Benny and The Bets: Bet your instincts at Colonial … or the opposite?

When all was said and done at Valhalla last week, I couldn’t help but play an old Seinfeld episode in my head on repeat.

While I was personally thrilled for Xander Schauffele to pick up his first major victory at the PGA Championship, it came after I had faded him all week. My instinct had failed me. In fact, my instinct had been to pick him for multiple tournaments so far this season, only to see him finish short. And when I could have stuck solid, I bailed.

Not to mention the two players I backed on Saturday night – Collin Morikawa and Sahith Theegala – were the biggest no-shows on Sunday. Contrary to what it seems sometimes, I am working very hard trying to give the loyal Golfbet readers great selections to make some money.

And so – it was the classic Seinfeld episode called, “The Opposite,” that started to froth up in my mind. Long story short, George Costanza is struggling in life and comes up with a way to counter things.

George: “It became very clear to me sitting out there today, that every decision I've ever made, in my entire life, has been wrong. My life is the complete opposite of everything I want it to be. Every instinct I have, in every aspect of life, be it something to wear, something to eat ... It's all been wrong.”

And so George decides to do something about it.

Jerry: “If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.”

George: “Yes, I will do the opposite. I used to sit here and do nothing, and regret it for the rest of the day, so now I will do the opposite, and I will do something!”

It kickstarts a huge shift in his life, from dating wonderful women, to getting a great job with the New York Yankees… it turns out the opposite from his instincts was the key to it all.

And it is with this in mind I am going to give you – the reader – both my instincts for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge and then an opposite pick as well so you can decide which side of the jinx I am!

Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, has undergone a renovation since Emiliano Grillo won last year, but it is still the same nuts and bolts. In fact, the place has returned to as close to its original beauty as possible.

Last week was about the bombers. Not the case this week. The work begins from the greens backwards.

While the greens are new, we still expect putting to be a crucial piece of the puzzle. Eight of the last nine winners were inside the top seven of Strokes Gained: Putting for the week. The last six winners have also been in the top-12 of SG: Approach, two of them leading the field.

Chalk thoughts

We can’t talk the Charles Schwab Challenge without going down the Scottie Scheffler rabbit hole.

Instinct: As the +275 favorite my instinct is to say Scheffler is at almost unbackable odds. Yes, he has a great chance to win, but these numbers are just not smart to jump on. If last week’s PGA Championship showed us anything it is that ANYTHING can happen in the course of a golf tournament. While I am certainly not expecting Scheffler to be arrested again this week, there are still many variables. For instance, he is slated for the late/early tee times and word is winds might whip up on Thursday afternoon. He also is still coming to terms with life as a new dad. So if you must play Scheffler, at least wait till before his tee time as you might get some juice if someone in the morning wave sets a strong pace. If the weather forecast does pan out with afternoon winds, perhaps wait until after the opening round.

Opposite: Don’t wait. Just bet Scheffler. He’s going to win. He has gone close at Colonial before, including last year where he was near last in SG: Putting and still finished T3, just one shot out of a playoff. He is playing ridiculous golf with his only blemish last week being a third-round 73 coming after the somewhat predictable adrenaline dump following his insane Friday. He loves playing at home and will want to get the focus back on his golf as soon as possible.

Next to discuss is Collin Morikawa who is second on the betting boards at BetMGM Sportsbook at +1200.

Instinct: Morikawa has been on an upward trend this season and for the first three rounds at Valhalla looked very, very good. In my mind, was on his way to a win. But on Sunday he turned out to be the biggest disappointment among the contenders. The two-time major winner looked like the nervous one, and his even-par 71 was worse than the field average of 69.256. In contrast to winner Xander Schauffele’s 65, he was lapped. Also of concern was his rank of 58th in SG: Putting, losing -0.763 strokes on the greens. This all leads me to think he might be in for a mental letdown this week, and I see at least one round off the pace as well as some concerns on the greens. Holster him until the Memorial Tournament.

Opposite: Much like Schauffele rebounded from a rough Sunday at Wells Fargo Championship to take the PGA Championship, Morikawa is primed to shake off the one poor round and revert back to the better golf he has been playing. He can flush one bad day and use the momentum of the other three. He’s also a previous runner-up at Colonial.

Outrights

Instinct: When it comes to outright choices this week, I’ve put a heavy lean towards players who were in the mix at the PGA Championship without really feeling the furnace of Sunday pressure. Knowing the upcoming schedule of big week after big week I feel a little bit of freshness heading to Colonial, while still being in great form, is where the sweet spot lies. With that in mind I’m looking at the likes of Tony Finau (+2800), Max Homa (+2200) and thanks to a nudge from Golfbet’s Will Gray, Harris English (+3300). Finau and English ended up T18 at Valhalla while was T35. Not brilliant, but not terrible either. Finau has four top-25s at Colonial in the last five years and was ranked first at the PGA in SG: Approach. English was third in SG: Putting last week and a respectable 25th in SG: Approach while Homa was 25th in the same metric and had a top-10 last year at Colonial.

Opposite: This is not a week for the players at the top of the board at all because they’re coming off a huge week and they know they have a three-week stretch of Signature Event, major, Signature Event coming shortly. This is where they may ease back and it will be the longshots with more to gain who will surge to the top, similar to when Stephan Jaeger won the Texas Children’s Houston Open. That brings into play the likes of Billy Horschel (+5000), Austin Eckroat (+5500), Thomas Detry (+5500), Justin Rose (+6000) and Ben Kohles (+25000).

Place markets

Instinct: This is the place to play the above longer shots who could easily leverage PGA form into Colonial efforts. Detry (+400 for top-10), Rose (+400 Top-10) and Horschel (+375 Top-10) were all surprise top-10 finishers at Valhalla but it would be less of a surprise to see them continue on said form. All three were high up in SG: Putting and Approach ranks, form that should translate well to this week. Kohles (+550 Top 20, +175 Top-40) was ninth in SG: Putting and should have been a TOUR winner just a few weeks ago.

Opposite: Forget form from last week – or at least weight it less on the scale – and instead focus on course history. This has been a predictable course for certain players before, and it will be again, despite the renovation. As such you need to factor in former winner and three-time runner up Jordan Spieth (+400 Top 5), and his Texas mate Scheffler (-175 Top 5) who has only had three players in the last two years here beat him. Daniel Berger (+275 Top 20) was the 2020 champ who backed it up with two more top-25s.

Whichever way you lean, with my instinct or the opposite, I wish you well this week. If the opposites come good – well, you know how I’ll be rolling the rest of the season!

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