Ludvig Åberg will look to be a better steward of the Genesis Scottish Open lead than Justin Thomas.

Thomas paced the field Thursday with a 62 but fell back in a big way, scoring 10 shots higher in his second trip around The Renaissance Golf Club. As a result his price ballooned from +550 back up to +9000, nearly three times his pre-tournament price as he heads into the weekend six shots back.

The man he’s trailing was second on the odds board after the opening round but is now a clear outright favorite: Åberg. The Swede has now shot consecutive rounds of 6-under 64, making just two bogeys through 36 holes while building a one-shot lead over France’s Antoine Rozner. Defending champ Rory McIlroy, T5 and three shots behind Åberg, poses the biggest threat in the eyes of oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Updated odds to win Genesis Scottish Open (via BetMGM)

• +175: Ludvig Åberg
• +550: Rory McIlroy
• +1000: Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im
• +2000: Sahith Theegala
• +2200: Antoine Rozner
• +2800: Alex Noren, Rasmus Hojgaard
• +3300: Corey Conners, Robert MacIntyre, Xander Schauffele
• +4000: Matteo Manassero

The top of the board is decorated with names you know, but there’s still time for players further down the standings to make a move now that the 156-man field has been trimmed to just 74 players (with the top 18 separated by just four shots).

Here’s where I’m looking for in-play wagers at the halfway point in North Berwick, starting with a likely Presidents Cup participant who seems on the cusp of a breakthrough:

Draws

Sungjae Im (+1000)

I continue to believe that an Im win is near. After an uncharacteristically slow start to the season, Im has heated up in a big way with six top-12 finishes in his last eight starts. The other two were missed cuts in majors, so essentially he hasn’t finished worse than 12th in a non-major field since the Valspar Championship in March.

Im is once again in the mix at The Renaissance Club, heading out Saturday in the penultimate pairing as he’s T3 and two shots behind Åberg after rounds of 63-67. He’s putting well this week (16th in Strokes Gained: Putting) and continues to be strong with his irons. His second-round 67 came despite some losses to the field off the tee, and if the driver gets straightened out he’ll be in a great spot to land another mid-60s score that should position him with a great chance to win – and ensure that his overnight price dips below the current +1000 offering.

Nicolai Højgaard (+5000)

Do you realize how good the rest of your game has to be to shoot consecutive 66s while ranking near the bottom of the field on short game? That’s the recipe Højgaard has cooked up through two rounds, trailing Åberg by four shots despite sitting 137th in SG: Around the Green. His ball-striking has been stellar, top 20 in both Off-the-Tee and Approach, but his price is elevated because he has been largely a no-show since making it briefly on the leaderboard at the Masters.

Højgaard still has the same upside that netted him a spot on last year’s Ryder Cup team, and he’s the same player that finished runner-up earlier this year at Torrey Pines. A rough spring stretch may have created some value here for the Dane whose ball-striking numbers and leaderboard position don’t add up to a +5000 in-play price.

Fades

Ludvig Åberg (+175)

I’m doubling down on my Åberg fade – so prepare for him to be up by three shots and -250 heading into the final round. But the analysis I leaned on yesterday still stands, that the Swede has struggled to put four rounds together. Yes, he seems almost flawless at the halfway point – but he held a similar position at Pinehurst No. 2 (T12), was one shot off the 36-hole lead at Harbour Town (T12) and backed up a Saturday 62 with a closing 71 at the Travelers Championship (T27) in his most recent start.

Åberg has all the potential in the world, and deserves his lofty spot in the Official World Golf Rankings. But I’m willing to be a little late on him getting win No. 2 vs. coming in at this price with plenty of notables still within striking distance. If I didn’t like +650 after Round 1, I am definitely not advocating for +175 after Round 2!

Collin Morikawa (+1000)

Apologies to Rick Gehman, who backed Morikawa this week as guest on our "Golfbet Roundtable" show, but I’m still questioning the former Open champ. Morikawa has been all over the place off the tee, ranking 105th in SG: Off the Tee, and admitted after his second-round 66 that he basically got as much out of his ball-striking effort as he could have asked for. The irons have been pure as expected (third in SG: Approach) and will be good enough to keep him in the mix, but I question whether the other parts of his game will cooperate enough to deliver the much-anticipated first win of 2024.

Morikawa’s work on the greens, while improved, is still prone to some crunch-time miscues. Combine that with a wobbly driver and I’m staying away.

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