Prop Farm: Sharps backing Collin Morikawa to snag gold medal in Paris
6 Min Read
With the Olympic men’s golf competition being a tournament we have only seen twice in our lifetimes, and one that only occurs every four years, things are certainly different from our weekly routine on the PGA TOUR. We are still going to get some insights from some of our favorite bookmakers in Las Vegas and beyond, but as far as the typical Prop Farm that we plow through on a week-to-week basis here in this space, let's call this week's scaled-down version simply a Farmer’s Market.
On sale this week are fresh opinions in both the outright market and the head-to-head matchups department from myself and from our counterparts on the other side of the betting window.
Personally, I stayed away from the very top of the board where Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy reside. I noted above that this week is different. It feels a bit more like a Ryder Cup to me than a major championship or Signature Event on TOUR. Certainly there is more of an international, global flavor. With Scheffler having six wins to his credit this season, including a major and Schauffele already owning a gold medal, plus two recent major championships, I wonder how this competition sits with their typical pregame routines and motivational triggers.
For the rest of the world that doesn't have a major championship to their credit, or at least has missed out on one this season, Olympic gold feels like an awfully large next-best-thing or even an incredibly special parallel.
For these reasons, I went with Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Shane Lowry and Corey Conners to win gold. Morikawa has been oh-so-close so many times this season. He has been the one nipping at the heels of Scheffler and Schauffele seemingly every event. He has been vocal about how he wants to return to that arena that saw him win two majors in two seasons in 2020 and 2021. This could be a perfect big-time win for him as this season winds down, and he also happens to be an excellent fit for this golf course.
Highly regarded Las Vegas golf oddsmaker, Jeff Sherman noted, "We've had strong public support for Scheffler but sharp action on Morikawa." When I asked him who he liked personally, Sherman told me it was a lighter-than-normal week for him but that he played Rahm and Alex Noren to win it.
I believe some of the Morikawa analysis also applies to Rahm. He really struggled in the major championships this season until finishing seventh at The Open two weeks ago. I believe he feels like he has something to prove. He finished 10th here in 2017 at the FedEx Open de France, fifth at the same tournament in 2018, and beat Tiger Woods in singles at the Ryder Cup in 2018 at Le Golf National. Noren, by the way, has had tremendous success at this course too, winning the Open de France in 2018, along with three additional top-20 finishes, and a 2-1 record in that 2018 Ryder Cup.
"I like Shane Lowry," said Thomas Gable, director of race and sports at The Borgata in New Jersey. "He seems to be really primed for the Olympics and I feel he is worth a bet at +2400 or better.”
I agree with Gable. Lowry was a flag bearer for Ireland at last week's opening ceremonies. He has said, genuinely, how much this means to him. How can you not believe him? He seems to be one of the most prideful countrymen in the field. Lowry was the 36-hole leader at Royal Troon two weeks ago. He has to feel that he let that one slip away, and a gold medal is probably quite high on his list of how to reconcile that near-miss in Scotland.
Hall of Fame bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich told me he is not playing anything personally this week but he has seen a great deal of support for two players. "Tommy Fleetwood and Joaquin Niemann have been getting really strong action to win it all."
Like Noren, Fleetwood is a former FedEx Open de France champion in 2017. He also lit it up as a Ryder Cup rookie in 2018, going 4-1 in his matches in what resulted in an eventual European team victory that year.
Speaking of Hall of Fame bookmakers in Las Vegas, I checked in with my friend Vinny Magliulo to get some of his thoughts. "From a patriotic standpoint, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele can't be ignored given their current form."
Interestingly enough, down the street at Mandalay Bay, senior manager Tristan Davis was singing a familiar tune. "Both Scottie (+400) and Xander (+550) are playing so well this year and with it being the Olympics, the U.S. is going to dominate betting regardless. (There’s) a smaller amount of support for Morikawa but the spotlight for us is clearly on the top two in the market."
Magliulo went a different direction however, when he came to where his own money was headed. "In looking at prices, I'll consider Victor Perez (+8000) of France with some ‘home cooking’ and I like Tom Kim of South Korea, too."
When I asked Davis who he liked personally this week, "I would be having something on Niemann, Sepp Straka and Abraham Ancer."
The Australia native liked a few matchups too, one of which had him picking a side between his fellow countrymen. "I like Ancer to beat Carlos Ortiz, Min Woo lee to beat Jason Day, and Thorbjorn Olesen to beat Ryan Fox," added Davis.
I did not hear much mention of my Conners choice, nor did I on Thomas Detry, representing Belgium. Detry has played as many competitive rounds on this golf course as anyone in this week's field. I took a stab with the former full-time DP World Tour member who we now see regularly on the PGA TOUR.
He's played 18 rounds at Le Golf National, competing in the Open de France. He's made the cut in four out of five tries and has finishes of 25-16-8-35.
Detry's wheelhouse is the par 4s and hole proximity, and he can really putt, ranking eighth on TOUR in SG: Putting. I like the current form as well. Beginning with the PGA Championship, where he finished fourth, he hasn't missed a cut in his last six starts, including a 14th-place finish at the U.S. Open.
Hopefully you found a few items that suit your fancy today at the Farmers Market. Enjoy the Olympic golf. We'll be back with another spread in Los Angeles in 2028.
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