Draws and Fades: Look to putters to continue leading the way at Sony Open in Hawaii

The old saying goes, "Drive for show, putt for dough," and it appears as if the putters are indeed on the money at the halfway point of the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Patrick Fishburn, first in SG: Putting, and Denny McCarthy, third on the greens this week, moved to 10-under through 36 holes at Waialae Country Club to pace the field on the leaderboard. They sit one clear of 24-year-old Japan Golf Tour star Kensei Hirata (11th in Strokes Gained: Putting), Paul Peterson and former PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year Eric Cole.

Five players in Sepp Straka, Lee Hodges, Alex Smalley, J.J. Spaun and veteran Zach Johnson share fifth at 8-under. Hodges sits at second in SG: Putting.

Three off the pace are Russell Henley, Brian Harman and Tom Kim, with three others, and nine, including Sahith Theegala, are just four back in a wide-open tournament.

One big question stands out heading to the weekend: Will putting ultimately prove the major difference? In the past, it seemed a sure thing. Between 2010 and 2020, plus in 2022, every winner at Waialae was inside the top eight of SG: Putting. After a two-year hiatus (in 2023 Si Woo Kim was 38th and a year ago Grayson Murray was 30th) are we heading back to the trend?

Former champion Si Woo Kim missed the cut by a shot after losing over 5.5 shots to the field on the greens. Pre-tournament second favorite Corey Conners was near-last in the field a week after leading it on the greens in Maui to go home early. Byeong Hun An also missed the cut by a shot after losing over 3.5 shots on the greens. It matters.

With one round down, here are FanDuel’s outright odds and my thoughts around the top putters on the board.

• +500: Denny McCarthy (-10, T1)
• +700: Patrick Fishburn (-10, T1)
• +1000: Eric Cole (-9, T3)
• +1100: Tom Kim (-7, T11)
• +1200: Russell Henley (-7, T11)
• +1400: Sepp Straka (-8, T6),
• +2200: J.J. Spaun (-8, T6)
• +2500: Kensei Hirata (-9, T3); Lee Hodges (-8, T6); Paul Peterson (-9, T3)

Putting contenders

1. Russell Henley +1200

I’m definitely a little frustrated I whiffed on the 2013 Sony Open in Hawaii champion in the lead-up and left him for my Golfbet colleague Will Gray to talk up. His record at Waialae also includes a second and T4 in the last three years to go with his win on debut 11 years ago. After making the U.S. Team last season for the Presidents Cup it makes sense his confidence would grow another level and the ability he has to get hot with the putter is compelling with 36 holes to go. He’s currently eighth in the field at SG: Putting, something I expect to continue, while there is improvement due in SG: Tee-to-Green (82nd), given he was 30th in the metric on TOUR last season.

2. Denny McCarthy +500

McCarthy is a known putter – fourth in fact on TOUR last season – which is why you see him as the favorite with the oddsmakers. The concern is he’s losing strokes off the tee, a common theme in his game, so he must continue to rely on the flatstick. We saw what McCarthy is capable of last year at the Valero Texas Open. He made almost everything in his final-round 63, forcing a playoff against Akshay Bhatia, but ultimately chunked an approach shot to take his putter out of the final result. Until he wins, the short odds have me slotting him behind Henley at this stage.

3. Patrick Fishburn +700

A rookie last season, Fishburn showed plenty of promise after a slow start. After missing seven of his first eight cuts he put up five top 10s, including two third-place efforts. I’m a fan of Fishburn in general but his putting stats this week are so different from last season, which worries me a little. He leads the field this week but was 80th last season. He also hasn’t won on TOUR, making the weekend a nerve-wracking prospect.

4. Lee Hodges +2500

The odds here certainly had me intrigued because I remember all too well Hodges surprisingly winning the 2023 3M Open by dominating the field. But then I remembered he had just two top 10s last year and ranked 158th in SG: Putting. Can we be sure he won’t regress on the greens this weekend having ranked second thus far? I think the oddsmakers have answered.

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