The promised birdie fest at The American Express certainly materialized, but it is players who had the toughest Pete Dye Stadium Course on Thursday who should pique your interest in live betting markets.

While J.T. Poston started with a blistering 10-under 62 on the Nicklaus Tournament Course – and he was one of my two outright picks in our pre-tournament expert picks – the value now comes from others set to attempt to chase him down over the next three days.

Hopefully you heeded advice and jumped on Poston at the +6000 before things began because now, he sits as the leader and +750 betting favorite. I’m still hopeful of a wire-to-wire effort but am mindful of the three-course rotation of this event.

The scoring averages at the Nicklaus Tournament (68.154) and La Quinta Country Club (68.286) venues were markedly different from the host Pete Dye Stadium Course (72.230), which of course will also host the final round.

So as good as Poston’s blitz was, Carson Young, Jackson Suber and Sony Open winner Nick Taylor’s 7-under 65s on the Stadium Course may have been a touch better. And while Taylor, Suber and Young head to La Quinta Country Club on Friday, Poston comes to the Stadium knowing life will be potentially a little tougher.

For this reason, Poston becomes a potential hold if you’re not already on board to see how he attacks the Stadium. You can say the same for all Thursday scorers from Nicklaus Tournament Course. Poston did win in the Las Vegas desert in the fall in a similar shootout at the Shriners Children's Open.

But on the other hand, the Thursday Stadium trio, are in great shape to continue a hot pace. And those at La Quinta Country Club on Thursday can keep the roll going at the Nicklaus Tournament Course on Friday.

Back-to-back eagles on his back nine helped catapult Justin Lower to second place with a 9-under 63 at La Quinta, the same venue where former TOUR winners Jason Day, Chris Kirk and J.J. Spaun shot 64s to be T3. Matti Schmid and Joel Dahmen also shot 8-under 64 at the Nicklaus Tournament Course.

Joining Taylor and Young at 7-under in a tie for eighth come Sepp Straka, Mark Hubbard, Harry Higgs and Alejandro Tosti from Nicklaus Tournament and Michael Thorbjornsen, Charley Hoffman and Rico Hoey from La Quinta Country Club.

The reset odds after the opening round via FanDuel sit as follows:

• +700: J.T. Poston (-10 NT, first)
• +1200: Nick Taylor (-7 SC, T8)
• +1600: Jackson Suber (-7 SC, T8); J.J. Spaun (-8 LQ, T3)
• +1800: Jason Day (-8 LQ, T3); Justin Thomas (-5 LQ, T28)
• +2000: Justin Lower (-9 LQ, second)
• +2200: Carson Young (-7 SC, T8)
• +2500: Chris Kirk (-8 LQ, T3)
• +2800: Sepp Straka (-7 NT, T8)

Draws

Pete Dye Stadium Course low scorers: Nick Taylor (+1200), Jackson Suber (+1600) and Carson Young (+2200)

As stated above the Pete Dye Stadium Course played way harder than the other two and with pin locations set for the first three rounds, this trio can feel emboldened to take aim and go low over the next two rounds. They’ll also have confidence for their return to the Stadium Course on Sunday.

Taylor is in a rich vein of form having won last week in Hawaii where his putter was red hot when it mattered. That continued in the desert Thursday where he ranked second in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Suber and Young are yet to win on TOUR but that didn’t stop Nick Dunlap a year ago. Rookie Suber was T6 to start his year at Sony last week and has yet to cool off. Young missed the cut a week ago but is starting his third TOUR season with some confidence after a runner-up in the fall in Mexico. He was T17 here a year ago.

Chris Kirk +2500

Of those yet to play the Stadium Course, the odds for Kirk intrigue me the most. He has a chance to go to Nicklaus Tournament tomorrow to go low once more and was T3 in this tournament two years ago. While Kirk let me down last week in Hawaii, the fact I’m not on him this week now worries me! While Spaun and Day have the same score on the same rotation, neither of those two have great results in prior starts here and you are getting worse odds. I’d like to think Day is priming himself for another Torrey Pines blitz in upcoming weeks while Spaun’s Sunday at the Sony Open is still on my mind. He had that tournament in his grasp only to surrender.

Cam Davis Top 20 +210

He's sitting all the way back at T65 at the moment so you might call me crazy, but Davis shot 3-under on the Stadium Course and can now go low the next two rounds if he brings his best. One bad hole, a double bogey, cost him Thursday but if he keeps his putter hot, he could easily shoot back up the leaderboard. A win seems beyond him but he was third here in 2021.

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