November 09, 2018
By Matthew & Will Courchene, PGATOUR.COM
Cameron Champ birdies No. 8 at Mayakoba
Through 36 holes at the Mayakoba Golf Classic, Matt Kuchar is at 14 under par and leads by two strokes over Cameron Champ. Here are the top-10 win probabilities according to our live predictive model:
Kuchar is the 9th-best player in this field by our estimates, while Champ is just the 21st. Kuchar may see some challenges over the weekend from Rickie Fowler and Tony Finau, the first and second rated golfers in this field respectively, who both currently sit 6 strokes back.
Cameron Champ appears to be a rising star in the professional game. In this young PGA TOUR season he already has a victory to his name and sits inside the top 10 of the FedExCup standings. However, the lofty expectations should likely be tempered: shown below is Champ’s adjusted Strokes Gained in each of his starts as a professional:
The black line indicates the 10-event moving average. Since the midpoint of the 2018 season, Champ has been performing at a level about 0.5 to 1 strokes better than the average PGA TOUR professional (indicated by 0 in the graph above). For reference, a top-5 golfer typically averages 2 strokes per round better than the average professional. Champ is certainly on the right track, but he has a long way to go before joining golf’s elite.
NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Mayakoba Golf Classic, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.