Ludvig Åberg on track, but look for Round 2 North Course challengers at Farmers Insurance Open

Betting favorite Ludvig Åberg threw down a Torrey Pines gauntlet at the Farmers Insurance Open via a statement making 9-under 63 on the North Course but others still have the chance to match him in Thursday’s second round.

Åberg looked every bit the pre-tournament pick from oddsmakers as he birdied the opening three holes of his assault before adding five more and an eagle against just one bogey.

Having opened at +1000 the Swede is already into an incredible +175 with 54 holes on the tougher South Course to come. And while he certainly looks a winner in waiting after setting up a two-shot buffer, the chasers, particularly those who opened on the South Course Wednesday, can still make up ground.

While Åberg took apart the North, which had a score average of 70.218, the South played over par at 72.487, a much harder prospect. As such, rookie Danny Walker’s 7-under 65 and Hideki Matsuyama’s 68 on the South were decent efforts of their own and should have Åberg fans just a little wary of putting the champagne on ice just yet.

Of the top 28 players on the leaderboard, only eight played the South Course. They, and others, get the chance to attack on Thursday.

Walker’s 65 on the South was the lead score on the tougher track, with K.H. Lee (67), Lee Hodges (67), Cristobal Del Solar (68), Chan Kim (68), Matsuyama (68), Jackson Koivun (68), Norman Xiong (68), Mac Meissner (69), Sam Stevens (69) and Sungjae Im (69) the only other scores in the 60s on the South.

On the North, Hayden Springer sat two back after a 65 while Lanto Griffin, Aldrich Potgieter, Zac Blair and Zach Johnson all shot 66 to be T4. Eight others shot 67 on the North Course.

Already there is a significant spread in the outright odds at FanDuel Sportsbook with Åberg the only North Course player high up on the board. It looks as follows:

• +175: Ludvig Åberg (-9, North, first)
• +600: Hideki Matsuyama (-4, South, T18)
• +1400: Sungjae Im (-3, South, T29)
• +1800: Danny Walker (-7, South, T2)
• +2200: Lee Hodges (-5, South, T8)
• +3500: Kurt Kitayama (-2, South, T49)

So the question becomes which players are worth looking at as they head to the North. It is one thing to know you need to go low, but another thing to do it. And are any of the other North players, who look to go with Åberg to the South for three rounds in a row, a threat and huge odds?

Personally, since I went with the chalk favorite Åberg at the start of the week, I wouldn’t look elsewhere. By the same token, I wouldn’t jump on the Swede at these new odds either until we see how he tackles the South.

But here are some reasons you might want to consider a few others.

Hideki Matsuyama (+600) – Frankly the odds are not juicy enough to feel extremely comfortable jumping on the recent winner at The Sentry. He’s given up five shots to Åberg who might slow in the second round but won’t likely fall off a cliff. It’s good to know Matsuyama’s scoring average on the North in his last six attempts is a reasonable 67.33 because you would think a 67 would be his minimum target if he is to keep pace. If anyone is to run with him, it would be the Japanese star. Has four results in the top 13 at Torrey Pines in the last seven years.

Sungjae Im (+1400) – He may have missed the cut at Torrey Pines last season but Im was T6 and T4 in 2022 and 2023. While Matsuyama tore up Kapalua earlier this month, Im wasn’t far behind on his way to a third-place finish. He knows how to go low and will certainly need a very special round on the North to be a true contender.

Outside of these two established stars I’d already be looking at the finishing position markets.

And while Jason Day (+2, South) has been known to fightback from slow starts at Torrey South, it’s actually his counterpart Aaron Baddeley who could hang on for a Top 20 at big odds.

Baddeley is +650 to hold on to a top 20 finish having opened with a 67 on the North to be T8 through 18 holes. This is the Australians 20th attempt at the Farmers Insurance Open where he has four prior top 20s, two of them top 10s when he was in contention. It’s certainly not a sure-fire bet but Torrey Pines has always been kind to the Aussies and Sunday is after all, Australia Day.

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