Pick 'Em Preview: The Open Championship

All right, you know the drill. We did this last week.

The Open Championship at St. Andrews is just 12 miles due north of The Renaissance Club, so, yes, it’s in the same time zone. This means that the tournament begins at 1:35 a.m. ET on Thursday in the United States. That’s 10:35 p.m. on Wednesday on the West Coast.

That’s the given, but what we don’t know is if PointsBet will open a market for the Top 20 bet during the tournament. It was not made available after both R2 and R3 at the Genesis Scottish Open. Plan accordingly.

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TOURNAMENT

Rob … Joohyung Kim (+15000)

Wrestled back the honor with a 24th-place finish at the Genesis Scottish Open. It’s my seventh top 30 in PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live. Not too shabby given, as predicted in this space last week, I wouldn’t be awake in time to adjust my (failed) bets for R1 and R2 leader.

This week presents a rare challenge. St. Andrews is going to crown a big, big name as its champion. It’s the 150th edition and, well, that’s just how these things tend to develop. However, as much as I’d like to just sit on Rory McIlroy (+1000) or Jon Rahm (+1600) deep into Sunday, we have a game to play!

It ain’t broke, so I ain’t gonna break it. The Tank Engine is the reason why I finished 24th last week. He talked about how much he enjoyed his foray at links-style golf. His solo third was evidence. At 20, he’s probably young enough not to have the fully formed feel of the significance of what a victory here and now represents, and I like it like that for the purpose of this opening selection.

Glass … Kevin Kisner (+20000)

Did you think I was going to trot Rory out here at +1000?

Kisner was an afterthought at Carnoustie in 2018 before finishing T2. Earlier that season, he finished second at the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play. Wanna guess how he finished at Match Play this year?

Kisner paints fairways, and the firm and fast should help shorten the yardage book. Grinder mentality evident with five straight paydays at this event. Reminds me a bit of Zach Johnson in 2015, plus Kisner has a comfortable pairing with Chris Kirk for the first two days.

Plenty of time to reload if this longshot doesn't fire. Last week's winner hopped on Xander Schauffele at +8000 after Round 1. It can happen!

TOP 10

Rob … Joohyung Kim (+1000)

Reset and repeat.

He was +2000 for this finish last week and delivered. Always room on the bandwagon for ya, especially since Glass refuses to take a seat.

Glass … Thomas Pieters (+750)

Rolls in on six straight with three top 10s, so I'm leaning into his form, plus he's never MC in four attempts at this championship. The "other" news is that he's never painted the top 10 here, but for +750 that's not surprising.

As is the case weekly with this pick, hit the window and change it when it goes sideways.

TOP 20

Glass … Stewart Cink (+600)

Admittedly, I've struggled to intersect value with form, but that's the best part of this game: Perfect is NOT required. Chances can be taken, even 49-year old chances.

His best performances this year were on demanding ball-striking layouts like Innisbrook and TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm. Also finished T23 at Southern Hills and T24 last week at The Renaissance Club.

Rob … Keita Nakajima (+1400)

I went into more detail in Sleepers on why the long-standing world’s top-ranked amateur is attractive this week, but the abridged version is that if an amateur is going to connect at an Open, it’s going to be at St. Andrews. Three ams recorded a top-15 finish in the last time the course hosted in 2015, and it’s the last time it’s happened in any Open.

ROUND 1

LEADER

Glass … Webb Simpson (+10000)

First group out, perfect greens. I'm not going to overthink this. My USUAL selection of McIlroy can still be in play 18 groups later but at +1200, I can patiently wait. Or sleep in. Or both.

Rob … Rory McIlroy (+1200)

With all 52 threesomes in single file off 1, there’s a greater likelihood that I’ll be alert before this window closes as compared to last week. Still, I’m doing what Glass will regret … again.

In his last six starts, McIlroy has averaged 66.17 in the first round. Yes, it includes a 62 a TPC River Highlands, but it also includes two majors and another two tough tracks.

NOTE: While Glass and Rob typically stick with their selections as detailed in Pick ‘Em Preview, they are allowed the right to make changes at any time.