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Five (or maybe just two) players who can still win the Masters

4 Min Read

Draws and Fades

Max Homa trails by two shots heading into the final round of the 88th Masters Tournament. (David Cannon/Getty Images)

Max Homa trails by two shots heading into the final round of the 88th Masters Tournament. (David Cannon/Getty Images)

    Written by Ben Everill @BEverillGolfbet

    From 89 to 13, to 10, and now just five, or maybe even just two, players remain with a chance to win the 2024 Masters.

    Nowhere else do trends hit as often as those at Augusta National and after three rounds, only two players fit into the bucket of hitting three of the most reliable tendencies in Masters champions history.

    As we gear up for a huge Sunday ahead, one must remember that the last 27 winners of the green jacket were within at least four shots of the lead heading to the final round.

    With world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler at 7-under and leading, only Collin Morikawa (6-under), Max Homa (5-under), Ludvig Åberg (4-under) and Bryson DeChambeau (3-under) are within the necessary distance to strike.

    Not since Greg Norman’s infamous collapse in 1996, when he led by six through 54 holes but coughed up the title to Nick Faldo, has anyone come from further back.

    This means Xander Schauffele, Cam Davis and Nicolai Højgaard, all at 2-under, are going to need a historic Sunday. And Byeong Hun An, Cameron Smith, Cameron Young and Tommy Fleetwood, at 1-under, need a minor miracle.

    When you combine the other trends – the last 18 champions, and 71 of all 87 winners, were inside the top 11 after 18 holes – and the fact 36 of the last 37 Masters champions were inside the top 10 at the halfway mark – only Scheffler and Homa remain on track.

    Winds are due to be calmer again, but not absent, on Sunday. This should mean the conditions are likely to be the most scoreable of the week. Combine with traditional Sunday pins at Augusta National and the trademark roars could reverberate around the pines.

    The final group tees off at 2:35 p.m. local and here are the latest odds via BetMGM Sportsbook.

    • -120: Scottie Scheffler (7-under, first)
    • +350: Collin Morikawa (6-under, second)
    • +750: Max Homa (5-under, third)
    • +850: Ludvig Åberg (4-under, fourth)
    • +2000: Bryson DeChambeau (3-under, fifth)
    • +3000: Xander Schauffele (2-under, T6)
    • +8000: Cameron Smith (1-under, T9)
    • +8000: Tommy Fleetwood (1-under, T9)
    • +10000: Cam Davis (2-under, T6)


    Scottie Scheffler (-120)

    For a segment of Saturday, the world No. 1 was human when he made a sloppy double bogey on No. 10 and another bad bogey on No. 11. But an eagle on No. 13 righted the ship and then a statement birdie on the last hole to take the outright lead put the 2022 Masters champion back as the prohibitive favorite. He was already the shortest pre-tournament favorite since Tiger Woods in 2013 and now can prove beyond certainty that he’s the best in the game at the moment by a country mile. Coming off wins at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and THE PLAYERS he leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Around-the-Green and is second Off-the-Tee. At 25th in Approach, he can still improve on his usual strength! The only concern – as always – is if the putter goes cold. He’s 36th in the field at the moment on the greens and if a contender can put him in some must-make situations, that could be their window.

    Max Homa (+750)

    Stick with the trends! While Homa’s usual trend of being garbage at Augusta National has finally been buried, he still fits the three trends mentioned above despite not being able to find a birdie since the fourth hole in Round 2! He leads the field in SG: Approach, is fifth in Tee-to-Green and sixth in putting. If he can get some putts to drop Sunday and keep his head switched on, the six-time TOUR winner could break his major drought of just one top-10 in emphatic fashion.


    Collin Morikawa (+350)

    Clearly, this is the two-time major-winning version of Morikawa and not the version we’ve seen struggle on the PGA TOUR this year… but I’m still not buying… because… well you know… the trends! But let’s be real, if you do like him, there is plenty to like. He is third Tee-to-Green, fourth on Approach, seventh putting and ninth Off-the-Tee. My concern is can he recover from off the greens as nerves take hold and harder and faster conditions get going. At 21st Around-the-Green I see a little issue there, but Morikawa has blitzed major fields before and could do it again. He has less pressure having won big titles, but more having not won a green jacket.

    Ludvig Åberg (+850)

    Trends. Not only the above, but a first-time Masters player hasn’t won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Honestly though, sign me up for Åberg a year from now when he returns with the knowledge gained this year! He’s second in putting, fifth in both SG: Approach and SG: Off-the-Tee and has shown a clear ability to make birdies. At 54th Around-the-Greens this year, and with the mounting pressure coming down the stretch, I think he’ll go close, but no cigar.


    Don’t forget the carrot of finishing top 12 on the leaderboard gets a player a return invitation to the 2025 Masters. While some in the field will have other ways to make it, some don’t. So if you are looking for overnight top-10 plays, factor in players who can handle the grind, and the weight, of the prize a big finish brings. Chris Kirk shot the round of the day Saturday, a 68 to move to T16, can he improve to top-10 at +400?

    Senior Writer, Golfbet Follow Ben Everill on Twitter.

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