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14D AGO

Draws and Fades: Focus on chase for second place at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday

4 Min Read

Draws and Fades

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    Written by Ben Everill @BEverillGolfbet

    DUBLIN, Ohio – Don’t be fooled by Scottie Scheffler’s occasional mistake. The world No. 1 is about to make it five wins in eight starts at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday.

    Despite carding a triple-bogey seven on the ninth hole on Saturday to relinquish a healthy lead at Muirfield Village, giving the chasing pack a brief glimmer of hope, Scheffler quickly reasserted his authority.


    Scottie Scheffler makes tough triple bogey at the Memorial


    The king of the bounce back then birdied the 10th, 12th and 15th holes on the back nine to make a final-hole bogey seemingly inconsequential. In the final wash-up, Scheffler shot 1-under 71 and STILL increased his lead from three to four shots.

    Scheffler sits 10-under and is four clear of Collin Morikawa (68), Sepp Straka (68) and Adam Hadwin (72). The trio all sit 6-under and tied for second.

    Xander Schauffele (71) and Ludvig Åberg (72) are tied fifth at 4-under before a four-way tie for seventh at 3-under hosting Victor Perez (68), Sahith Theegala (69), Nick Dunlap (70) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout (74).

    Scheffler is now basically an unbackable -450 with 18 holes to play, meaning you probably should ignore the outright market all together and instead focus on the race for second place.

    Here are the latest outright odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

    • -450: Scottie Scheffler
    • +1000: Collin Morikawa
    • +1800: Sepp Straka
    • +2800: Adam Hadwin
    • +3000: Xander Schauffele
    • +4500: Ludvig Åberg
    • +12500: Rory McIlroy
    • +15000: Sahith Theegala
    • +22500: Christiaan Bezuidenhout

    Given I cannot see Scheffler relinquishing four shots to anyone, I won’t be advocating anything from this market. Stranger things have happened… this tournament alone has seen contenders withdraw before the final round… but the juice is still not worth the squeeze.

    So we need to go searching for other markets and options.

    Here are the latest Winner without Scottie Scheffler odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

    • +225: Collin Morikawa
    • +400: Sepp Straka
    • +550: Adam Hadwin
    • +600: Xander Schauffele
    • +800: Ludvig Åberg
    • +2000: Rory McIlroy

    Draws

    Collin Morikawa (+225 Winner without Scottie Scheffler)

    I should have plumped for Morikawa here yesterday given my “Best Bet” on the Golfbet Roundtable pre-tournament was on Morikawa in this market at +1000. We can head back to the well today though. If anyone has a sneaky chance to catch Scheffler surely it’s this man who played great for three days at the recent PGA Championship (T4) and was then fourth again at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He also gets to play with Scheffler in the final group, fully aware of where he stands. Fourth in SG: Approach (despite missing 10 greens in round two), fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee… Morikawa is in form.

    Adam Hadwin (+105 Top 5 finish via DraftKings and FanDuel)

    The Canadian sits tied second and has a two-shot break on the players currently tied fifth. The plus money here is tempting despite the fact that Hadwin has a lot of stress on his shoulders for the final round. He needs to maintain his position in second to ensure he moves past countryman Corey Conners in the race for Canada’s second Olympic berth. With just this week and next week before the cutoff, taking the lead to the U.S. Open would be huge for Hadwin. This will ensure he stays committed through the final round… but could also see his nerves increase. Hadwin is second in the field in SG: Approach, the metric Scheffler is using to gap the field. He’s also inside the top 30 in all other SG metrics.

    Sahith Theegala Top 5 (+350 at DraftKings and FanDuel)

    If you want to try to catch some better odds what about young gun Theegala? He sits tied seventh and is inside the top seven of all the SG metrics for the week except SG: Putting. It is on the greens where Theegala has been severely lacking, losing almost a stroke per round to the average. But he ranks 13th on TOUR this season on the greens and could potentially figure it out on Sunday. If he does, then he has the power to make the move.

    Fade

    Xander Schauffele (+600 Winner without Scheffler)

    The recent PGA Championship winner is just two shots back of second place but he’s doing it with terrible SG: Approach play (-1.273), relying on his putter to save his backside. Schauffele ranks second in SG: Putting but being here on the scene, talking with him directly, it just feels like his energy is slightly off. With the U.S. Open coming next week, I expect Schauffele to conserve some energy on Sunday, unless Scheffler makes a triple bogey on the opening hole this time around. I’m not saying he won’t push for birdies, but I am saying he might keep some mental energy in the tank.

    Senior Writer, Golfbet Follow Ben Everill on Twitter.

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