Jan 13, 2025

Odds Outlook: Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im lead The American Express odds boards

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Written by Mike Glasscott

Editor's Note: Xander Schauffele withdrew from The American Express on Monday, Jan. 13.

The West Coast Swing welcomes the PGA TOUR to the California desert for the 66th playing of The American Express, the first of three consecutive events with multiple courses in use.

With the early week withdrawal of Xander Schauffele, it is Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im both at +1200 who reside at the top of the board at the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Returning to the Coachella Valley in 2024 for the first time since T7 in 2015, two-time PGA Championship winner Thomas (+1200) matched the Pete Dye Stadium Course (host course) record of 61 in Round 3. Posting four rounds of 68 or better, he shared third with Schauffele on 27-under, a score that would have won seven of the last eight tournaments in this three-course rotation. Thomas needed two rounds to get the kinks out at Kapalua before unleashing 68 on Saturday and 63, the round of the day on Sunday, to close for T26.

Never missing the 54-hole cut in six previous visits, Sungjae Im (+1200) knows the way around the La Quinta area. Not one of the longer hitters, the Korean moseys into town on the back of a T9 payday in The Bahamas at the Hero World Challenge and a solo third two weeks ago on Maui. Closing at Kapalua with 65-62, he matched winner Hideki Matsuyama (not entered) for the low-36-hole total of the weekend. Circling 31 birdies against only four bogeys, another shootout on the other three easiest courses on TOUR should be right up his alley.

Since becoming a father in May 2024, Sam Burns (+1400) has racked up nine paydays of T15 or better from 11 events after missing the cut at the PGA Championship. The five-time TOUR winner posted 61 on the Nicklaus Tournament Course in Round 2 in 2024 and led the event on 17-under after 36 holes. On Sunday, he ran his total to 29-under after 14 holes but went double bogey-double bogey on the 71st and 72nd holes to drop to T6. Solid throughout the bag, the five-time winner led the TOUR in Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage last year, a key metric in a three-course shootout!

Californian Patrick Cantlay (+1800) was the first player to set the Pete Dye Stadium Course record at PGA WEST when he posted 61 in the final round of the 2021 tournament to finish second. Over the last two editions, he’s posted 15-under and 18-under and did not cash a top-25 payday. With resort-course fairways, rough (or lack thereof) and putting surfaces, the average winning total in this birdie fest is slightly better than 25-under over the previous four years. The 32-year-old is looking for his first victory since winning a shootout in the 2022 BMW Championship.

With three courses tipping less than 7,200 yards, it’s hardly a surprise that big-hitting Tony Finau (+2200) is the sixth player with odds better than +3000. The Utah native completed the 2024 season ranked second in Strokes Gained: Approach, third in Par 5 Scoring and fourth in SG: Tee to Green. The cut, a record-setting 13-under in 2024, reminds the six-time winner that the star of his bag this week will need to be a slightly warm putter.

The 2024 winner Nick Dunlap (+5000) joins the field of 156 players and returns to defend the title he won as a 20-year-old amateur last January. The 2023 U.S. Amateur champion blistered La Quinta Country Club for 60 in the third round and was the leader after 54 holes. Returning to the Stadium Course on Sunday playing with Thomas and Burns in the final group, the sponsor exemption held off Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+8000) to win by a shot. The University of Alabama sophomore became the second youngest winner on TOUR since 19-year-old Jordan Spieth won the 2013 John Deere Classic.


Nick Dunlap recounts his winning putt at The American Express
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      Nick Dunlap recounts his winning putt at The American Express



      The Sony Open in Hawaii concluded thrillingly on Sunday with Nick Taylor (+7000) holing out for an eagle on the final hole of regulation to force a playoff. The Canadian knocked off Nico Echavarria (+6000) with a birdie on the second extra hole to win for the fifth time on TOUR. Both players are teeing it up in the desert.

      Here's a look at some of the odds for the rest of the field:

      • +3000: Tom Kim
      • +3300: Wyndham Clark
      • +3500: 2021 winner Si Woo Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Max Greyserman
      • +4000: Harry Hall, Cameron Young
      • +4500: Davis Thompson
      • +5000: J.J. Spaun
      • +5500: Will Zalatoris, Brian Harman, Patrick Fishburn, Eric Cole
      • +6000: Tom Hoge, J.T. Poston, Ben Griffin, Denny McCarthy
      • +6500: Sepp Straka
      • +7500: Jason Day, Cam Davis, Keith Mitchell, Adam Hadwin,
      • +8000: Daniel Berger, Michael Thorbjornsen, Mac Meissner, Lee Hodges, 2011 winner Jhonattan Vegas, Beau Hossler, Andrew Novak
      • +9000: Kevin Yu, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Patrick Rodgers

      For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

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