Prop Farm: Plenty of bets on U.S. Team, but look for Si Woo Kim to lead Internationals
4 Min Read
Written by Brady Kannon
For the 15th time, the U.S. and International Teams will battle on the course to see who leaves Canada with the Presidents Cup.
The Royal Montreal Golf Club will serve as the venue where countryman Mike Weir, an eight-time PGA TOUR winner and major champion, will captain the 12-man International Team. Fellow major champion Jim Furyk captains the United States side. The U.S. has been dominant in the past, winning the last nine competitions in a row for an overall record of 12-1-1 over the Internationals.
The U.S. Team is a good-sized favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook to make it 10 in a row. They are listed at -250, with the International side at +260 and a +1400 price for the event to end in a tie.
Drew O’Dell, senior data analyst at BetMGM, illustrated the betting splits. “fifty-six percent of the bets are on the U.S and they account for 86% of the handle,” O’Dell said. “Only 12% of the handle is on the International side and 29% of the bets. A tie is getting 15% of the bets and just 2% of the handle.”
Thirty matches will be played in total at the Presidents Cup with a mixture of Foursomes (alternate shot) and Four-ball (best ball) over the first three days, and Singles matches on Sunday with all 12 players from each side participating.
From the Race and Sportsbook at The Borgata in New Jersey, director Thomas Gable told me what he’s been seeing come across at his window. “Typically, in these team events whether it’s this one or the Ryder Cup, the U.S. is always bet and we will need the International side.” Gable said.
He did express, however, a market in which he is seeing International Team support. “We are also offering a handicap market with the U.S. laying -3.5 points at -110 odds,” Gable said. “That’s the market where we have gotten some International money taking the +3.5 points.”
A native Canadian and golf betting expert, Cam Stewart likes taking the “home” team plus the points. “I want to hit it from both sides,” said Stewart. “I think the United States has more depth but the Internationals can feed off the rabid sports fans in Montreal. I believe the U.S. will win in a tight one.”
Stewart played the U.S. to win by anywhere from 1-to-3 points and also played the Internationals +3.5 points. “If USA wins by 1, 2 or 3 points, we win both bets.”
Personally, I played into a similar market as Stewart, betting the U.S. to win by anywhere from 4-6 points.
I believe some of the most fun wagers to place in these team events are the "Top Scorer" markets and which golfers will score the most points over the four days for their respective teams. Part of the handicap here is also figuring out which player(s) will be given enough opportunity to accumulate points. One does not want to find themselves landing on a player who is not given a whole lot of playing time by their captain. One would have to believe that the best player in the world, Scottie Scheffler, will see quite a bit of action and that U.S. Captain Jim Furyk will have Scheffler penciled into the lineup early and often.
“For the top U.S. point scorer, Scheffler at +400 has the shortest price but of course, he is attracting the most action. We’ve had some bites on Keegan Bradley at +2000 in that market as well,” said Gable.
O’Dell reports the top five players in this market, as far as ticket count at BetMGM, are Scheffler at No. 1, followed by Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa, and Max Homa in that order.
“Hideki Matsuyama leads the way in ticket count for the Internationals,” O’Dell added. “Also in order, he is followed by Sungjae Im, Taylor Pendrith, Adam Scott, and Corey Conners.”
I am only seeing one name that I played not pop up here, and oftentimes that is a good thing. I played Si Woo Kim to be the top International Team scorer. This will be Kim’s third Presidents Cup and he’s had good success in the past, amassing a record of 4-3 overall. I am leaning on Driving Accuracy, Strokes Gained: Approach and Scrambling this week as the skill sets of primary importance. Kim ranks 13th on TOUR in Driving Accuracy, is 18th for SG: Approach, and ranks 22nd in Scrambling.
I also landed on Pendrith in this market. It’s been his best season ever and he’s played especially well the past couple of months. I believe he could emerge as the local Canadian hero this week. As for the U.S. Team top scorer, I played Morikawa and Burns.
It is worth noting, that when I asked Gable about the action he is seeing on the Presidents Cup, if it was sharp or more casual, his response was, “pretty much all recreational.” It seems the sharp money might be waiting to make its move closer to game time up in Montreal.
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