Sleeper Picks: Wells Fargo Championship

Jhonattan Vegas(+225 for a Top 20) … With a little less than half the field having been tested by TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in 2017 and/or 2018, and with four years having elapsed since the last edition of the Quicken Loans National, memories of the greens will be fuzzy. As a result, the theme of the Power Rankings was ball-striking and short game. The Venezuelan is just so-so when it comes to small ball, but he’s carved out a career with power and precision. He’s 11th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 35th in greens hit and 37th in SG: Tee-to-Green. He’s also connected for four top 20s this season, including in each of his last two starts. He's been sidelined since having surgery on his right elbow on April 4, but he's looking and sounding confident upon arrival. The key is that he doesn't have to return this soon, but he is.

Joel Dahmen(+250 for a Top 20) … Not that he’d remember it this way, but his first and only trip to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in 2018 served as the endpoint of the years when he still wasn’t posting results proving that he belonged at this level. A T23 at the Quicken Loans National that summer was the latest in a series of top 25s, but it wasn’t until he ripped off a T5-T2-T15-T8 heater immediately thereafter that he clinched his first appearance in the FedExCup Playoffs. Four seasons later and he’s poised for his fifth consecutive trip. His 2022 includes a pair of top 15s and he’s failed to cash in only three of 16 events on the season. One of the most accurate off the tee and on approach, both attributes that feed into the kind of profile that the temporary host course requires.

Cam Davis(+333 for a Top 20) … If the most recent performance can be used to predict the next, then he would have appeared in the Power Rankings. The 27-year-old Aussie shared third place in his last start at Harbour Town with a tidy combination of maximizing his average of 11 greens in regulation per round with a strong game around the greens that landed him T3 in scrambling. Those splits would work again at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm where the targets are similarly small and salvaging pars will be more difficult from gnarlier rough, but we’ll get to see if can replicate what earned this attention in the first place.

Martin Laird(+300 for a Top 20) … The four-time winner from Scotland will turn 40 in December. Since splashing on the PGA TOUR in 2008, the through line of his trajectory has been ball-striking. As he preps for his 339th career start, he slots fifth in total driving, 36th in greens in regulation and 25th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, so the more things have changed, the more he’s stayed the same. As a bonus, he’s also 23rd in scrambling. His is an overall model that worked well here in 2017 en route to a T3 and should again this week.

Matthias Schwab(+400 for a Top 20) … Unlike one of last week’s star performers, Kurt Kitayama (T2), Schwab is a PGA TOUR rookie even though both are first-time members this season. Also like Kitayama, rookies Aaron Rai and David Lipsky are two-time winners on the DP WORLD Tour. That’s where the winless Schwab falls short, but all four are in the field this week. Before the other three caught fire of late, it was the Austrian who ignited for a T7 at The Honda Classic where fellow countryman, Sepp Straka, broke through. Schwab followed with an identical finish in Puerto Rico, and then added a T8 in San Antonio. Because TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm won’t expose his relative weakness in terms of distance off the tee, he can lean on a strong aerial attack into the small targets and flash his world-class flatstick on them.

Odds were sourced on Tuesday, May 3, 2022. For live odds, visit BetMGM.