November 08, 2018
By Matthew and Will Courchene, PGATOUR.COM
Rickie Fowler birdies No. 16 at Mayakoba
Here are the key takeaways from our live predictive model after the first round of the Mayakoba Golf Classic.
El Camaleon Golf Course played easy throughout the day, but especially so for the morning wave of golfers who averaged about a stroke better than their afternoon counterparts. Here are the hole-by-hole scoring averages from Thursday, split by morning and afternoon wave:
According to our model, no player is guaranteed to make it to the weekend (i.e. has a made cut probability of 100 percent). This is pretty rare, and speaks to how bunched the leaderboard currently is. Here’s how we are currently projecting the cutline:
4 under par: 28 percent
3 under par: 26 percent
5 under par: 18 percent
Finally, here are the model’s top 10 win probabilities. Rickie Fowler, who was the model’s pre-tournament favorite, leads the way:
NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Mayakoba Golf Classic, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.