Draws and Fades: Eye chasers in THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson final round

It appears not even an injured shoulder can slow down the big-hitting Canadian, Taylor Pendrith at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson this week in McKinney, Texas. For now, that is.

Pendrith lapped the field with the low round of the day, an 8-under 63 at TPC Craig Ranch that included back-to-back eagles on the outward nine, to get to 19-under par and now heads into Sunday's final round with a one-shot advantage over Jake Knapp and two shots better than Ben Kohles and Matt Wallace.

Citing calcific tendonitis in his left shoulder that began back in January at the Farmers Insurance Open, Pendrith has dealt with the injury non-surgically, and evidently well enough to continue playing at a very high level.

He began the day trailing the 36-hole leader, Knapp, by three shots at 11-under par for the tournament. By the time both he and Knapp reached the inward nine on Saturday, Pendrith had gotten it to 17-under for the tournament, grabbed the solo lead, and assumed the role of in-game favorite at +225.

A winner earlier this season at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, Knapp began the day as the favorite at +400 to grab his second career win. He was at 14-under par and before he even teed off on Saturday, his price had dropped to +350. Knapp had fired two straight rounds of 64 on Thursday and Friday but finally cooled off on Saturday, shooting a 4-under round of 67 to get to 18-under and is now a +250 choice to be THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson winner. Pendrith is the favorite heading into Sunday at +200.

Weather was a part of the story all week, leading up to the tournament start on Thursday. But Mother Nature has cooperated nicely so far with the skies being cloudy, no real moisture to speak of, and the winds being moderate. We expected scores to be low with the average winning score, the last three editions at TPC Craig Ranch, being better than 24-under.

The forecast is calling for showers and thunderstorms overnight and on into Sunday with wind again, not expected to be much of a factor. We'll have to wait and see how much golf can be played but it looks like we will certainly have a soft golf course and continued favorable scoring conditions.

Going into Saturday's round, I gave anyone within five shots or better of the lead, a chance to win the tournament. I feel the same way heading into Sunday. There are nine players making up the top 10 on the leaderboard, trailing Pendrith by five shots or fewer.

Here are the latest outright odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +200: Taylor Pendrith (-19, 1st)
• +250: Jake Knapp (-18, 2nd)
• +600: Matt Wallace (-17, T3)
• +900: Ben Kohles (-17, T3)
• +1200: Alex Noren (-15, T5)
• +2500: Byeong Hun An (-14, T7)
• +4500: Kelly Kraft (-15, T5)
• +5000: Si Woo Kim (-13, T11)
• +6600: Min Woo Lee (-13, T11)

Here are the players I am looking to back and who I am going against, heading into Sunday's finale deep in the heart of Texas.

Draws

Matt Wallace (+900)

The Englishman was the First Round Leader at the conclusion of Thursday’s round after shooting 63. He’s followed that up with rounds of 66 and 67. If he can go back the other direction and post a 64 or 65 on Sunday, that might be enough. He’s doing nearly everything very well. He ranks eighth in this field for SG: Off the Tee, 14th for SG: Approach, and is third for SG: Around the Green. However, Wallace is 44th in the field for SG: Putting through three rounds but is an excellent putter, ranking 51st on TOUR. I believe this area of his game will come back in a positive direction and he’ll have a much better day on Sunday with the flat stick. That could easily be enough to propel him to the winner’s circle – a place he Is not unfamiliar, having won the Corales Puntacana Championship last season.

Alex Noren (+1200)

If you are looking for a longer shot, I believe this is the best chance. Noren flirted with First-Round Leader honors on Thursday, firing a 64. He understandably followed that up with a bit of a letdown, shooting a pedestrian 68 on Friday. Noren found his form again on Saturday, firing a 66, a day in which he improved on his approach play for the second straight day. His putting rebounded on Saturday too, after ranking 96th in the field for SG: Putting on Friday, Noren was 11th on Saturday. If the approach play and putting continue to trend in a positive direction, Noren, an 11-time winner worldwide, may find himself capturing his first-ever win on the PGA TOUR.

Fade

Taylor Pendrith (+200)

It is difficult to fade a front-runner in a birdie-fest because they aren't likely to come back to the pack far enough to allow others to catch up. We saw Knapp do so on Saturday to a degree, shooting a 4-under par round versus two straight seven-under rounds on the two days prior. I could see Pendrith doing something similar after going especially low on Saturday and also feeling the pressure of trying to secure his first-ever TOUR win. Also, will that shoulder bother him? It will almost certainly be on his mind and that alone could be enough to throw him off a tick. I expect that he will not be able to throw up another round of 63 on Sunday and will cool off enough to let some others into the fray. His price is very fair but I don't love his situation.