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Betting Stat Pack: Valspar Championship

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Betting Stat Pack: Valspar Championship

    Written by Mike Glasscott @MikeGlasscott

    The week after THE PLAYERS Championship might be for resting and relaxing, but not for the 144 entered at the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida.

    The Copperhead Course, one of the most challenging annually on TOUR, has rolled through the “hills” just north of Tampa every year since 2000. Another week of Bermuda grass and Florida weather is in the cards as there is nothing “resort” about this track. Larry Packard’s timeless design plays to par 71 and stretches 7,340 yards.

    Here’s a look at some of the key stats and metrics for this week, which could help inform your DFS and pre-tournament bets and picks:

    Key Statistics

    Only players listed are competing this week.

    Stats from the current 2022-23 season.

    * - top 10 here last five seasons

    SG: Tee to Green

    11Justin Thomas*
    16Jhonattan Vegas
    17Tommy Fleetwood
    27Luke List
    28Jordan Spieth*
    29Joel Dahmen
    30Ben Griffin
    33Gary Woodland
    37Joseph Bramlett
    38Justin Rose

    -click stat headline above for additional players-

    Unlike Pete Dye’s challenge last week, the Copperhead Course is framed by oak trees and penal rough, up to four inches in places. The water hazards aren’t as plentiful – neither are the bunkers – but they are in play. Getting the ball on the putting surface in regulation is the main challenge this week. The last six winners have all ranked in the top six in this category and Innisbrook has ranked in the top seven on TOUR in this category over the last four editions.

    10Akshay Bhatia
    13Russell Knox
    14Gary Woodland
    16James Hahn
    16Nick Hardy
    20Kevin Roy
    21Chris Stroud
    22Tommy Fleetwood
    26Luke Donald*
    27Davis Riley*

    Each week tells a different story, and the rough this week is chapter and verse. With almost four inches swaying in the breeze under the oaks, finding recovery shots will be just as important as cashing in from the sprinkler line. Well-protected and perched greens are the defense this week. The more chances on the putting surface will reduce stress and keep the crooked numbers off the card. Only two of the last eight winners have been outside the top seven in this category, but none worse than 14th.


    7Maverick McNealy
    10Brian Harman*
    12Denny McCarthy*
    17Taylor Moore
    21SH Kim
    22Cameron Percy
    23Aaron Baddeley
    26Eric Cole
    28Ben Griffin
    30Henrik Norlander

    Ranking in the bottom third of easiest scrambling tracks on TOUR the last four years, saving strokes by getting up and down is necessary. Errant approach shots can be salvaged from sand or rough, as the perfect TifEagle greens will run at a very comfortable 12 feet. Save the stress for the approach shots!

    5Justin Thomas*
    8Garrick Higgo
    9JT Poston
    11Patton Kizzire
    11Jhonattan Vegas
    14Brian Harman*
    18Akshay Bhatia
    18Matt Fitzpatrick*
    18Jordan Spieth*
    18Tommy Fleetwood

    A par-71 layout suggests only three par-5 holes, but not this week as four are on the card. Winners have feasted on this category as five of the last six have ranked in the top five, with four being first or second. Being able to shave shots, or at worst not to lose any, is a recipe for contending on the Copperhead.

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