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Texan Scottie Scheffler tops favorites at AT&T Byron Nelson

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Texan Scottie Scheffler tops favorites at AT&T Byron Nelson


    Written by Mike Glasscott @MikeGlasscott

    Editor's note (May 8, 2023): Jordan Spieth has withdrawn from the AT&T Byron Nelson due to a left wrist injury that requires rest and limited movement, he said on Instagram.


    The final event before next week's PGA Championship takes the TOUR back to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson, the third of four scheduled visits in 2023. The field will boast several players from the Lone Star State, but one stands out as a clear betting favorite in the eyes of oddsmakers BetMGM Sportsbook.

    Scottie Scheffler (+450) makes his third consecutive start in his home state the week before the PGA Championship. The 2022 Masters champion will be looking to add to his majors haul next week. This week he will be looking for his first top 10 at TPC Craig Ranch. His 19-under total last year was only good enough for T15. Signing for 11-under par in the debut event in 2021 scratched out T47 money. Better get LOW this week!

    Scheffler has already won twice this season. The first title came on a Tom Weiskopf design as he defended at TPC Scottsdale in February. His second victory came at THE PLAYERS Championship in March. All 10 of his paydays (from 10 events) in calendar 2023 are T12 or better.

    Next in line is Jordan Spieth (+900), who has pocketed two of his 13 career TOUR wins in his native state. Last year he missed out on making it a hat trick as his challenge fell one shot short. His TPC Craig Ranch debut in 2021 saw him cash T9. His aggregate here is now 43-under-par. On the 2023 portion of the season he's registered five top-10 paydays. None include a win, but he was T6 in Scottsdale and lost a playoff the week after the Masters. Missing the weekend at the Wells Fargo Championship provided two extra days at home in Dallas to recharge.

    Tyrrell Hatton (+1200) moseys into town off T3 last week in Charlotte for his first look at the rearranged par-71 layout. The first two editions at TPC Craig Ranch played to Par-72 and extended to 7,468 yards. This week it will be 7,414 yards, as the par-5 No. 12 is now 54 yards shorter and is playing as a par 4. The Englishman won't know any better, but he knows how to rack up big finishes. Nine entries on TOUR in 2023 have produced four top-10 paychecks, including T6 at TPC Scottsdale and solo second at THE PLAYERS Championship. Not many weaknesses in this bag!

    Everything was fresh and new this time last season for Tom Kim (+1800). The Korean made his first start of calendar 2022 here last year, led the field in fairways, ended up T7 GIR, and picked up T17 money. He won seven events later at Wyndham, and the rest is history! Having a chance to experience courses and events for the second time should add to his comfort level. The Dallas resident is tight with Jordan Spieth and should feel right at home this week in his second start.

    Last year K.H. Lee (+2200) joined Sam Snead, Jack Nicklaus and Tom Watson as the only repeat winners at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Not bad company, if you can keep it! With a third consecutive event victory this week, Lee will look to equal Steve Stricker (2009-2011) as the last player on TOUR to win an event three consecutive seasons. The Korean has barbecued TPC Craig Ranch to the tune of 51 under, including 56 birdies (28 each year). In 144 holes over the last two years he's made SIX bogeys. Total. Playing in the final group in 2021 he bested his playing partner by four shots to win by three. Last year he posted 63 in the final round to make up a four-shot deficit after three rounds.

    Hideki Matsuyama (+2200) returns to competition this week for the first time since T16 at the Masters. The Japanese star has missed the last two elevated events (RBC Heritage, Wells Fargo Championship) citing a neck injury. This may be the place that cures what ails him. An annual visitor to the Dallas suburbs, he closed with 62 last year to hit the podium (T3, 24 under) after posting T39 in 2021. ... Jason Day (+2200) missed the cut here in 2021 on 5 under but rebounded to make the weekend in 2022 (T51). Rounds above par here don't fly and 73 on Saturday sent him spiraling in the opposite direction. Day, similarly to Matsuyama, has been dealing recently with a malady that deserves attention. Read this piece from Cameron Morfit for details to get up to speed.

    Here's a look at other notable odds, as TPC Craig Ranch gets set to host this event for the third consecutive year (odds via BetMGM):

    +2500: Matt Kuchar

    +3300: Adam Scott, Seamus Power

    +4000: Min Woo Lee, Si Woo Kim, Taylor Montgomery

    +5000: Aaron Wise, Brandon Wu, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Maverick McNealy, Tom Hoge

    +5500: Adam Hadwin, Byeong Hun An, Stephan Jaeger

    +6600: Davis Riley, J.J. Spaun, Scott Stallings, Alex Smalley, S.H. Kim, Will Gordon

    +8000: Eric Cole, Jimmy Walker, Joseph Bramlett, Sam Stevens

    +9000: Aaron Rai, Justin Suh, Mark Hubbard, Michael Kim

    +10000: Adam Schenk, Harry Hall, Luke List, MJ Daffue, Mackenzie Hughes, Nate Lashley

    How it works:

    Field of 156 players.

    Top 65 and ties will play the final two rounds.

    On the line is a prize pool of $9.5 million with the winner receiving $1.71 million plus 500 FedExCup Points.

    Circle back tomorrow as I post Horses for Courses plus the Betting Stat Pack.


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