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Stats Report
  • The Takeaway

    Cut prediction: 3M Open

  • The Takeaway

    Fowler leads in 3M debut, Bubba’s crazy par save and Davis’ flop shot

2021 3M Open, Round 1

Scoring Conditions:

Overall: -0.6 strokes per round
Morning wave: -1.16
Afternoon wave: -0.04

Current cutline (top 65 and ties):

82 players at -1 or better (T64)

Top 3 projected cutline probabilities:

1. 2 under par: 37.6%
2. 3 under par: 36.6%
3. 1 under par: 12.2%

Top 10 win probabilities:

1. Jhonattan Vegas (T1, -7, 10.4%)
2. Rickie Fowler (T1, -7, 8.3%)
3. Troy Merritt (T1, -7, 6.8%)
4. Louis Oosthuizen (T21, -3, 6.6%)
5. Chez Reavie (T7, -5, 4.8%)
6. Roger Sloan (T4, -6, 3.8%)
7. Cameron Tringale (T10, -4, 3.6%)
8. Scott Stallings (T4, -6, 3.6%)
9. Adam Schenk (T4, -6, 3.3%)
10. Keegan Bradley (T21, -3, 2.7%)

NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the 3M Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.


Win probabilities: 3M Open