Running with Rick: Expect iron play to lift Hideki Matsuyama to more success at TPC Southwind

We are down to just 70 players who have qualified for the PGA TOUR’s FedExCup Playoffs, giving us the best players on TOUR this year battling it out over a three-week run. TPC Southwind will play host to the first leg – this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship.

There are no weak spots in this field, as everyone teeing it up this week has earned it through their play on the course this season. The TOUR’s best will battle at a familiar course in TPC Southwind, which has been a staple on the schedule for many years.

The two main objectives will be to find the fairway and avoid making bogey. If players can do both of those things, they will be in prime position to contend over the weekend. Finding the fairway is crucial, as TPC Southwind boasts a +0.50-stroke penalty for shots from the rough, one of the higher penalties on the schedule. That, of course, relates to the importance of avoiding bogeys. The winning score will almost certainly be held in check, with a few shots under par each day being good enough to contend. With that knowledge and plenty of course data, we can compile a solid card for this week.

By his own lofty standards, this is the worst statistical season for Corey Conners since becoming a full-time PGA TOUR pro in 2017. He’s gaining “only” +0.20 strokes per round this season, which is well off his career baseline. However, his play recently has started to look more like that long-term DNA we would expect to see from Conners. Over his last six starts, he’s gained 1.22 strokes per round, and that's resulted in some of his best finishes of the campaign.

During this run, Conners has hit at least 66% of his fairways in every event, and he continues to beat his peers significantly on the second shot. It’s been a mixed bag of results for Conners at TPC Southwind in his career, but he has plenty of experience. He’s played here nine times, with 2023 being his highlight – a T6 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Conners is not safe to advance to next week’s BMW Championship, so he will need a solid finish this week to extend his season. I’m comfortable deploying him in the top-20 market, where his odds are +225 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

We haven’t seen Ludvig Åberg tee it up since the Open Championship, where he finished T9, so he will enter this week well-rested for what is likely to be a deep run into the FedExCup Playoffs. His performance at Royal Birkdale was vintage Åberg, as he gained more than seven strokes from tee to green. He’s gained at least seven strokes from tee to green in eight of his 17 starts this year, proving that he’s elite in the category.

He’s only played at TPC Southwind twice in his career, finishing T40 in 2024 and T9 last year. His skill set should play perfectly at this venue, considering how long and straight he is off the tee. When Åberg has his best stuff, he’s a contender, which is why I feel his top-10 market (+190) is worth consideration for this week.

It’s fairly obvious that Sam Burns has been the best player in the world this year without a victory. He’s gaining a stout 1.28 strokes per round over 62 rounds, and his recent play is even better than that. In his last five alone, he’s racked up three top-five finishes and hasn’t finished outside the top 20. His iron play is scorching hot right now. Over those 20 rounds, Burns has gained a staggering 24.27 strokes on approach alone.

Those stat lines look very similar to what he’s done at TPC Southwind in his career. In six trips, he’s never lost strokes on approach here, and he’s gained more than five strokes putting in three of his last five visits. The ability to be elite on both approach and putting is a seriously high-upside combination. That’s why you’re seeing Burns routinely in the mix late in events this summer. Thanks to his recent play and course history, I believe he’ll be in the mix again this week. I’m clicking his name to finish inside the top five, which is currently being priced at +335.

We are getting one of the hottest players on the planet heading to one of the best courses for his game, so obviously he’s going to be my pick to win. That man, of course, is Hideki Matsuyama. His last five starts couldn’t look any better on the stat sheet. The results are excellent, all top-15s, with two top-fives as well. His improvement off the tee has been the catalyst for this uptick in finishing positions, and it’s allowing him to lean into the real strength of his game – iron play.

Matsuyama becomes dangerous when he’s playing out of the short grass with a look at the pin. There is truly no flatstick that feels safe in this scenario. That couldn’t be any more true as he takes aim at TPC Southwind this week. In his last five trips to Memphis, Matsuyama has gained a robust 24.85 strokes on approach. That’s more than 1.5 strokes per round in just one facet of the game. It should come as no surprise that he’s earned five top-20 finishes in that stretch, with a win and T2 to help boost the resume.

Very few golfers can get as hot as Matsuyama, who has proven to be an elite winner in some of the game’s biggest events. For all of these reasons, he’s my pick to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship at +3300.

For resources related to problem gambling, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.