Golfbet Insider: RBC Heritage

The RBC Heritage is the fifth of 11 tournaments contributing to Segment 3 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. It’s also the second of five designated events during this phase. The remaining three are the Wells Fargo Championship, the PGA Championship and the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, the last of which concludes the Segment.

The fields at Harbour Town have remained consistently strong for a few years, but this week’s could challenge the Official World Golf Ranking’s strength-of-field rating (SOF) of 712 in June of 2020 when it was rescheduled following the three-month shutdown due to the pandemic. The last three SOFs in the traditional slot the week after the Masters were 460 (2019), 481 (2021) and 461 (2022).

The moral of that message is that, although the RBC Heritage is a designated event, it’s been rising into that kind of class for a while. However, there isn’t a great deal of positive course history concerning the usual considerations for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, so gamers in pursuit who prefer it might feel like it’s riskier to burn a start on chalk now than it would be to save it for any of the remaining designated events. The problem with that plan is that the target of your aggression is more likely to cancel it out for the same reason.

In the reviews below, I dive into the phenomenon that’s unique to this week and extend two household names who are not in the Power Rankings but should generate an inflated ownership percentage among chasers. Think of it this way: There’s the chalk that you played at the Masters, and then there’s the chalk that makes the most sense at Harbour Town, but there’s still plenty of value outside of those two contingents that won’t pressure you to ration starts.

After this good, old-fashioned cage match in the shadow of the Harbour Town Lighthouse, we will rest. Next week’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans is an off-week because it’s a team competition. The Golfbet Insider will publish as usual, but there will be no relevance to PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Justin Thomas (+250 = Top 10) … This is a rare instance times three. First, he didn’t appear in the Power Rankings. Second, I attach a Top 10 prop to any golfer about as infrequently as JT doesn’t crack the PR. And third, if I think it’s wise to plunk down a unit for a Top 10, it stands to reason (or at least logic) that he should have been positioned in the PR in the first place. Well, this is the space in which the circles of the Venn diagram don’t overlap. I already was cool for the Masters, so I granted him the slot at No. 13 in the PR and he missed the cut. (See the Recap below.) Because he’s fired up about last week’s shortcoming and he needs to prove to himself that he’s better than that, I like the revenge play at Harbour Town where he’s 4-for-4 with a pair of top 15s. He’s cited struggles in his approach game but he’s tops on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, so that counts for a lot on a track that demands it to contend.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, April 12, at 5:30 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

ALSO STARRING

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Xander Schauffele (+120 = Top 20) … Gotta love getting plus value for him for this finish. On one hand, no matter the construct of a full field, top 20s are harder than they appear, but on the other, he finished inside the top 20 in his last two deep full fields – T19 (PLAYERS) and T10 (Masters). No doubt course-history buffs are cool on the absence of a top 30 in three prior trips, but he hasn’t appeared since the June edition in 2020. He sets up like a gem in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf as an A-lister who presents as a contrarian. His relative value in that game will flatten in other starts in Segment 3.

Tony Finau (-225 = Top 40) … He’s right there beside Schauffele at +120 for a Top 20 but Finau’s punch is a tad lighter, so the objective it to multiple the units to amplify the impact. He also sets up ideally in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf for chasers wishing to save starts on the chalk.

Max Homa (+125 = Top 20) … Essentially the center of the bull’s-eye in terms of his value. Once again, and unfortunately, he failed to deliver in a major and settled for T43 at the Masters. The good news is that there’s always “next” week, and that’s this week! Hit him on the rebound and ignore the T41 in his only appearance here in 2020. That’s exponentially more distant in the past in the context of his career bell curve.

Webb Simpson (+120 = Top 40) … Like all books, BetMGM constantly is offering introductory promotions for free plays, but this is an actual bet that you can make even though it presents as a kick-in. Sure, it speaks to Simpson’s long-running slide, but since 2010, he’s 12-for-12 at Harbour Town with a win (2020), a second (2013) and a T5 (2018) among eight top 40s. Furthermore, in his most recent three starts upon arrival in which he’s reignited with the putter (again), he connected for a T24 at Bay Hill and a T7 at Copperhead. That stick would be a bonus this week on small greens, but the aggregate of the equation is as close to a free play as it gets.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+138 = Top South African)

Wyndham Clark (+125 = Top 40)

Cam Davis (+350 = Top Australasian)

Thomas Detry (+160 = Top 40)

Luke Donald (+275 = Top 40)

Brian Harman (+120 = Top 40)

Tyrrell Hatton (-150 = Top 40)

Tom Kim (-175 = Top 40)

Chris Kirk (-110 = Top 40)

K.H. Lee (+125 = Top 40)

Denny McCarthy (+138 = Top 40)

Keith Mitchell (+120 = Top 40)

Justin Rose (-125 = Top 40)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

C.T. Pan … Back on the PGA TOUR for the first time in five months. He had been treating an injury to his left wrist until making a formal return to competition on the Korn Ferry Tour three weeks ago. In a post on Instagram on Jan. 30 that he’s since deleted, he acknowledged that he’s been approved a medical extension for 2024, if necessary, but he’s guaranteed a spot in the RBC Heritage as the 2019 champion. It’s also the perfect spot to resume his 2022-23 season.

Stephan Jaeger … It’s possible that there’s nothing to see here but he withdrew early from both of his last two commitments (Corales, Valero), so there might be an edge against him in a matchup where available. He’s enjoyed a terrific season but he also missed the cut in his debut here last year.

Bronson Burgoon … In the field at the Korn Ferry Tour’s Veritex Bank Championship. It’s his first live action since he ended an 0-for-4 skid on the PGA TOUR at the Valero Texas Open just over a year ago. No news has surfaced to explain why he’s been out. His fantasy value is just above zero because he has 13 starts on a medical extension, but even full-season salary leaguers divested long ago.

NOTABLE WDs

Rory McIlroy … After missing the cut at the Masters, he’s now failed in nine consecutive chances to complete the career grand slam. In seven starts worldwide in 2023, he’s traded three podium finishes (Win, T2, 3rd) with four results outside the top 25. It’s better than the alternative, but it’s still wild stuff for a guy who went 1-1 in numerous draft leagues this season.

Jason Day … The Aussie has been soaring by capitalizing on one high-leverage opportunity after another. Currently 20th in the FedExCup.

Will Zalatoris … Announced to his followers on Instagram on Monday that he had a microdiscectomy two days prior. He’ll miss the rest of the season, which, as hard as it is to believe, has only 4½ months remaining. Fellow members also known to have had the procedure in recent years include Graham DeLaet, Kevin Chappell and Lanto Griffin. DeLaet had his surgery at age 36 in the summer of 2018. Numerous complications led him to retire from the game and pursue other interests, including broadcasting. Chappell underwent his surgery in late November of the same year. He was 32 at the time. After spreading starts via a Major Medical Extension over three seasons, he lost fully exempt status about 14 months ago and hasn’t regained it. Griffin had his surgery shortly after turning 34 last summer. He’s in the field at Harbour Town this week, and he’s been approved for a medical extension for 2024, if necessary. He was sidelined for six months, so he’s only a combined six starts on the PGA TOUR and Korn Ferry Tour in his return. His last two resulted in a top 20 on each circuit, so there’s reason to continue to be hopeful that he’ll have yielded exactly what he’s wanted by having the surgery. Zalatoris won’t turn 27 until August and he’s fully exempt through 2024, so the expectation is that he’ll experience the best outcome among this foursome. It’s also reasonable to assume that, when he does return, he’ll have a resolve that he doesn’t yet possess. It’s what happens to the soul when you lose something you love for long enough.

Alex Noren … This is the first time that he’s taking a pass on the RBC Heritage since his debut in 2019. He’s 4-for-4 with a pair of top 25s. Meanwhile, with last week’s missed cut at the Masters, he’s now missed the cut in each of his most recent starts in every major.

RECAP – Masters

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer = Result

1 Scottie Scheffler = T10

2 Rory McIlroy = MC

3 Jason Day = T39

4 Jon Rahm = Win

5 Jordan Spieth = T4

6 Xander Schauffele = T10

7 Tony Finau = T26

8 Collin Morikawa = T10

9 Dustin Johnson = T48

10 Sungjae Im = T16

11 Hideki Matsuyama = T16

12 Max Homa = T43

13 Justin Thomas = MC

14 Corey Conners = MC

15 Brooks Koepka = T2

16 Cameron Smith = T34

17 Viktor Hovland = T7

18 Patrick Cantlay = T14

19 Sam Burns = T29

20 Justin Rose = T16

* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

SLEEPERS

Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) = Result

Cameron Champ (+500 = Top 20) = MC

Alex Noren (+375 = Top 20) = MC

Si Woo Kim (+200 = Top 20) = T29

Adrian Meronk = MC

Adam Svensson = MC

GOLFBET INSIDER

Golfer (recommended bet) = Result

*Wild Card: Matt Fitzpatrick (-350 = Top 40) = T10

*Also Starring: Tiger Woods (-200 = Make the Cut) = WD after making the cut

*Also Starring: Shane Lowry (+140 = Top 20) = T16

Also Starring: Tommy Fleetwood (+333 = Top English) = 33rd (Matt Fitzpatrick = T10)

*Tap-In: PARLAY: Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm (Both Top 10 = +210) = T10/Win

Tap-In: PARLAY: Jason Day and Jordan Spieth (Both Top 20 = +175) = T39/T4

Tap-In: Chris Kirk (+250 = Top 20) = T23

Tap-In: Kurt Kitayama (+550 = Top Debutant) = MC

Tap-In: Min Woo Lee (+150 = Top 20) = MC

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