Prop Farm: Bettors, oddsmakers handicapping motivating factors ahead of 3M Open
5 Min Read
Written by Brady Kannon
While the Open Championship served as the final major championship of the 2024 season and crowned Xander Schauffele as the Champion Golfer of the Year, we are only roughly a month away from having a FedExCup Champion.
The 3M Open, taking place at TPC Twin Cities this week in Blaine, Minnesota, is the penultimate regular season tournament before the FedExCup playoffs begin. Only the top 70 players in FedExCup points will qualify for the postseason. The 3M Open and the Wyndham Championship will be the last two events at which players can accumulate points to earn their way in - or possibly even drop in the rankings and find their way on the outside looking in.
While the stakes are very high at this stage in the game for the players, bettors may be taking a lighter approach than at The Open. Multiple oddsmakers reported slower action than a week ago, although some names like Akshay Bhatia are getting some interest among recreational players.
Interesting to note that we find more of the same at BetMGM Sportsbooks. Data Analyst John Ewing pointed out that "Akshay Bhatia is No. 1 in ticket count percentage (11.03%), handle (11.46%), and is our biggest liability this week."

Golfbet Roundtable: Picks and Predictions for the 3M Open
Ewing went on to add that last week's 54-hole leader at The Open, Billy Horschel, is getting a lot of attention. "Horschel ranks third-highest in ticket count percentage (8.24%) and handle (9.07%). He's our second biggest liability."
Davis re-entered the conversation. "Another case of the punters getting involved in players who performed well the week before. Billy Horschel has been our best backed player with the most in handle. Punters are licking their lips at the +2500 for Billy…this week. Cam Davis is another player who has some fans at +3300 along with Akshay Bhatia at +2000. Nothing sharp here, though."
In a battle of the bettors, Nick Bogdanovich notes action going against Horschel. "They're betting Horschel on the 'NO' for a top-10 finish. Somebody must think he will be flat off of last week."
I tend to agree. Horschel was in a position he'd never been in before in a major championship. He played admirably on Sunday. I don't feel like anyone "lost" The Open - rather, Schauffele went out and won it. But sleeping on that lead overnight and imagining what would be a forever life-changing victory. The stress, the possibilities, the grind of trying to execute it all on Sunday. The entire package has to be physically and mentally exhausting and that has me not trusting that Horschel will simply pick up where he left off this week in Minnesota.
It is this time of the year when another possible angle enters the handicap and that is motivation. You have a number of players in the field this week who are on the bubble - players that are either just barely inside or outside of the top 70 in FedExCup points. There are also players who are borderline top-50, which earns a spot into the BMW Championship, and finally those players that are close to or inside the top 30, which qualifies for the grand finale, the TOUR Championship and ultimately a shot at the FedExCup.
The Presidents Cup will take place this fall in Montreal. There are also players in this field trying to impress the captains or earn their way onto these teams via the points rankings.
It can be a slippery slope, banking on players to be "motivated" when handicapping any sport. It is not quantifiable but personally, I do believe there is some sort of awareness or focus for these players that have a lot on the line. Sometimes that can be a positive and sometimes players will succumb to the pressure.
Again, it is a part of the handicap but not one that I will go all-in on.
Bogdanovich mentioned three players he is seeing take some action in the outright market. "Luke Clanton, J.T. Poston, and Nick Dunlap are getting a little bit of action to win it."
Sherman saw activity on a winner earlier this season. "Austin Eckroat is getting some sharp support."
We can't be sure on why these plays are being made exactly but Eckroat sits at 48th in the FedExCup standings currently - just two spots inside the top 50. He'll need to maintain his good play - and improve upon that if he wants to make it to the final 30. Dunlap, a winner last week at the Barracuda Championship, is currently sitting 64th on the points list. Again, uncomfortably close to falling out off the top-70 and needing to step on it if he wants to still be playing in late August.
Poston is currently 34th in the standings. A great spot to be in and will only need to advance by a few more points to get to East Lake Golf Club and the TOUR Championship - reserved for the season's final top 30.
I did not land on any of these players this week for an outright win but I did play Canadian Adam Hadwin (+4000) who has a couple of motivational angles behind him. He is currently 37th in the FedExCup standings - so like Poston, a good spot that could use a small boost over the next few weeks. Hadwin is also currently 11th in the Presidents Cup standings for the International side. It feels like the Canadian players would like nothing more than to play in their home country for fellow Canadian, Team Captain Mike Weir. Again, it is hard to bet on players "flipping a switch" to suddenly perform better but Hadwin's game has been very strong all year and I believe he can build upon that this week. He has finished sixth and fourth here at this event in the past.
I also landed on Tom Hoge (+3000), Chan Kim (+6000), and Matt Wallace (+6600) for an outright win this week. Certainly some different forms of motivation may exist for each of these players depending on their FedExCup points status among other things, but the large majority of my handicap was based on everything else - all of the normal processes we employ week-to-week with only a small nod to what a player might also have going on otherwise.
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