joined there by big-name stars Justin Thomas and Rickie Fowler, both of whom hit the tougher Stadium Course on Saturday.

While Straka and Hubbard proved going low on the Stadium Course is still achievable, the opposite also lurks. Just ask 18-hole leader J.T. Poston who shot 10-under to lead at the Nicklaus Tournament only to back it up with a 4-over 76 on Stadium. He now sits T58.

The reset odds after the second round via FanDuel represent the same thinking as above and sit as follows:

• +330: Sepp Straka (-15 NT-SC, T3)
• +450: Mark Hubbard (-15 NT-SC, T3)
• +800: Nick Taylor (-13 SC-LQ, T8)
• +900: Rico Hoey (-16 LQ-NT, T1)
• +1100: Charley Hoffman (-16 LQ-NT, T1)
• +1200: Justin Thomas (-13 LQ-NT, T8)
• +1800: Justin Lower (-15 LQ-NT, T3)
• +2000: Jason Day (-14 LQ-NT, T6); J.J. Spaun (-14 LQ-NT, T6)

And so you have to be wary of seemingly juicy odds for proven major winners like Day and Thomas. Will they be able to maintain a quick pace at the Stadium Course. If they do, then they will rocket to favoritism fast. Thomas is the most intriguing given he shot a sublime 61 on the Stadium Course in this same position a year ago.

I certainly understand why Straka is the favorite from here. I can easily see him shooting lights out at La Quinta on Saturday. But I’d probably wait and see given hie short odds. If you are looking or more juice as an entry point, I’d be looking at the gentlemen that follow.

Draws

Nick Taylor +900

When Taylor is in a mood to make putts, he is as dangerous as they come on the PGA TOUR. I am still in disbelief at how he played post winning the WM Phoenix Open last season because he looked like a world-beater in that desert climate – a real killer when in the mix. After falling off the map for the rest of the season the real Taylor came back at the Sony Open in Hawaii last week. When the going got intense, he stepped up and took the bull by the horns. With a round still to come at the Nicklaus Tournament Course, Taylor is in great shape to set up rare back-to-back TOUR wins.

Justin Thomas +1200

This is a RISKY play for all the reasons mentioned above. He has to take on the Pete Dye Stadium Course tomorrow. But his T3 from a year ago, which included a course record-tying 61 on the Stadium Course, has me thinking this could be the turnaround I’ve been advocating will happen this season. The six straight birdies to finish his round on Friday were very impressive, especially considering his weakness is usually his putter. If he’s feeling it on the greens, he is a name on the leaderboard that others will take notice of.

Harry Hall +4000

The +200 for a Top 10 might be smarter but I was looking at who might be able to replicate the Saturday 60 Nick Dunlap put up a year ago to get into the mix and landed on the Englishman Hall. He can make birdies in bunches so if you’re looking for a lottery pick at this point, he could be the man as he heads to La Quinta.

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