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Odds Outlook: Sizzling Scottie Scheffler stands alone atop the Colonial odds board

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Odds Outlook: Sizzling Scottie Scheffler stands alone atop the Colonial odds board

    Written by Mike Glasscott @MikeGlasscott

    For the fifth and final test of the year in Texas, the 2022-23 season takes the PGA TOUR to the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth. "Hogan's Alley" will host for the 78th consecutive season. The Par-70 layout will stretch to 7,209 yards, just as it has done since 2015.

    The man to beat this week was only beaten by one man last week at Oak Hill. Dallas resident Scottie Scheffler (+400) will look to put last Saturday's round behind him and add another victory in 2023, and he’ll do so as a clear betting favorite in the eyes of oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook.

    The Texan led by two shots after 54 holes last year at Colonial but lost in a playoff. Not many are hitting it better recently, as he leads the TOUR in SG: Total, SG: Off the Tee, and is second in SG: Tee to Green. Moving the ball both directions off the tee and into the greens this week should be right up his alley, pun intended.

    Another Texan (and another Dallas resident), Jordan Spieth (+1400) will look to improve on his already stout record at Colonial. His previous 10 starts have resulted in weekend tee times in all 10 outings. Of those 10 paychecks, eight have gone for the top-10 variety, including a win in 2016 and three seconds. Nine of the 10 paydays are T14 or better. Two weeks ago, the former Longhorn missed the last event in Dallas, the AT&T Byron Nelson, as he was dealing with a wrist problem. Cashing T29 at a very difficult Oak Hill Country Club last week during the PGA Championship suggests that injury could be behind him.

    Collin Morikawa (+1600) has produced his best results this season on strategic golf courses where keeping the golf ball in play is paramount. The Riviera Country Club, also known as "Hogan's Alley", is where Morikawa finished solo sixth earlier this season. His 10th-place payday at Augusta National was also impressive. Falling in a playoff on his first visit in 2020, he's never MC from three events. Leading the TOUR in SG: Approach and ranking fifth SG: Tee to Green, he'll give his putter plenty of chances. T26 at Oak Hill last week.

    Tony Finau (+1600) has already won on a demanding track in Texas once this season, back in October at Memorial Park in Houston. Another win in Mexico in the last week of April continued his nine-month run of excellence. I think he's ready to get after it in warmer weather in Fort Worth after posting four rounds of 72 or worse at Oak Hill last week for T72. Runner-up in 2019 and T4 last year, the big hitter enters the week ranking in the top five in SG: Tee to Green and SG: Approach.

    Viktor Hovland (+1600) fell two holes short last weekend in his quest to claim his first major championship after an unfortunate bunker shot on No. 16. Keeping his poise, he rolled in a birdie putt on No. 18 to share second, his best result in a major championship. This season the Norwegian produced top-10 finishes at Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass, Augusta National, and last week at Oak Hill. A classic layout should mesh perfectly with his ball-striking. Making his third start, he improved T23 on debut in 2020 with T21 last June. Currently ranks in the top 11 in the three Strokes-Gained ball-striking categories.

    Max Homa (+2200) and Sungjae Im (+2200) return to the TOUR this week after disappointing results at Oak Hill. Homa took home T55 money after posting four rounds above 70 last week. He will look to improve on his record of two weekends from four visits while improving on T23 as his best. Im opened with 80 in Rochester, stretched over two days because of weather issues, and then went home after 73 in Round 2. Mother Nature should be kinder this week as temperatures should be in the 80s, and precipitation after Wednesday should be minimal.

    Rounding out the top choices on the board at BetMGM is defending champion Sam Burns (+2500). Knocking out Scheffler with a 38-foot putt on the first extra hole last year gave him his second playoff win in six events on TOUR. The Louisiana native has already proven he has the tools to defend. He went back-to-back at Valspar in 2021 and 2022 before claiming solo sixth this season. Posting 74-80 (MC) last week should also provide proper motivation.

    Here's a look at some of the other notable odds at BetMGM ahead of this week’s event (Note: PGA Professional Michael Block, playing on a sponsor invite after his T-15 finish at the PGA Championship, is listed at +30000).

    +2800: Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood

    +3300: Rickie Fowler

    +4000: Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim

    +4500: Cam Davis, Chris Kirk

    +5000: Denny McCarthy, Min Woo Lee, Stephan Jaeger

    +6600: Brendon Todd, Emiliano Grillo, KH Lee, Taylor Moore, Tom Hoge, Alex Smalley, Brian Harman, Byeong Hun An, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Kurt Kitayama, Ryan Fox

    +8000: Andrew Putnam, Davis Riley, Eric Cole, Harris English, Lucas Herbert, Ryan Palmer

    +9000: Billy Horschel, Hayden Buckley, JJ Spaun, Justin Suh, Thomas Detry

    How it works:

    Field of 120 players

    Of the top 50 OWGR, 24 are entered.

    Top 65 and ties will play the final two rounds.

    On the line is a prize pool of $8.7 million, with the winner receiving $1.566 million plus 500 FedExCup Points.

    Circle back tomorrow as I post more details in Horses for Courses plus the Betting Stat Pack.

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