2022 Valero Texas Open, Round 1

Scoring Conditions:

Overall: -0.16 strokes per round
Morning wave: -0.47
Afternoon wave: +0.16

Current cutline (top 65 and ties)

71 players at -1 or better (T53)

Top 3 projected cutline probabilities:

1. E: 40.0%
2. 1 under par: 32.3%
3. 1 over par: 16.5%

Top 10 win probabilities:

1. Russell Knox (1, -7, 8.9%)
2. Denny McCarthy (T3, -5, 6.5%)
3. J.J. Spaun (T3, -5, 5.2%)
4. Rasmus Hojgaard (2, -6, 4.3%)
5. Si Woo Kim (T18, -3, 3.3%)
6. Aaron Rai (T3, -5, 3.1%)
7. Tony Finau (T30, -2, 3.1%)
8. Corey Conners (T30, -2, 3.0%)
9. Scott Stallings (T7, -4, 2.9%)
10. Brendan Steele (T7, -4, 2.8%)

NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.