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Can Camilo Villegas turn last week’s near-miss into a drought-breaking win in Bermuda?

4 Min Read

Draws and Fades

Can Camilo Villegas turn last week’s near-miss into a drought-breaking win in Bermuda?

    Written by Jimmy Reinman

    A bevy of veteran experience can be found atop the leaderboard heading into the final round at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Alex Noren, Camilo Villegas, Stewart Cink and Adam Scott find themselves all firmly in contention heading into Sunday at Port Royal Golf Course. In the year 2023. On Veterans Day no less, five of the top nine on the leaderboard through 54 holes are age 40 or older, proving age is just a number in Bermuda.

    Noren posted a comfortable 67 on Saturday to maintain his lead, but not without resurgent Villegas cutting into the deficit with a 65. Noren has never won on the PGA TOUR despite winning 11 times internationally, and he takes a one-shot lead into Sunday. Villegas, on the other hand, is searching for his first win since 2014 and is building off a runner-up finish last week in Mexico. Just behind them is 40-year-old Ryan Moore, also searching for his first win since 2016. Crashing the middle-aged party is 25-year-old Matti Schmid, who eagled the 17th to make things interesting from an odds perspective coming down the stretch. The young German has just one top 10 this season but posted a 65 of his own to join the conversation.

    Let’s take a full look at the latest odds, provided by BetMGM Sportsbook:

    +150: Alex Noren (-19, 1st)
    +400: Camilo Villegas (-18, 2nd)
    +700: Matti Schmid (-17 T3), Ryan Moore (-17, T3)
    +1600: Adam Scott (-15, T6)
    +1600: Stewart Cink (-16, 5th)
    +2800: Vince Whaley (-15 T6)

    Here’s a look at the players I’m looking to back heading into the finale at Port Royal, along with a major champion who I’m keeping off my card:


    Camilo Villegas (+400)

    We are ready to get hurt again. The story of Villegas rejuvenating his game to pop up on leaderboards across the FedExCup Fall has been well told. While last week’s Sunday performance didn’t inspire tremendous confidence, it was a massive step in the right direction for a player that has been lost in the woods for the better part of the last decade. Villegas leads the field in greens hit this week at Port Royal and continues to put himself in scoring positions across paradise. He counterbalances this with his Driving Accuracy, where he ranks 14th, and has pieced apart this reachable course with precision off the tee. Villegas has posted just two bogeys the entire week in Bermuda, avoiding the big number that lurks in these windy conditions. At +400, the value is there for a play on the Colombian legend to chase down Noren on Sunday.

    Camilo Villegas’ Round 3 highlights from Butterfield Bermuda

    Matti Schmid (+700)

    While the rookie has yet to sniff a win on TOUR, it is hard to ignore his value in the situation he finds himself on Sunday. Schmid sits just two strokes off the lead, trailing two players with plenty of scar tissue when it comes to trying to close out a tournament. Sunday at Port Royal is looking like another windy endeavor, where ball-striking will be a premium skill needed to carve approaches into greens. Driving distance hasn’t proven to be the mark of a low score this week on the shortest course on TOUR. Schmid ranks fifth in Greens in Regulation this week and has the talent to keep steady if things start to shake up on the leaderboard. While the old guard has seen many a lead squandered, the young Schmid has nothing but youthful exuberance to conjure if he finds himself with a shot at the trophy. This could work to his advantage. A situation like this, with a bit of Sunday chaos, could be the perfect formula for Schmid to make his move – and at +700, the price is right to back the young blood.

    Matti Schmid drains eagle putt at Butterfield Bermuda


    Adam Scott (+1600)

    Approaching the final round of the tournament, it's crucial to reassess the odds, especially when considering Scott at +1600. While Scott undeniably boasts impressive talent and a distinguished career, the price tag attached seems unjustifiably steep. Scott is buoyed on the leaderboard by a hole-out eagle, and only ranks 28th in GIR heading into Sunday. Despite being a skilled player, paying a premium merely because of Scott's name and past achievements doesn't align with the current tournament situation. From an odds standpoint, a more realistic evaluation suggests that +2500 would better reflect the current circumstances, especially with a regress to the mean in lucky breaks possibly in the cards for Sunday. In this context, caution is advised against placing bets on Scott at his current odds.

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    Jimmy Reinman is a member of the PGA TOUR's digital content team. A native of Florida’s Space Coast, he is passionate about golf’s most emboldened characters and bizarre lore. He dreams of one day making center-face contact with a long iron.

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