Tiger Woods vs. Rory McIlroy. The match everyone has been waiting for is nearly here.

The long-awaited TGL debut for Rory McIlroy’s Boston Common Golf comes Monday night at 6:30 p.m. ET against Tiger Woods and Jupiter Links Golf Club, who look to rebound from a drubbing two weeks ago at the hands of Los Angeles GC.

McIlroy will lead the “Ballfrogs” into battle with Adam Scott and Keegan Bradley, while Hideki Matsuyama remains on the bench. Meanwhile, Woods leads off for Jupiter Links with Kevin Kisner in the middle of the line up and Tom Kim playing his first match, while Max Homa sits.

FanDuel Sportsbook is expecting more struggles from Woods’ outfit, which lost 12-1 in their opening match, listing them at +150. Boston Common is the -188 favorite to debut with a victory.

In fact, the Boston boys are pretty much favored in any of the markets you can find – be it leading after three, six or nine holes, Back 6 (Singles) betting, hole-by-hole winners and even long drive and closest-to-the-pin specials.

The only market where Jupiter Links is given an edge is Hole 3 ("Oh Chute") Closest to the Pin, where Kim hits the tee shot against Bradley. Kim is -130 to Bradley’s -105. Through three matches, players are just 1-for-6 hitting that green in regulation. Outside that market, the Jupiter boys are underdogs everywhere you look.

Is there any reason to think the oddsmakers could be giving you an opportunity on Woods and his crew? After all, they have new blood in Kim, likely the best performer on their roster, and Boston has yet to play under the lights at the SoFi Center.

Sadly, I can’t get the 12-1 mauling out of my head. Jupiter hit just 50% of fairways in that match, with Kisner being a clear liability for his squad, and they subsequently hit just four of 15 greens (26.7%). And while Kim should bring some enthusiasm, a T65 and missed cut in his first two PGA TOUR starts this season don’t bring much form.

Over on the Boston squad, Bradley will bring the New England energy and three top 15s from his three TOUR starts this month. Bradley (No. 11), McIlroy (No. 3) and Scott (No. 21) are all high on the Official World Golf Rankings, making this a big mismatch on paper. Scott was T15 at The Sentry to start this season, while McIlroy was recently T4 at the Dubai Desert Classic. They are all former major winners.

McIlroy will be out to assert his authority on Woods from the start. He has a clear distance advantage, so much so he is -550 to hit the longest drive on Hole 1 to Woods’ +550. And while you could try to find some reason to have Woods use experience and guile in a straight match-play duel between the two, in Triples play (and with Kisner lining up behind him), it’s a serious uphill climb.

While the Jupiter Links team has form issues across the board, Scott is coming off a season he ranked 17th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Total, and Bradley is in the midst of a career resurgence, winning the BMW Championship in August.

The trend in the opening three TGL matches has been that those who win the par 3s win the match. Winning teams are 5-0-10 on the par 3s and Boston is full of flushers, while Jupiter hasn’t shown an ability to match them in this area.

Not only would I be taking Boston at the -188 to win, I’d be looking at them to take an early lead. You can get +110 for them to lead after three holes and +100 for them to lead after six holes. Boston owns the hammer from the start, and McIlroy might be smart to throw it down immediately after bombing the opening drive on the 516-yard, par-4 “Flex” if it finds the short grass. Woods will then have to find fairway and hope Kisner, from farther away, can match Scott – one of the best ball-strikers of the last few decades.

While it would be great to see a close match go down to the wire, this one smells like another bloodbath.

Benny's bets

• +110: Boston Common to lead after three holes
• +100: Boston Common to lead after six holes
• -130: Boston Common to lead after nine holes
• -188: Boston Common to win the match

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