Bet with your head, not your heart, is a saying that bettors rely upon often in the world of sports.

Study the data. Crunch the numbers.

Yet how often do you throw something behind your favorite NFL or college football team? Or ride your alma mater in March Madness pools? Sometimes, you just have to bet on emotion. And as long as you do so in moderation, it can be part of the fun of sports.

As a veteran sportswriter I can tell you that the media center this week at The Open will be betting on the best “story." That’s their version of betting with their hearts. They want to tell you all the best tale and get caught up in the beauty of the narrative.

And here we are at the season's last major championship. Our last chance to pick the winner of a major until next April’s Masters. What are some of the good “heart” picks out there? And what “head” info warns you not to? And in betting favorite Scottie Scheffler’s case… how does the opposite apply?

Let's take a look at some of the notables in the field this week at Royal Troon for whom head and heart might be pulling in opposite directions on the eve of the opening round:

Rory McIlroy +800

Head says: There is obvious scar tissue there. Not just from the last major – which was demoralizing – but from a decade of near-misses. The harder you chase something, the worse you can often play. McIlroy has promised so much, so many times leading into majors over the last 10 years but has ALWAYS fallen short. Why would you assume this will be any different? Isn’t that the definition of insanity?

Heart says: Don’t you want the suffering to be over? It is now a decade since McIlroy won his last major championship and he’s had 21 top-10s since, including the heart-breaking loss at the most recent championship, the U.S. Open. McIlroy missed two short putts down the stretch to miss out but what better revenge than winning his home major in front of his adoring fans. Nothing worse than T15 in last seven starts including two wins, was T4 and trending last week and has seven top-10s in the Open including a win in 2014 and a fifth at Royal Troon in 2016. Ranked inside top-11 for GIR in the last two Open’s.

Scottie Scheffler +550

Head says: It’s easier to list stats he’s not leading than to rattle off the ones he is leading in this season. But the most relevant this week is the fact he sits first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at +2.723, more than a stroke ahead of second place (McIlroy +1.621). He also leads in SG: Approach at +1.485, over half a stroke a round ahead of Tom Hoge in second at +0.911. He is the best ball striker on the planet and this is a ball strikers’ course.

Heart says: Scheffler’s not shown his true strengths in links golf to this point, basically not contending at The Open short of some peripheral head-popping up at St Andrews in 2022. Yes, he was T8 in 2021 but never really in the hunt and last year at Hoylake he was out of it after a second-round 75. Only a final-round 67 moved him inside the top 25. In my opinion, I’m also not convinced he will handle the variable weather if it produces some “annoying” breaks that get in his head. Finally, these odds are just too short!

Ludvig Åberg +1400

Head says: Åberg’s fall on Sunday at the Genesis Scottish Open is just another example of him struggling to close out when the pressure ramps up. He couldn’t take it to another level at the Masters, he relinquished control at the U.S. Open when in the catbird seat with a rookie error and last Sunday he faltered again despite a big lead through three days. He’s a star, but he’s not ready to join the top level yet.

Heart says: We love a new phenom and nothing says phenom more than a major championship win in your first attempt. We’ve already seen Åberg contend at the Masters on major debut and at the recent U.S. Open… now he can try to become just the 11th player to win the Open in their first try. The last winner at Royal Troon was also a Swede. Ranks eighth on TOUR in SG: Approach and 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Robert MacIntyre +3300

Head says: Winning back-to-back weeks at any stage is a tough prospect, but even tougher when one of the tournaments is a major. While Phil Mickelson was able to produce this double in 2013, expecting MacIntyre to do the same is a huge ask… especially when you remember the last party mentioned above. Has he recovered yet?!

Heart says: What could be better than a local Scot winning the Genesis Scottish Open? Winning the Genesis Scottish Open and The Open in back-to-back weeks in your home country, that’s what! If you think his party after winning the RBC Canadian Open was big, imagine what he’d do with the claret jug! Winning form is great form. MacIntyre has gone to another level this season with two wins, including last week, and he was also in the mix at the PGA Championship when it was supposed to be bombers only.

Viktor Hovland +3300

Heart says: The FedExCup champion has shown glimpses of a turnaround and we can still cling on to his T4 efforts at St Andrews a few years ago as proof he’s got this. Has been inside the top 15 in all his prior Open starts. We are due a first-time major winner and another first time Open Championship winner, and the former smiling assassin fits both molds.

Head says: He is a shell of his former self from 2023. Outside of his third-place finish at the PGA Championship, he hasn’t really bruised a grape this season. We’ve even seen rounds over 80. Any bet on Hovland is on past deeds and nothing to do with recent times.

Tiger Woods +20000

Heart says: Can you even imagine? After all Woods has been through, a 16th major championship would break the sporting world and melt the internet. His beaten-up body would need to find energy from new sources but if anyone can out-think links golf, it would be Woods. Surely, he has one more in him …

Head says: He is absolutely NO CHANCE of contending and would flat out do well making the cut, let alone winning. Woods hasn’t been able to muster four rounds of note in a couple years at this point. But who cares! Go Tiger!

If I had to pick just one… Åberg for me.

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