Draws and Fades: Who can still run down Scottie Scheffler… and why they probably won’t

Before a ball was hit this week, I went out on the plank and declared Scottie Scheffler a fade this week. Now I’m having nightmares of the Texan in a pirate’s costume, digging me with a cutlass while the hungry sharks swim below.

To be fair, declaring Scheffler’s +400 pre-tournament odds a fade proved to be the right call. But only if you jumped on and backed him at some point when he blew out as high as +1600 early in the second round.

After an 8-under 63 on Saturday, Scheffler was giving the rest of the RBC Heritage field nightmares of their own.

It moved the world No. 1 to 16-under for the week as he chases a fourth win in his last five starts, including THE PLAYERS and last week’s Masters Tournament. No player has won the direct week after winning a major since Tiger Woods in 2006.

Scheffler leads by one from Sepp Straka and is two clear of the man he beat at Augusta National in Collin Morikawa.

Sahith Theegala, Patrick Rodgers and Masters runner-up Ludvig Åberg share fourth at 13-under, giving Scheffler a three-shot head start on Sunday. Seamus Power, Patrick Cantlay, J.T. Poston and Tom Hoge round out those within four of the lead.

Scheffler is now -150 to win on Sunday – a fate that appears very likely indeed.

“Yeah, it feels inevitable at this point,” Rodgers said. “His ball-striking is incredible.”

Morikawa and Straka are the next best on the odds board at +650.

Here’s the board as it stands with BetMGM sportsbook:

• -150: Scottie Scheffler (-16, 1st)
• +650: Collin Morikawa (-14, 3rd)
• +650: Sepp Straka (-15, 2nd)
• +1000: Ludvig Åberg (-13, T4)
• +1800: Sahith Theegala (-13, T4)
• +2500: Patrick Cantlay (-12, T7)
• +3300: Patrick Rodgers (-13, T4)
• +4500: J.T. Poston (-12, T7)
• +5500: Tom Hoge (-12, T7)

Here’s the case for and against those I think have even the slightest chance of winning.

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (-150, first)

Case for: Where do we begin. Leading in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach, plus coming off three wins and a second place in his last four starts. Won at Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National no less. If Scheffler doesn’t win, there will be a steward’s inquiry.

Case against: I’m drawing a blank here guys… except to say maybe the weight of history? No player has won the week after winning a major since Tiger Woods in 2006. He is ranked 50th this week in SG: Around-the-Green… is that a problem?? Not if you never miss greens!

COLLIN MORIKAWA (+650, third)

Case for: At 11th this week in SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in SG: Putting, the two-time major winner is probably the most likely candidate to mount a challenge on Scheffler. Was T7 here in 2021

Case against: His approach game has slipped back to 43rd in the field, and if he can’t find more accuracy into the greens, he won’t have enough chances to catch the leader. His T3 at the Masters was his first top-10 since The Sentry in early January.

SEPP STRAKA (+650, second)

Case for: At fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green and inside the top 25 for all Strokes Gained categories, Straka is playing great golf. He also leads the field in driving accuracy, total birdies, scrambling, par-4 scoring and back-nine scoring, among other things. As a two-time TOUR winner and Ryder Cup winner, he’s no stranger to Sunday pressure.

Case against: He’s not taking advantage of the par 5s (T50) and has missed five putts inside 10 feet. He will need to make them all Sunday.

LUDVIG ÅBERG (+1000, T4)

Case for: Åberg is a talent who has won on the PGA TOUR, DP World Tour and also a Ryder Cup. He was runner up at the Masters on debut and has failed to have a three-putt this week. He’s running T2 in GIR this week, the same rank he holds in par-5 scoring, bogey avoidance and SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach. He has the firepower to mount a charge.

Case against: He is yet to make a birdie with an approach shot inside 125 yards so perhaps he should lay back on his distance off the tee! Ranks 58th in SG: Around the Green, and 43rd in SG: Putting. He's going to need to make more putts to contend.

SAHITH THEEGALA (+1800, T4)

Case for: Theegala is third in the field in front-nine scoring average so perhaps he can go out and light it up early to apply pressure. He’s 10-under on that side of the course. Also running third in driving distance.

Case against: Driving accuracy is a dismal T64 this week. Needs to find the short grass to be able to attack more.